Calendar for Tuesday, September 16, 2025: U.S. Retail Sales, Germany's ZEW, EU and U.S. Industry, Canada CPI, API Oil Report; Earnings Reports from Ferguson, Flux Power, and Evolution Petroleum. Key Highlights for CIS Investors.
Trade Negotiations and Geopolitics
The U.S. and China are signaling a thaw in relations. During negotiations in Madrid, representatives from both countries announced a framework agreement that could lead to a resolution of the TikTok dispute—this reduces tensions in the tech sector. Additionally, a phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is expected later this week to discuss future trade relations. Simultaneously, the U.S. and India are rekindling trade talks: negotiations are underway today in New Delhi following a recent exchange of increased tariffs. Markets are hopeful that the parties will find a compromise and avoid escalating tensions. Overall, the geopolitical backdrop is moderately positive: the risk of full-scale trade wars has decreased, although regional conflicts and sanctions still temper excessive optimism.
Key Macroeconomic Publications (Moscow Time)
- 09:00 – United Kingdom: Unemployment Rate (June-August) and Change in Jobless Claims. A slight deterioration in metrics is anticipated, which may weaken the pound.
- 12:00 – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September). A decline in the indicator is expected amid business caution in the energy crisis and weak industrial growth.
- 15:30 – United States: Retail Sales for August (Total and Excluding Autos). Forecast: +0.3% month-on-month (previous value +0.5%), signaling a possible cooling in consumer activity.
These statistical reports will set the tone for trading in financial markets. Special attention will be paid to American data: the resilience of consumer spending (through retail sales dynamics) will influence expectations regarding Fed policy. Notably, U.S. CPI for August showed a slight acceleration but remains around 3% year-on-year—this enhances the likelihood of maintaining a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes. European figures (business confidence in Germany, labor market in the UK) will provide insights into the regional economy and may temporarily influence the euro and pound exchange rates. Should actual figures significantly deviate from forecasts, heightened volatility in the currency market is possible.
U.S. Corporate Earnings Reports (Ferguson, Flux Power, Evolution Petroleum, etc.)
The U.S. corporate calendar for September 16 includes several reports that could attract investor attention:
- Ferguson plc: A major distributor of building materials and engineering equipment will report results for Q4 and the entire fiscal year 2025 (publication expected before market open). Ferguson's results will provide insights into demand in the construction sector. Revenue growth is anticipated due to robust demand for building materials in North America, while investors will evaluate the company's profit dynamics amid rising costs.
- Flux Power Holdings: A manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries for industrial equipment will release its Q4 and 2025 fiscal year report after market close. The market expects significant revenue growth, although the company remains unprofitable. Investors will look for signals of the company's approach to operational profitability and monitor management's comments on new orders.
- Evolution Petroleum: An independent oil and gas company from Texas will report its results for the completed fiscal year (report expected post-market close). Increased oil prices are expected to have boosted the company's profits. Key focus areas include production volumes, cash flow, and potential changes in dividend policy.
Aside from these three, several smaller companies will publish reports today, but they typically do not impact the broader market significantly. Overall, Wall Street remains focused on macro factors and the upcoming Fed decision, meaning even notable deviations in individual issuer reports are unlikely to influence the overall trend.
European Corporate Reports
In Europe, no major corporate releases are scheduled for September 16—none of the leading issuers in the region will publish reports today. Only a few mid-cap companies will disclose results, and their impact on the market will be minimal. In the absence of significant reports, European investors are turning their attention to the macroeconomic backdrop and external signals. Movements in key indices will be determined by morning data, primarily the ZEW index, and the dynamics of external markets. Weak statistics could intensify pressure on cyclicals, while positive surprises may support the market, partly compensating for the informational lull in the corporate front.
Asian Corporate Reports
In the Asia-Pacific region, there are also no scheduled earnings reports from major companies on September 16. The quarterly results season in most Asian countries has either concluded or key reports will be released closer to the end of the month. Thus, Asian markets will mainly focus on external factors and domestic economic news. In Japan, optimism persists: the Nikkei 225 index has reached record levels due to expectations of government stimulus measures and a weak yen, which support exporters. Conversely, sentiment in China is more cautious—fresh data indicates a slowdown in the economy (retail sales growth in August was only +3.4% year-on-year), heightening expectations for new stimulus from authorities. As a result, Asian exchanges are balancing between optimism in Japan and caution in China, without significant momentum from today’s corporate news.
Russian Companies and Moscow Exchange Index
On September 16, the Russian stock market will be influenced by external trends, as the earnings season for the largest domestic issuers has already concluded, and no new publications are expected today. Following the previous session, the Moscow Exchange Index corrected after recent weeks of growth—investors took profits in anticipation of further signals. The absence of fresh corporate drivers means that key factors for Moscow trading will be oil prices and sentiments in global exchanges. Export-oriented companies are receiving support from a weak ruble and favorable commodity prices, although ruble volatility adds uncertainty to forecasts. Overall, the Russian market will focus on external conditions and global investor sentiment.
Commodity Markets: Oil and the API Report
Oil remains a critical benchmark for the commodity segment and stock market. On the morning of September 16, Brent crude oil prices are around $67 per barrel, remaining within a narrow range. On one hand, production cuts from OPEC+ continue to support prices; on the other, concerns about demand amid slowing economies in China and Europe are limiting price growth.
The weekly API report on U.S. oil inventories will be released late this evening and could influence price movements. If the API data shows a substantial decrease in commercial inventories, this would signal robust demand and push oil prices up. Conversely, if inventory growth exceeds expectations, prices could decline due to market oversupply fears. While the official EIA data will be released tomorrow, market participants traditionally react to the API assessment in advance. Price fluctuations following the API report are significant for oil and gas stocks and overall risk appetite.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Macroeconomic Data: Releases on U.S. retail sales and business activity indices in Europe today will largely shape market sentiment. Unexpected deviations in metrics could alter rate expectations and the overall market trend.
- Trade Negotiations: News regarding the progress of U.S.–China and U.S.–India dialogues will impact risk appetite, especially in the industrial and technology sectors.
- Corporate Reports: Results from Ferguson, Flux Power, Evolution Petroleum, and other companies will shed light on conditions in construction, green energy, and oil and gas. Stock reactions to these reports will indicate investor sentiment in the respective sectors.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: Price fluctuations following the API report are important for oil and gas shares and overall risk appetite.
- Russian Market: The Russian market will be driven by external factors—from the outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting to the dynamics of global exchanges—as there are no domestic catalysts today.
