Economic Events and Corporate Reports July 26 2026: Fed, Big Tech, Oil

Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on July 26, 2026: Markets Closed, but the Week's Agenda is Set — FOMC Decision, Bank of Japan Meeting, Quarterly Results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Shell, and Rio Tinto, and Reaction of the MOEX Index to the CBR's Rate Cut

Sunday, July 26, 2026, is a day without trading and macroeconomic statistics. Global markets are closed, the economic calendar is empty, and Russia celebrates Navy Day. However, for investors, this is not a pause but a window for preparation: ahead lies one of the busiest weeks of the year. Economic events and corporate reports for July 27–31 include the FOMC's interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan meeting, the publication of the US GDP for Q2, the PCE deflator, and quarterly results from companies accounting for a significant portion of S&P 500 capitalization. The backdrop remains the conflict surrounding Iran, keeping Brent oil prices near the three-digit marks.

Market Week Conclusion on Global Markets

The week closed mixed and overall negatively. On Friday, July 24, the S&P 500 added a symbolic 0.05% to close at 7,411.98 points, the Dow Jones rose by 0.46% to 51,947.25, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.64% to 24,975.82. Over the five sessions, all three US indices ended in the red, with Nasdaq losing approximately 2%.

• Key Shock of the Week — Sell-off on Thursday, where the "Fantastic Seven" collectively lost approximately $800 billion in market capitalization.
• Alphabet declined by about 7%, Tesla by 14%: both companies reported negative free cash flow for the quarter amid a sharp increase in investments in AI infrastructure.
• Intel lost nearly 8% on Friday despite reporting better-than-expected results, as the market penalized spending rather than revenue.
• Apple, conversely, gained approximately 3.5% and supported the Dow, reaching historical highs earlier in July.

Meanwhile, the earnings season is going strong: of the first 95 companies in the S&P 500 that reported, around 88% exceeded profit forecasts. The divergence between good numbers and weak stock reactions is a key signal for investors: the market is re-evaluating not profits but capital expenditures.

Oil, Gas, and Gold: Geopolitical Premiums in Prices

Commodity markets remain the main channel for transmitting geopolitical risk to the global economy. On Friday, Brent oil prices fell by approximately 4%, closing around $97 per barrel — the largest daily decline since late June, yet prices increased by more than 12% over the week.

1. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, with some export flows redirected from the Persian Gulf.
2. Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have opened a second front of logistical risks and raised freight rates.
3. Gold remains near historic highs (around $4,100 per ounce), reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven assets.
4. Refining margins for diesel and jet fuel in Europe remain anomalously high amidst low inventories.

Central Banks: FOMC, Bank of Japan, and CBR

The week of July 27–31 is a week of monetary policy.

• Federal Reserve will hold its meeting on July 28–29. The interest rate is currently in the range of 3.50%–3.75%, with no new projections (dot plot) to be published. Futures estimate the likelihood of keeping the rate at around 64%, and an increase of 25 basis points at approximately 35%. The main market event will be the press conference of FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh.
• Bank of Japan will meet on July 30–31 and release its quarterly Outlook Report. The rate, following the June hike, is set at 1.0%; consensus expects a pause, but comments on inflation could sharply shift the yen’s rate.
• Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum on July 24. This marks the tenth consecutive cut and the fifth in 2026. The regulator provided a neutral signal, noting rising inflation expectations and accelerating prices for fuel and fruit-vegetable products while maintaining inflation within the range of 4% to 5% annually.

Corporate Reports of the Week: US and S&P 500 Index

The earnings calendar for American public companies in the upcoming week is the busiest of the quarter:

• Wednesday, July 29: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Public Storage, Humana, Boston Scientific, Biogen, Cognizant.
• Thursday, July 30: Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Valero Energy, Regeneron, Exelon, Xcel Energy.
• Throughout the week: Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Johnson Controls, Amphenol, Garmin, Old Dominion Freight Line, Visa, Coca-Cola, PayPal.

A key question for investors is not revenue, but the capital expenditures of hyperscalers and the dynamics of the Azure and AWS cloud segments.

Europe: Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, and Energy Profit Imbalances

European Q2 earnings show a cumulative profit growth of about 17%, but almost all of this increase is driven by the energy sector. TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net income of about $6 billion (+67% YoY), while Repsol reported €1.84 billion compared to €598 million a year earlier. For the industrial sector, airlines, and consumer sector, oil represents a significant cost.

This week, reports are due from AstraZeneca and Vodafone (July 27), Barclays, GSK, Unilever (July 28), Airbus, Rio Tinto, Standard Chartered, Reckitt, Glencore (July 29), Shell, Lloyds, Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, Anglo American, British American Tobacco, and London Stock Exchange Group (July 30), and NatWest, IAG, ITV, Taylor Wimpey (July 31). The German composite PMI for July returned to growth territory (51.2), slightly improving the outlook for the Eurozone.

Asia: Nikkei 225, Yen, and Chinese Demand

The Japanese market remains near record levels, and a weak yen continues to support exporters: some investment firms have revised their USD/JPY forecasts towards further depreciation of the Japanese currency. Factors determining Asian markets will include the Bank of Japan decision, data on industrial production and inflation in Tokyo, as well as the reactions of Chinese metallurgical and oil refining companies to rising raw material prices.

Russia: MOEX Index After Rate Cut

The Russian stock market completed its week with growth for the first time in nearly twenty weeks. The MOEX index, which had dropped below 2100 points prior to the CBR meeting, regained ground after the rate decision. Leaders on Friday included Rusagro (+35.7% on corporate news), Moscow Exchange (+5.7%), MMK (+4.9%), En+ Group (+4.2%), as well as PhosAgro, Yandex, and NLMK.

Corporate event calendar on MOEX:

• July 27 — Norilsk Nickel: production results for the first half of 2026.
• July 28 — TGK-1 and All Tools: operational results for the first six months.
• July 29 — Akron: annual shareholders' meeting regarding dividends (235 rubles per share).

From previously released information: net profit of Novatek under IFRS for the first half of the year dropped to 218.6 billion rubles. An additional factor is the extension of the OFAC license for negotiations on the sale of Lukoil's international assets until August 22, 2026.

Weekly Macroeconomic Statistics

1. US GDP for Q2 (preliminary estimate) — Thursday.
2. Core PCE deflator for June — a key inflation benchmark for the FOMC.
3. Personal income and spending data for Americans, unemployment benefit claims.
4. Consumer confidence indices for the US and business sentiment indices for the Eurozone.
5. Inflation in Tokyo and industrial production in Japan.

Day's Conclusions: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

1. Capital expenditures are more important than revenue. The market reaction to reports from Alphabet and Tesla showed that it is willing to punish aggressive investments in AI even with strong operational results. The reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will test whether these investments translate into growth in cloud revenue.
2. Double risk from oil. Brent near $100 is simultaneously a support for oil and gas exporters (including the Russian market) and an inflationary tax for industry, transport, and consumers. It's worth assessing which side of this balance your portfolio leans towards.
3. FOMC decision without dot plot. The absence of new projections increases the weight of the statement and press conference wording. The scenario of a rate hike, which the market estimates at about one-third, is undervalued in the pricing of risk assets.
4. New US tariffs. Tariffs of 10%–12.5% for major trading partners that have come into effect will gradually manifest in importer margins and inflation statistics in the autumn.
5. Russian market: easing cycle continues. The cut in the key rate to 14% makes financing cheaper and increases the attractiveness of stocks relative to deposits, but the neutral signal from the CBR and rising inflation expectations call for caution in long-term OFZs.
6. Weekend homework. Check the diversification across regions and sectors, share of defensive assets, and stop-loss levels before trading resumes on Monday — the week promises increased volatility.