Economic News for Friday, September 12, 2025: Decision of the Central Bank of Russia on the Key Rate, UK GDP, Inflation in Germany, Consumer Sentiment in the USA, WASDE Report, Baker Hughes Data, and Corporate Reports. Analytics for Investors.
The final day of the workweek, September 12, 2025, is filled with significant events in the economy and finance sectors. Investors from the CIS countries are focused on the decision of the Central Bank of Russia regarding the interest rate, fresh macroeconomic data from Europe (the UK and Germany), and consumer sentiment indicators in the USA. Additionally, reports from the US Department of Agriculture on global commodity markets and traditional statistics from the oil and gas sector are expected. In the corporate segment, the publication of financial reports from large public companies in the USA, Europe, and Russia continues. Below are structured overviews of the day’s key events and corporate reports important for investors.
Decision of the Central Bank of Russia on the Key Rate
**Russia: Central Bank of the Russian Federation interest rate (1:30 PM MSK)** – The central event of the day for the Russian market: meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia. The current key interest rate stands at 18% per annum after a reduction in July, and the regulator is now considering the possibility of further softening of monetary policy. The slowdown in inflation in August (annual price growth fell to around 8% from the previous 8.8%) and the relative stabilization of the ruble provide grounds to expect a rate decrease. Most analysts anticipate a reduction of **150-200 basis points**, to a level of **16-16.5%** per annum. Such a decision, if made, aims to support economic growth by making credit resources cheaper; however, the Central Bank of Russia will act cautiously, given the still elevated inflation expectations among the population and external risks. The final announcement regarding the rate will be made at 1:30 PM Moscow time, followed by a press conference with the Central Bank management an hour and a half later.
- Press conference of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (3:00 PM MSK): The Head of the Central Bank of Russia will explain the motives behind the decision and update macroeconomic forecasts during the press meeting. Investors will closely monitor the regulator's comments on inflation dynamics, the ruble exchange rate, and the state of the economy. Any signals regarding the future trajectory of interest rate policy (for instance, the possibility of further rate cuts by the end of the year) could impact the Russian stock market and currency.
UK: GDP Release for July
**UK: GDP for July (9:00 AM MSK)** – The data on economic activity in the United Kingdom for the first month of the third quarter will be released in the morning. The previous figure for June showed solid growth — the UK GDP increased by 0.4% month-on-month, partially compensating for the decline in May. In July, analysts anticipate a more moderate dynamic: possibly close to **0% (stagnation)** or slight growth, considering that part of the one-time jump in June was attributed to recovery from strikes and other temporary factors. The publication will indicate whether the UK economy managed to maintain its growth momentum over the summer. Particular attention will be paid to the structure: the contribution of the service sector, industry, and construction. For investors, this data is crucial regarding the prospects for the Bank of England’s monetary policy and the overall state of one of the leading economies in Europe. Stronger than expected GDP growth could support the British pound and the UK stock market, while weak figures would intensify discussions about a possible recession and the regulator's cautious stance on rate hikes.
Germany: Final Inflation Data (August)
**Germany: Consumer Price Index (August, final data, 9:00 AM MSK)** – The largest economy in the Eurozone will publish the final inflation estimate for August. Preliminary data indicated a slight acceleration in price growth: **around +2.2% year-on-year** (compared to 2.0% in July). Monthly inflation in August was nearly absent – prices rose by approximately +0.1% compared to July. Confirmation of these figures is expected. Investors are also focused on **core inflation** (excluding energy and food prices), which remains above the overall level – around 2.7%, indicating persistent internal price pressure. Although the European Central Bank held a meeting the day before, the final data from Germany will help assess the effectiveness of the ECB's measures and consumer sentiment in the leading countries of the bloc. A sustained slowdown in inflation in Germany could support the ECB's dovish stance, but if price pressure persists, it would maintain the likelihood of further stringent measures. For the EU market, the German CPI is one of the barometers that influence euro exchange rates, bond yields, and the dynamics of interest-sensitive sectors.
USA: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
**USA: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (September, preliminary data, 5:00 PM MSK)** – In the second half of the day, the first estimates of the September consumer sentiment index in the USA will be released. In August, the indicator unexpectedly dropped to **58.2 points**, demonstrating deteriorating sentiment due to rising prices and more pessimistic expectations regarding the economy. According to forecasts, the index may slightly recover in September – an expected value of around **59–60 points**, indicating cautious optimism among American households. Investors will analyze the components of the indicator: current conditions (evaluation of personal finances and conditions for major purchases) and expectations for the coming months. An improvement in September’s sentiment could signal resilience in consumer spending in the USA at the beginning of autumn, which would be positive for markets. However, if confidence remains at low levels, it could be a cautionary factor – declining consumer confidence sometimes precedes a slowdown in economic activity.
- US Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Along with the confidence index, inflation expectations of Americans are published. Preliminary data for August showed an increase in expectations: one-year ahead inflation was forecasted to rise to **4.8%**, while long-term (5-year) expectations climbed to **3.5%**. These figures exceed the Fed's target level and attract the attention of investors. It will be important to see in the September survey whether expectations have decreased after the recent cooling of inflation or remain high. If consumers continue to expect high inflation, it may be harder for the Federal Reserve to transition to a more accommodative policy. Conversely, a decline in inflation expectations would be a positive signal regarding confidence in the Fed’s efforts to control prices.
USDA WASDE Report on Agricultural Markets
**USA: Monthly WASDE Report (7:00 PM MSK)** – In the evening, the US Department of Agriculture will release the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which is significant for global commodity markets. The September report will update forecasts for the harvest of grains and oilseeds in the USA and other countries, as well as estimates for global demand and stocks. Traders are particularly interested in data on **corn, soybeans, and wheat**: the past summer, with its weather anomalies, could have impacted yields in North America and Europe. If the USDA lowers production forecasts due to drought or heat, prices for corresponding futures may rise on expectations of shortages. On the other hand, an improved harvest forecast (for example, due to favorable weather in August) could weaken agricultural product prices. For Russian investors, the WASDE report is also of interest because Russia is the largest exporter of wheat, and changes in the global grain balance may affect export revenues and the shares of Russian agricultural companies. The report will be released at 7:00 PM MSK, and shortly after publication, price fluctuations in grain and oilseed futures may begin on exchanges.
Oil and Gas Sector: Baker Hughes Rig Count Report
**USA: Active Rig Count (Baker Hughes report, 8:00 PM MSK)** – Traditionally, an update on the number of active oil and gas rigs in the USA is published on Friday evenings. This indicator serves as a leading indicator for energy resource production. In recent months, there has been a trend toward a reduction in the number of rigs: companies in the shale extraction sector have been limiting new investments, focusing on profit and shareholder capital returns. As of early September, the total number of rigs in the USA was approximately **535-540 units**, below levels from the previous year. New data will show whether this decline has continued. A decrease in oil rigs indicates a possible slowdown in future oil production growth, which, all else being equal, supports oil prices. This week, oil prices were volatile: after rising to multi-month highs at the beginning of the month, there was a slight correction due to signals of sufficient supply and signs of cooling demand in the USA. However, if the Baker Hughes report indicates an increase in the number of rigs, this may be perceived by the market as a sign of producers' intentions to ramp up production, potentially limiting further price growth. Investors are also focused on how the stabilization of oil prices around $80–85 per barrel will affect the drilling plans of oil and gas companies in the second half of 2025.
Corporate Reports: Global and Russian Companies
International Corporations: On the closing day of the week, there are few major quarterly reports, but investors continue to digest publications from companies released in previous days. The most resonating results came from US tech giants and consumer companies:
- Oracle (USA, IT sector): The software giant presented its report for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year. Oracle's revenue grew by approximately 11% year-on-year, reaching around $14.9 billion, largely due to rapid growth in cloud divisions (cloud infrastructure +50% and SaaS applications +28%). Earnings per share amounted to $1.47 (non-GAAP), in line with analysts' expectations. Investors were also pleased with Oracle's large backlog in cloud services, related to demand for AI solutions. Oracle's shares reacted positively, indicating market confidence in the company's long-term cloud strategy.
- Adobe (USA, IT sector): The software developer for design and marketing published results for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year. Adobe's revenue increased by a double-digit amount (~+10% year-on-year) to $5.87 billion, slightly exceeding consensus forecasts. Net income and earnings per share also improved, continuing the trend of stable business growth. Adobe's Digital Media and cloud services segments showed steady customer influx due to high demand for Creative Cloud and Document Cloud products. Management confirmed a positive outlook for Q4, which supported the company's shares and positive sentiment in the tech sector.
- Kroger (USA, retail): One of the largest retail chains (supermarkets) in the USA reported better-than-expected results for Q2 of 2025. Comparable sales (like-for-like) excluding fuel increased by 3.4%, while adjusted operating income rose by approximately 11%. Kroger also raised its full-year profit forecast, citing effective cost management and steady consumer demand for food and daily necessities. These results signal that American consumer demand remains stable even amid rising prices, which is positive for the retail sector.
- Chewy (USA, e-commerce): The online pet supply retailer surprised the markets with unexpectedly strong quarterly profits. For Q2 of 2025, Chewy reported net income ($0.33 per share) contrary to the forecasted loss, thanks to revenue growth and improved margins. The company attracted more active customers and increased average order size by expanding its product range. Chewy's report revived optimism among investors regarding the business models of the new economy: the company's stock surged, pulling along other representatives of the e-commerce sector.
- GameStop (USA, electronics retail): The well-known meme stock, video game store chain GameStop, published its Q2 2025 results, showing signs of stabilization. The company's revenue grew at high single digits, and adjusted earnings amounted to about $0.25 per share, exceeding last year's results and average expectations. GameStop management noted cost reductions and the growth of online sales. Although the company's long-term prospects remain debatable, the quarterly profit showed that the restructuring efforts are beginning to yield results. GameStop's shares surged in after-hours trading, continuing the volatile dynamics typical of "meme" stocks.
- Inditex (Spain, global fashion): The European retail giant, owner of the Zara brand, revealed its results for H1 2025. Inditex's sales reached a record €18.4 billion for six months, increasing by ~8% despite a challenging macro environment. The group's net income slightly increased (by fractions of a percent) to €2.5 billion, reflecting steady demand for the brands' products. Management noted the "challenging market conditions," but emphasized the success of the spring-summer collection and the growth of online sales. Inditex shareholders also approved generous payouts: a final dividend payment of €0.84 per share is planned for November, confirming the company's confidence in its financial position. This news supported Inditex shares and generally reinforced investor confidence in Europe's consumer sector.
Russian Companies: In the Russian market, the corporate reporting season is nearing its end, so no major publications are planned for September 12. However, it is worth noting a few local events:
- Mosgorlombard (MGKL): The first public operator of pawnshops in the Russian Federation will present operational results for eight months of 2025. The company recently reported significant growth in financial indicators for the first half of the year (net profit +84% year-on-year), indicating increased demand for collateral loan services. Investors will assess whether this trend continued in July-August.
- Lambumiz: A large producer of cardboard packaging (ticker LMBZ) will publish financial statements under IFRS for the first six months of 2025. The company's half-year turnover exceeds 1.3 billion rubles, and the market expects confirmation of stable growth amid expansion of production capacities and the recent IPO of Lambumiz on the Moscow Exchange.
- KuibyshevAzot: Shareholders of one of Russia's leading chemical companies will hold a meeting to decide on dividends for the first half of 2025. The Board of Directors previously recommended the payment of interim dividends, and if the meeting approves this initiative, shareholders will receive returns reflecting the company's strong financial performance this year.
Overall, Friday, September 12, promises to be eventful for market participants. The combination of key macroeconomic releases and the outcomes of the Central Bank of Russia's meeting will create an informational backdrop capable of provoking increased volatility in exchange rates and asset prices. Simultaneously, ongoing corporate reports provide a broader picture of the state of the global economy – from the tech sector in the USA to consumer demand in Europe and Russia. Investors are advised to carefully monitor the news throughout the day and assess how the data received aligns with their investment strategy and expectations regarding the further development of the financial market situation.
