Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Saturday, February 7, 2026: Elections in Japan, China’s Reserves, and Central Bank Pause

Saturday brings a relative calm following an intense week: financial markets are digesting recent central bank decisions and corporate reports, while investors prepare for a series of events that may set the tone for the start of the new trading week. No significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for today; however, the spotlight is on a global-scale political event: early parliamentary elections in Japan. Simultaneously, market participants are monitoring signals from China (including the update on foreign exchange reserves for January) and assessing the impacts of the suspension of statistical releases in the U.S. due to a temporary government shutdown. In such conditions, Saturday serves as a pause for reassessing positions and preparing for upcoming market movements.

The global macroeconomic landscape shows a lull: major central banks have unanimously decided to keep interest rates steady, confirming a wait-and-see approach. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its rate in the range of 3.5%–3.75% during its January meeting, signaling a desire to evaluate the effects of prior easing measures. The European Central Bank, following its meeting on February 5, also left rates unchanged (the deposit rate remains around 2.15%), noting that inflation in the eurozone is close to the target level, requiring time to analyze price dynamics. The Bank of England voted to keep its rate at 3.75%, a decision made by a majority in a context of declining inflation and moderate economic growth in the UK. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan previously held its key rate at 0.75% in January, but the upcoming **early parliamentary elections** (February 8) may indirectly influence the future monetary policy in the country. Central banks signal a pause in the rate change cycle, allowing markets time to stabilize; bond yields fluctuate within a narrow range, and the currencies of emerging markets find support amid a weaker U.S. dollar. At the same time, investors are monitoring the resumption of operations of U.S. statistical services – the delay in key indicators (such as the January jobs report) adds uncertainty, but reports are expected to resume next week.

U.S. stock markets wrapped up the week cautiously, displaying a mixed dynamic. On Friday, major indices erased some losses: the Dow Jones rose approximately 2%, hitting an all-time high, the S&P 500 added around 1.6%, and the Nasdaq strengthened by approximately 1.8%. However, even this rally could not fully offset the downturn of recent days – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded declines for the week (the third decline in the last four weeks for the tech index). Market pressure earlier in the week stemmed from concerns of overheating in the tech sector and huge spending by industry leaders on artificial intelligence, prompting investors to realize some profits. An additional factor of uncertainty was the delayed publication of key U.S. statistics: due to the government shutdown, the release of the January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which traditionally shapes market sentiment, has been postponed to February 11. In the absence of new data, investors focused on corporate results and forecasts. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remained relatively stable (10-year UST around 4.2%), reflecting expectations of further easing by the Fed during the year. The U.S. dollar slightly weakened against major currencies: the USD index decreased towards the 97–98 mark as the Fed's pause and the absence of surprises in the economy dampened demand for safe-haven assets. Overall, the U.S. market enters the weekend with cautious optimism – participants await the resumption of macro data publication and seek new indicators from corporate announcements.

European stock indices approached the weekend without significant changes, reacting to signals from the ECB and local statistics. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fluctuated within a narrow range last week, ending Friday near previous closing levels. Investors in Europe received confirmation of the anticipated scenario: the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and confirmed that inflation is gradually slowing towards the target of 2%. This reinforced confidence that no further rate hikes would follow in the near term and provided support to interest-sensitive sectors – especially banking and real estate, which benefited from the stabilization of borrowing costs. At the same time, the macroeconomic picture in the region remains mixed. Preliminary GDP data for several eurozone countries for Q4 2025 is expected to be published next week, and the markets are holding their breath: forecasts indicate weak positive growth in Germany and France, but the UK may show stagnation or a symbolic decline. The British FTSE 100 remained close to local highs, despite the BoE's pause – many export-oriented companies benefited from a relatively weak pound. The European energy sector displayed neutral dynamics: oil prices stabilized, and the gas market remained balanced. In the absence of shocks, investors in Europe are focused on corporate news and preparing to assess new data on industrial production and inflation to adjust expectations for ECB policy by March.

Asian markets generally maintain a cautious optimism, although investor attention is shifting to regional events. The central focus of the Asian agenda is Japan, where early general elections to the lower house of parliament are scheduled for Sunday, February 8. Prime Minister Sanae Takahichi aims to strengthen her government’s mandate; political stability or instability may reflect on the dynamics of the yen and Japanese stocks in the early part of the week. Ahead of the elections, the Nikkei 225 index traded without major fluctuations: investors adopted a wait-and-see position, considering that public opinion polls promise the ruling coalition will retain its majority, though the intrigue regarding seat distribution persists. The Japanese market is also processing signals from the Bank of Japan – although the regulator did not change the rate, it indicated that further steps would depend on the post-election economic policies of the government and inflation dynamics, which in Japan has begun to accelerate towards 2%. In China, cautious optimism prevails: official data points to a continued stabilization of the economy. An update on China’s foreign exchange reserves for January is expected today – analysts forecast a figure around $3.35 trillion, comparable to the previous month. Stable foreign exchange reserves indicate a relative balance of capital flows and support for the yuan from the regulator. The mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets demonstrated moderate growth last week amid expectations of stimulus measures: Chinese authorities promised to support the banking sector with additional liquidity ahead of the extended holidays for the Lunar New Year (which falls on February 17). Moreover, investors welcome signs of a recovery in domestic demand – data on industrial production and retail sales, which will be released early next week, will help assess the strength of this trend. Overall, Asian exchanges conclude the week without shocks: MSCI Asia ex-Japan shows a slight increase, supported by growth in India and Southeast Asian markets. Regional currencies, including the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, maintain resilience, benefiting from the Fed’s pause and capital inflows into emerging markets.

The Russian equity and currency market exhibits stability at the end of the week against the backdrop of external calm and internal news. The Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) concluded Friday's trading with a slight increase, consolidating around local highs. This was aided by relatively favorable conditions on commodity markets: Brent oil prices are holding around $65 per barrel, which is comfortable for Russian exporters and the budget. The Russian ruble has slightly strengthened in recent days, trading near 74 rubles per U.S. dollar, supported by stable oil-and-gas revenues and currency sales by exporters under the budget rule. Investors are also assessing fresh macro data: according to the Ministry of Finance, the federal budget deficit for January 2026 is preliminarily estimated at around 1.7 trillion rubles (0.7% of GDP) – significantly higher than a year earlier due to a 50% year-on-year decrease in oil-and-gas revenues (down to 393 billion rubles) while non-oil revenues increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Although such a start to the year raises questions about the stability of fiscal policy, authorities assure that the situation is under control and the deficit will narrow as quarterly tax payments come in. OFZ bonds remain calm: yields on ten-year bonds fluctuate around 10.5%–11%, reflecting expectations of a forthcoming easing of monetary policy. Indeed, all eyes are on the Central Bank of Russia – its next meeting on the key rate is scheduled for February 13. Market participants are assigning a high probability that the CBR will leave the rate at its current level (15% per annum) after a series of hikes in the second half of 2025. A slowdown in inflation in Russia (consumer prices rose by less than 0.5% month-on-month in January) and a strengthening ruble create the conditions for a possible easing of the regulator's tone. However, any potential rate cuts may only happen closer to spring, if inflation expectations solidly decline. Overall, the Russian financial market enters the weekend in a balanced manner: investors are considering high interest rates and budget risks but see support from exports and the readiness of regulators to deploy tools to maintain stability if necessary.

Saturday traditionally does not bring new financial report publications, so investor attention is focused on the outcomes of the completed week and expected releases in the coming days. Globally, the Q4 2025 earnings season continues, and several leading companies have already reported results, setting the tone for the market. Here are some of the most notable cases by region and sector:

Apple (U.S.): The tech giant reported record revenue for the holiday quarter of 2025 – sales reached $143.8 billion (+16% year-on-year) driven by high demand for new iPhone models and growth in service revenues. Earnings and margins also exceeded analysts' forecasts. Apple's management noted the resilience of consumer demand and announced an expansion of the share buyback program, which was positively received by the market: the company’s stock remains close to historic highs.
Amazon (U.S.): The largest e-commerce and cloud company presented mixed results: revenue for Q4 grew by about 14% year-on-year, yet quarterly profit fell short of expectations. Moreover, Amazon's plans for capital expenditures in 2026 (around $200 billion, including investments in AI infrastructure and logistics) concerned investors due to the scale of spending. Following this news, Amazon's shares fell by approximately 8%, reflecting margin concerns. However, management assures that the investments will yield long-term growth in the cloud and advertising segments.
LVMH (Europe): The world's leading luxury goods conglomerate (brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët Hennessy, etc.) reported the results for the 2025 financial year. Annual revenue amounted to approximately €80.8 billion, down about 5% from the record level of 2024, partially due to currency factors and a slowdown in fashion and leather goods sales. Operating profit declined by about 9% year-on-year. LVMH's management noted that demand began stabilizing in the second half of 2025, especially in the U.S., and expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating a rebound in growth in China following the lifting of restrictions. Investors reacted neutrally to the results: LVMH’s stock traded in a range over recent months, considering the already-accounted slowdown.
Toyota (Japan): The automaker published results for Q3 of the 2025 financial year (October–December). Toyota's revenue increased by about 7% thanks to rising global vehicle sales and a weaker yen; however, operating profit has decreased for the third consecutive quarter. Profitability came under pressure from rising costs and new import tariffs in the U.S., resulting in a reduction of operating profit by approximately 15% year-on-year. Nevertheless, the company kept its annual forecast unchanged and announced a leadership change: in April 2026, the CEO position will be handed over to Kenta Kon. The market reacted calmly to the news: Toyota's shares are trading with minor fluctuations, considering that the profit decline was expected.
Sberbank (Russia): The leading Russian bank concluded 2025 on a positive note. According to preliminary non-audited results for Q4, Sberbank demonstrated a twofold year-on-year increase in net profit, benefiting from high interest rates and increased loan margins. The loan portfolio continued to expand, especially in the corporate segment, and asset quality remains stable. Such results effectively guarantee a record annual profit for the bank and form expectations for generous dividends for 2025. Investors assess Sberbank’s prospects positively: its shares have consistently risen in recent weeks, considering the prospect of the CBR cutting rates later in 2026, which could stimulate further demand for loans.

Thus, Saturday, February 7, 2026, passes relatively calmly, but a number of events are ahead that could significantly affect sentiments in global markets. Investors should use this pause for analysis and prepare for possible volatility. Key indicators for the coming days and weeks include the following points:

Political Events in Asia: The results of early elections in Japan will be known by Sunday. The retention of a stable government or an unexpected outcome could affect the yen's exchange rate and the dynamics of the Japanese market, as well as set the tone for trading in the Asia-Pacific region at the start of the week.
Important Macroeconomic Data: In the U.S., the publication of the key labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls for January) has been postponed to February 11, which traditionally shapes expectations for Fed policy. Additionally, during the week, investors anticipate data on U.S. inflation (CPI for January) – its release may be delayed, but remains highly significant for the market. In Europe, attention will center on preliminary estimates of GDP for the UK and eurozone for Q4 2025: these figures will indicate how confidently the largest economies are overcoming current challenges.
Commodity Price Dynamics: Oil prices and other commodities remain a crucial indicator for the global market. Brent crude is holding around a comfortable $60–65 per barrel following coordinated actions by OPEC+ to regulate production. Over the weekend, investors should monitor any statements from major oil exporters – unforeseen comments or cartel decisions could lead to price fluctuations. Volatility in commodity markets will directly impact the currencies and stocks of resource-rich countries (Russian ruble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, shares of oil and gas companies, and metallurgists).
Monetary Policy and Bond Markets: Following the synchronized pause of the Fed, ECB, and BoE, investors will be looking for hints regarding future actions by regulators. Next week, the Bank of Russia is scheduled to meet (February 13) – any changes to the rate or rhetoric from one of the few central banks still maintaining a tight policy will attract the attention of global players. Furthermore, comments from representatives of the Fed, ECB, or Bank of Japan in the coming days may adjust expectations for rates in the following months. Yields on bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds, will be sensitive to these signals and set the direction for the entire capital market.
Geopolitical Risks and Unexpected News: In a relative calm of planned events, unexpected information can act as a trigger for mood changes. Negotiations on the international arena (e.g., dialogue regarding Iran's nuclear program, trade discussions between the U.S. and China, or news from the Ukrainian front) may surface over the weekend. It is essential for investors to stay vigilant regarding news feeds: any major political statements, sanctions decisions, or unforeseen events can cause short-term strong movements in specific assets and sectors.

This current lull provides an opportunity for investors to reassess their strategies and balance their portfolios ahead of upcoming events. Analyzing recent trends – from corporate financial results to signals from central banks – will facilitate informed decision-making. A busy week of events lies ahead, and attentiveness to the mentioned factors will allow for timely responses to changes in market conditions, keeping the portfolio aligned with updated realities. Global markets are at a crossroads: the outcome of elections in Japan, U.S. statistics, and new economic indicators will determine the direction of capital movement, and a prepared investor will be ready to face these challenges head-on.