Current Energy Sector News as of September 12, 2025: Global Oil and Gas, Sanction Pressures, Stabilization of the Russian Fuel Market, Record Gas Reserves in Europe, and New Trends in Energy Transition. A Detailed Overview for Investors and Industry Stakeholders.
As of September 12, 2025, developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) reveal mixed dynamics in global markets with notable activity in the sector. The global oil market maintains relatively stable prices: Brent crude trades around the mid-$60 per barrel due to an oversupply and slowed demand. Geopolitical risks, including escalating conflicts in the Middle East, are preventing deeper price declines and occasionally causing short-term fluctuations. The European gas market is confidently approaching winter with record storage levels, which keeps gas prices at a moderate level. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are recording new highs in renewable energy development, although traditional resources remain essential for the reliability of energy systems.
Facing intensified Western sanctions, Russia continues to redirect its energy resource exports eastward, strengthening cooperation with Asian partners. New deals are being made for oil and gas supply to India, China, and Central Asian countries, while infrastructure projects (oil and gas pipelines) are being expanded to compensate for reduced export volumes to Europe. Following a summer surge in fuel prices, the government implemented a series of stabilization measures on the domestic fuel market: the ban on gasoline and diesel exports has been extended, control over fuel supply to gas stations has been strengthened, and a dampening mechanism is being adjusted. The first effects are already visible: wholesale prices for petroleum products have stopped rising, and the retail market is stabilizing. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Maintains Prices Amid Geopolitical Risks
As autumn begins, a fragile equilibrium has settled in the global oil market. North Sea Brent is trading between $65 and $67 per barrel, while American WTI is around $62 to $64. Current levels are approximately 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Total supply exceeds demand, which prevents prices from rising; however, geopolitical tensions do not allow quotations to fall sharply. Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Policy. In an online meeting on September 7, OPEC+ countries agreed on a modest increase in production quotas starting in October—approximately 137,000 barrels per day. For comparison, the total quota will increase by 547,000 barrels per day in September. OPEC+ intends to avoid oversaturating the market, so if signs of oversupply intensify, the alliance may suspend further production increases.
- Record Production Outside OPEC. Non-OPEC countries are also increasing production. In the summer, U.S. oil production exceeded 13.5 million barrels per day—a historical maximum—contributing the largest share to global supply. Additional volumes are coming from Brazil, Guyana, and other new production centers. The rising competition among exporters reduces the impact of OPEC+ decisions on market conditions.
- Slower Demand Growth. Global oil consumption is growing much more slowly than before. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand will rise by only approximately 0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (in 2023, the increase exceeded 2.5 million). OPEC forecasts an increase of around +1.2 million barrels per day. The reasons include the overall slowdown in the global economy following an active recovery phase, as well as the effect of high prices in previous years encouraging energy conservation. Additionally, a slowdown in industrial activity in China is impacting the demand of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Risks. The ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East continue to keep market nerves frayed. The U.S. is tightening sanctions: 100% tariffs on oil imports to India have been imposed as punishment for continued purchases of Russian raw materials (similar measures threaten China if imports from Russia surge). The European Union has also expanded restrictions against carriers and traders aiding in circumventing the oil embargo. Moreover, in recent weeks, there have been increased drone attacks on energy infrastructure in conflict zones, with drone strikes incapacitating refineries and segments of export pipelines. While global oil supplies currently compensate for local losses, heightened military risks could jolt the market at any moment.
As a result of the combination of oversupply and weak demand, oil has yet to receive a significant impulse for a new rally. Market quotes remain noticeably lower than last year's highs. Analysts note that if current trends persist, by 2026, the average Brent price could drop to $55–60 per barrel. However, the presence of "insurance" in the form of cautious OPEC+ policy and a geopolitical risk premium suggests a relatively narrow price corridor is likely to be maintained through fall. The chances of a sharp price collapse are slim, but conditions for a price surge are not currently in sight.
Gas Market: Record Reserves in Europe Ensure Stable Prices
In the gas market, the primary focus is on Europe, which is confidently preparing for the autumn-winter period. EU countries have proactively filled underground storage facilities (USFs) with record volumes of gas: by early September, reserves exceeded 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of last year's schedule. This figure is already above the official target of 90%, which was initially set for early November. Active inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the summer allowed for rapid filling of storages to historical highs. As a result, exchange prices for gas remain at relatively low levels: futures on the Dutch TTF hub hover around €30/MWh (approximately $400 per thousand cubic meters), significantly lower than the peaks of 2022.
Experts warn of potential risks ahead. If the economies of Asian countries begin to accelerate, competition for LNG could intensify and lead to rising prices. However, as of now, the balance of supply and demand in Europe appears stable. Record gas reserves create a buffer before winter, reducing the likelihood of price spikes even in the event of cold weather or temporary supply disruptions. European industries and power generation benefit from moderate gas prices, helping to mitigate inflationary pressure. Overall, the European gas market is entering winter with a comfortable level of resource provision.
Geopolitics: Sanction Pressures and Regional Conflicts
Political factors continue to exert a significant influence on the energy sector. The United States and its allies, in light of the protracted crisis surrounding Ukraine, are ramping up sanction pressures on Russia. Aside from price restrictions on Russian oil, new sanctions are being imposed against companies and shipping carriers participating in the export of energy resources in evasion of the embargo. Washington is directly linking any easing of sanctions to progress in resolving the conflict; conversely, the lack of movement threatens new restrictions. Meanwhile, non-Western countries continue to collaborate with Russia, taking advantage of favorable conditions—a situation that riles Western capitals and provokes targeted measures.
Another factor of instability is the rising tension in the Middle East. In September, the military conflict in one of the Middle Eastern regions escalated, causing a spike in oil prices to local highs seen in recent months. While this crisis has limited direct impact on global oil supplies, the market has begun to price in a risk premium for possible conflict escalation. Traders are closely monitoring the situation; any hints of threats to oil infrastructure or transport routes in the region are swiftly reflected in prices. Thus, geopolitics currently plays a dual role: on one hand, it prevents energy prices from falling too low, but on the other, it does not create sufficient conditions for a sharp rise, maintaining a state of uncertainty.
Asia: Rising Energy Resource Imports and Domestic Production
- India. Faced with Western sanction pressures, New Delhi openly states that it cannot abruptly abandon critically important Russian energy resources. Oil and petroleum products from Russia play a key role in meeting India’s growing demand. Russian companies are attracting Indian buyers with substantial discounts (estimates suggest discounts reach $4–5 against Brent prices), which continues purchases even under the threat of American tariffs. At the same time, the Indian government is taking steps to reduce future import dependence: large-scale programs to boost domestic production have been launched. Notably, the state-owned company ONGC is conducting exploratory drilling in deep offshore areas, hoping to discover new oil and gas fields in the coming years.
- China. Beijing, having not joined Western sanctions, remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas at preferential rates while simultaneously increasing domestic production. According to customs statistics from the PRC, in 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of gas—these volumes grew by 2% and 6% respectively year-on-year. In 2025, imports continue to grow at a more moderate pace due to the high base. Despite efforts to boost production (in the first seven months of 2025, China produced 126.5 million tons of oil and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas, an increase of 1-6% compared to the previous year), the Chinese economy remains reliant on imports for approximately 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. In a bid to bolster energy security, Beijing is accelerating joint projects with Russia: during the Eastern Economic Forum, agreements on the "Power of Siberia-2" gas pipeline and expansion of export routes were concluded. These steps will potentially enable China to receive up to 100 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually, further linking the energy systems of the two countries.
Overall, the largest Asian economies continue to play a crucial role in global commodity markets. India and China are combining domestic capacity increases with the importation of affordable resources, aiming to satisfy the needs of their rapidly growing economies. Their balancing act between external procurement and the development of their resource bases will determine global demand for oil and gas in the coming years.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Energy
The global transition to clean energy is entering a new phase in 2025. In the European Union, by the end of 2024, the total electricity generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed that from coal and gas plants for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025, with the commissioning of new renewable energy capacities advancing at an accelerated pace. According to the European Commission's forecasts, approximately 90 GW of solar and wind power plants will be launched in EU countries this year—a record increase evidencing commitment to the energy transition. In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historical levels: more than 30% of total generation now comes from renewables, and electricity production from solar and wind has surpassed that from coal plants for the first time. China, the world leader in renewable installed capacity, is adding tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines annually, setting its own records in "green" generation.
Investment in alternative energy is coming from both private and public entities. According to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds directed towards renewable energy projects, modernization of grid infrastructure, and energy storage systems. However, the rapid growth of renewable energy presents new challenges. Energy systems must adapt to the increasing share of variable sources; backup capacities and energy storage are required to balance the grid when the sun is not shining or the wind dies down. Many countries are actively developing industrial batteries, pumped-storage hydropower plants, and "smart" grids to enhance the flexibility and reliability of power supplies. Thus, the energy transition is confidently advancing, setting records, while simultaneously requiring substantial investments in infrastructure and the maintenance of reserve capacity.
Traditional Energy: Coal and Nuclear Remain Key Players
Despite the shift toward decarbonization in many countries, traditional energy sources continue to hold a significant place in global energy. The global coal market remains resilient, driven by sustained high demand, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. China, the largest producer and consumer of coal, maintains production levels above 4 billion tons annually, primarily sufficing its own needs. Nonetheless, domestic volumes barely meet peak demands: during heat waves and maximum loading on China's power grids, the country continues to import coal to avoid shortages. India is also increasing its coal usage: approximately 70% of the nation’s electricity comes from coal-fired power plants, with absolute coal consumption rising in tandem with economic growth. Several other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, etc.) are constructing new coal power units to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity.
Major coal exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—have increased their production and export deliveries in recent years. This has helped lower global prices from the extreme levels of 2022 to more moderate values and keep them stable. While many developed countries declare plans to phase out coal in the future, in practice, some are delaying the closure of coal plants due to energy security concerns. Notably, Italy has postponed the timeline for completely abandoning coal generation, recognizing the necessity of this fuel in the coming years. Besides coal, there is a growing focus on nuclear energy as a clean and reliable source of baseload generation. Russia, through state corporation "Rosatom," is implementing projects for building new nuclear power plants abroad—from the Middle East to Southeast Asia, while at home, it is extending the operational life of existing units and preparing sites for new ones. Nuclear generation, alongside coal, ensures the stable operation of energy systems, complementing the varying character of renewables. For investors, this indicates that traditional segments—coal, oil, gas, and nuclear—will remain in demand in the foreseeable future. The demand for fossil fuels will persist, and prices will reside within a relatively balanced range without sharp fluctuations as long as unforeseen shocks do not occur.
The Russian Oil Products Market: Stabilization of Fuel Prices
As autumn begins, the results of the government’s emergency measures aimed at normalizing prices have become noticeably evident in Russia's domestic fuel market. During the summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel hit historical highs: in August, the price of AI-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange surpassed 82,000 rubles per ton, exceeding the records of 2023. Contributing factors included heightened seasonal demand, planned repairs at several refineries, and excessive export profitability, which prompted companies to redirect fuel abroad. The sharp price spike prompted a rapid government intervention. Beginning in August, the government imposed a complete ban on the export of automobile gasoline and diesel fuel to redirect additional volumes to the domestic market. Initially, the embargo was set for three weeks but was subsequently extended: for vertically integrated oil companies until September 30, and for independent traders and smaller refineries until the end of October.
In addition to export restrictions, a package of other stabilization steps has been implemented. State control over the distribution of petroleum products has been intensified: oil refineries have been mandated to prioritize supplying Russian gas stations, minimizing sales through exchanges (from where resources could leave for export). Authorities are encouraging direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing intermediaries and speculators. The dampening mechanism—a reverse excise tax system—continues to operate, compensating oil companies for part of the lost revenue from selling fuel domestically. In September, a decision was made to retroactively adjust the parameters of the dampening mechanism effective from August 1, raising the threshold prices from which compensations are calculated (by about +5% over previous levels). This measure will increase budget payouts to refiners and further reduce their incentives to export fuel.
Thanks to this package of measures, by early September, the situation in the fuel market had calmed considerably. Wholesale prices stopped rising and, in certain weeks, even decreased. Retail prices at gas stations are being kept under control: since the beginning of the year, gasoline and diesel prices have increased by less than 5% on average nationwide, aligning with overall inflation and significantly lower than the summer price surge. The government has stated its readiness to extend export restrictions if necessary and utilize additional resources (including fuel sales from reserves) to prevent shortages in the regions. As a result, the Russian oil products market has approached equilibrium this fall: fuel is sufficiently available, and consumer prices have stabilized at acceptable levels.
Simultaneously, new approaches to long-term price regulation are being discussed within the industry. The Russian Fuel Union (RTS) has proposed moving away from a rigid link of gas station price increases to inflation and instead using a broader index that considers the tax burden, tariffs, and other industry costs. Experts view this initiative ambivalently: it may broaden the monitoring tools available to regulators but will not eliminate fundamental imbalances. In particular, specialists emphasize the need to improve the profitability of oil refining and fuel retail to ease the price pressures.
Comment: "The new indicator will merely expand the toolkit with which regulators monitor the fuel market’s state. To change the situation, we need to enhance the profitability of oil refining and fuel retail, including through lowering excise taxes on gasoline and diesel. The higher the profitability, the less need for oil producers to compensate for losses by increasing prices," noted Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market, in a comment for "Russian Gazeta".
Thus, the government's comprehensive emergency measures have yielded initial results, stabilizing the situation in the fuel market. Authorities are committed to maintaining a proactive approach, preventing price spikes and ensuring a balance of interests between producers and consumers. The autumn period finds the FEC in a more sustainable state: oil quotations are holding within a comfortable range, the gas sector is prepared for winter, renewable energy is setting records, and the domestic fuel market is under control. These trends create a favorable backdrop for investors and companies in the industry, although persistent geopolitical risks necessitate ongoing monitoring and flexible responses to market changes.
