Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Saturday, July 25, 2026: A Quiet Macroeconomic Calendar, Weekly Results for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX, Reduction of the Key Rate by the Bank of Russia to 14%, New Tariff Round from the U.S., and Market Preparations for the Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings Reports
Saturday, July 25, 2026, arrives for global markets following one of the most anxious weeks of the second half of the year. No economic publications are scheduled for this day: stock exchanges in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia are closed, official statistics are not released, and corporate reports from large public companies are not due on the weekend. However, such a pause provides investors with an opportunity to piece together the disparate signals from the week into a cohesive picture. Over five trading days, markets received the ECB's decision, a reduction in the key rate by the Bank of Russia, a jump in Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel, a new round of U.S. import tariffs, and the first wave of disappointments concerning artificial intelligence. Economic events and corporate reports on July 25, 2026, should be viewed as a day for reassessing risks ahead of the Fed meeting and the earnings reports from major technology companies.
Macroeconomic Calendar: Why Markets Are Silent on July 25
The global economic calendar for Saturday is empty across all key jurisdictions.
- U.S.: No publications from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS, or regional Federal Reserve Banks are scheduled. The market is digesting the preliminary PMI for July, which showed the fastest growth in business activity in eight months, and a decline in initial jobless claims to the lowest level in 57 years.
- Eurozone: After the ECB meeting and the block of preliminary PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, there is no statistical release. Inflation in the region remains around 2.8% with a target level of 2%.
- Asia: Japan, China, and India have no releases scheduled. Attention is shifting to Chinese PMIs and the Bank of Japan's decision, which are expected at the end of next week.
- Russia: Rosstat and the Bank of Russia have no publications scheduled. Weekly inflation from July 14 to July 20 stood at 0.17%, repeating the previous week’s results.
Weekly Results: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX
The week concluded with a second consecutive drop in the U.S. market. On Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 1.21% and closed at 7,408.30 points—its worst day in more than a month. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.15% to 25,137.69 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.97% to 51,711.65 points. On Friday, indices partially bounced back amid a pullback in oil prices, but the weekly outcome remained negative. The cumulative capitalization of the "magnificent seven" dropped by nearly $800 billion in one Thursday alone.
European indices moved in sync with Wall Street: Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 1.69% on Thursday, DAX was down 1.56%, CAC 40 dropped 1.64%, and FTSE 100 lost 0.73%. The Nikkei 225 maintained positive performance due to a weak yen and a resilient export sector. The Moscow Exchange index dipped below 2,100 points on Friday morning ahead of the Central Bank of Russia's decision, but after the announcement of the meeting results, it shifted towards growth.
Oil and Geopolitics: Brent Surpasses $100 and Retracts to $95
The main source of volatility during the week was the energy market. Following statements from Yemeni Houthis regarding attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Brent oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since late May. U.S. ten-year Treasury yields briefly surged above 4.7%—the highest since the start of the year. On Friday, prices reversed course: Brent lost about 5% and fell below $95 on reports of potential renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran facilitated by third countries. Nevertheless, by the end of the week, oil concluded trading in positive territory, with a significant geopolitical risk premium remaining in its pricing.
New U.S. Tariffs: 10–12.5% for 60 Trade Partners
Starting at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on July 24, the new tariff regime in the U.S. took effect. The administration imposed additional tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 of its largest trade partners, including the EU, China, and India, following an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This measure covers approximately 99.4% of U.S. imports and replaces the expired temporary 10% global tariff. Several energy products have been excluded from these tariffs. For investors, this signifies a new structural cost factor for importers, retail, and industrial supply chains, along with an additional inflationary risk for the Fed.
Corporate Reports for the Week: U.S. Companies in S&P 500
The Q2 2026 earnings season has passed its midpoint. Of the first 95 companies reporting in the S&P 500, about 88% surpassed consensus earnings estimates with a median beat of around 7%. However, the stock market reaction has been asymmetrical: the market penalized increases in capital expenditure more severely than it rewarded earnings growth.
Technology and Artificial Intelligence
- Alphabet (GOOGL)—Revenue grew by 24% to $119.8 billion, earnings per share stood at $9.11, and Google Cloud revenue increased by 82%. However, the doubling of the capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion led to a stock decline of more than 7%.
- Tesla (TSLA)—Revenue increased by 26% to $28.2 billion, but earnings per share fell by 18% to $0.33, and free cash flow turned negative at $1.1 billion. The shares lost about 14%.
- Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM, and ServiceNow (NOW) reported amid a general correction in the semiconductor sector.
Finance, Consumer, and Telecom
- American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), and NextEra Energy (NEE) exceeded profit forecasts on Friday but fell short on revenue.
- Capital One (COF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Blackstone (BX), Chubb (CB), and Comcast (CMCSA) provided additional insights into the financial and media sectors.
Industry, Energy, and Transportation
- General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON), RTX, Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) reflected the resilience of the defense cycle.
- Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX, and Canadian National Railway (CNI) provided a snapshot of industrial activity in North America.
- SLB, Halliburton (HAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Newmont (NEM) are indicators of the raw materials cycle.
Europe and Asia: SAP, STMicroelectronics, and Shin-Etsu Chemical
From companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 and the European sector, SAP SE, STMicroelectronics (STM), and Rogers Communications reported. The Asian block was represented by Japanese chemical giant Shin-Etsu Chemical, which is part of the Nikkei 225 and serves as a leading indicator for the semiconductor supply chain. The overall conclusion for the Old World this week: the industrial segment remains inferior to the service sector, while energy costs remain the primary risk to the margins of European exporters.
Russian Market: Key Rate at 14% and Earnings Reports from MOEX Issuers
On July 24, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum—its fourth easing since the start of the year. The updated medium-term forecast suggests an average key rate in the range of 14.5–14.6% for 2026 and 10.5–12.5% for 2027. The regulator noted moderate economic growth in the second quarter and linked the summer price acceleration mainly to one-off factors while pointing out an increase in inflation expectations. The discussion summary will be published on August 5, with the next meeting scheduled for September 11.
The market reaction was positive: after initially dipping below 2,100 points, the Moscow Exchange index reversed upwards. The dollar rate set by the Bank of Russia as of July 24 stood at 78.4049 rubles. Among the corporate news of the week, the decline in net profit of "NOVATEK" under IFRS for the first half of the year to 218.6 billion rubles stands out, along with mixed earnings from "Rusagro" for the second quarter with a dividend recommendation of 16.48 rubles per share, and the inclusion of "Yandex" shares into the Moscow Exchange value creation index from July 30.
Next Week’s Calendar: The Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Big Tech
- Tuesday, July 28—Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S.
- Wednesday, July 29—Inflation in Australia; Fed rate decision (current range 3.50–3.75%) and press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The meeting will take place without updates to macro forecasts or the dot plot, so the burden falls heavily on the wording of the statement. Reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).
- Thursday, July 30—GDP from Germany and the Eurozone, Bank of England decision, inflation in Germany, U.S. Q2 GDP and PCE deflator, consumer inflation in Japan. Reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
- Friday, July 31—China's business activity indices, Bank of Japan decision (current rate 0.50%) and preliminary Eurozone inflation.
What Investors Should Focus On
- The "oil—yields—Fed" connection. The rise in Brent above $100 combined with record low jobless claims has shifted market expectations towards a tightening of Fed policy. For investors, this means the risk of reevaluating long bonds and growth companies.
- Capital expenditures as a new evaluation criterion. The market’s reaction to Alphabet's report indicated a shift from rewarding scale in AI investments to demanding proof of returns. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will serve as a critical test of this thesis.
- The tariff factor. Tariffs of 10–12.5% on 99.4% of U.S. imports necessitate a reassessment of margin models for retail, consumer goods, and industrial importers.
- Russian assets. The key rate at 14% and an average forecast of 10.5–12.5% for 2027 support long OFZs and leveraged issuers—developers, retail, and transportation. A restraining factor is the season of dividend cut-offs and weak index dynamics since the beginning of July.
- Seasonality. August marks the historical three-month period of weakest performance for the U.S. stock market, strengthening the argument for reducing leverage and verifying hedging positions before the market opens on Monday.
Saturday, July 25, 2026, is a day without quotes but not without conclusions. The global market environment enters the final week of the month with three simultaneous sources of risk: the geopolitical premium in oil, the tariff restructuring of trade flows, and the reevaluation of the artificial intelligence economy. Investors would do well to use this pause for scenario planning across each of these contours and to determine reaction levels in advance—before the Fed's decision and the earnings reports from Big Tech set the tone for the markets in August.
