November 19, 2024: Key Economic Events of the Day
Today, November 19, 2024, investors worldwide are watching a series of significant events that could impact global markets. Key topics of the day include the G20 Summit, inflation data releases, central bank announcements, and corporate earnings reports. Here’s an overview of the main events and what they might mean for the financial markets, with insights for investors in Europe and the United States.
G20 Summit (Day 2)
On the second day of the G20 Summit, foreign ministers from leading European nations (Poland, France, Germany, the UK, and Italy) are discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, its economic impacts, and the future of European foreign policy following Donald Trump's recent victory in the U.S. presidential election.
Impact on Markets:
Decisions made at the G20 Summit could shape the geopolitical environment and, consequently, European market stability. For example, any new measures addressing Ukraine may increase European financial aid commitments or influence sanctions affecting Russian exports. These decisions could lead to short-term fluctuations in European indices, especially in energy and manufacturing sectors that depend on regional stability.
Investor Recommendations:
Keep an eye on developments from the G20. Investors may need to adjust their portfolios to account for potential policy changes affecting European and global markets. Sectors sensitive to geopolitics, like energy and defense, may experience volatility, making it essential to assess risk exposure carefully.
Australian Central Bank Meeting Minutes
Today’s release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes may give investors insights into future monetary policy. Analysts will be looking for signals on potential rate hikes or holds, which could affect the Australian dollar.
Impact on Markets:
Shifts in the Australian dollar may indirectly influence commodity markets, particularly as Australia is a key global supplier. The ripple effects of Australian monetary policy could be felt in various commodity prices, including those for metals and natural resources.
Investor Recommendations:
Investors with interests in commodities should consider Australian economic indicators as part of their strategic planning. An increase in Australian interest rates could strengthen the Australian dollar and impact commodity demand, making this a factor for investors in raw materials markets.
Economic Data
- Eurozone Current Account (September) – Scheduled for release at 12:00 GMT, this data will give insight into Europe’s export-import balance and economic resilience.
- Eurozone CPI (October) – At 13:00 GMT, inflation data for the Eurozone will be released. This could impact the euro and provide signals on future European Central Bank (ECB) policy.
- U.S. Housing Starts (October) – At 16:30 GMT, the U.S. Census Bureau will release data on new construction starts, a key indicator of the real estate market’s health.
- Canadian CPI (October) – Also at 16:30 GMT, inflation data from Canada may indicate whether the Bank of Canada could adjust its interest rate policy soon.
Impact on Markets:
Currency markets could see increased volatility following the release of inflation and trade balance data from the Eurozone and Canada. These economic indicators will give investors clues about the future policy actions of the ECB and the Bank of Canada. Housing data in the U.S. will also provide valuable insights into economic activity and may influence the dollar.
Investor Recommendations:
Investors trading in the euro, Canadian dollar, or real estate-linked assets should monitor these data points closely. Strong inflation figures may lead central banks to adjust interest rates, impacting bond yields, currencies, and inflation-sensitive sectors.
Central Bank Speeches
Key central bank officials are set to speak today:
- ECB’s Frank Elderson – Expected to emphasize the importance of stability in the Eurozone and discuss inflationary pressures.
- Bank of England Governor – May comment on the British economy amidst Brexit challenges.
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s Schmid – Likely to address domestic economic outlooks and inflationary trends in the United States.
Impact on Markets:
Comments from these central bank representatives may provide hints regarding future interest rate moves and broader economic policy, potentially impacting major currencies such as the euro, the pound, and the dollar.
Investor Recommendations:
European and American investors should monitor these speeches for indications of upcoming central bank actions, especially if they hold assets in affected currencies or sectors. Statements on inflation and economic resilience will be particularly relevant for those holding European and U.S.-based securities.
U.S. API Oil Inventories
At 00:30 GMT, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release data on U.S. oil inventories. Changes in inventory levels can influence oil prices, an important factor for energy investors.
Impact on Markets:
Lower inventories may boost oil prices, benefiting energy stocks, while higher inventories could place downward pressure on prices. Given the global significance of oil, these data can also indirectly influence other energy-dependent markets.
Investor Recommendations:
Investors in the energy sector should track API data to anticipate potential price movements. In addition, those with holdings in oil-exporting economies or energy stocks should be prepared for volatility.
Key Corporate Earnings Releases
Today, several major corporations will report earnings before and after market hours:
- Before Market Open: Walmart Inc (WMT), Workhorse Group (WKHS), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Xpeng Inc ADR (XPEV), Medtronic Inc (MDT), and Vipshop Holdings Ltd ADR (VIPS).
- Russian Companies: LEAS (Europlan), MTS (MTSS), and Astra Group (ASTR) will report quarterly and nine-month results.
- After Market Close: ZTO Express Cayman Inc ADR (ZTO) and Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS).
Impact on Markets:
The earnings reports of these corporations, especially Walmart and Lowe’s, could impact retail and technology sectors in the U.S. and beyond. In particular, companies with significant revenue growth may lift sector sentiment, while companies reporting declines could drag on related stocks.
Investor Recommendations:
Earnings data from these companies will be crucial for sector-based investment strategies. Investors should analyze reports closely, as results from the consumer, technology, and energy sectors may offer a snapshot of broader economic trends.
Today’s economic events provide valuable insights into global market trends and macroeconomic conditions. Investors should pay close attention to geopolitical discussions, inflation data, central bank comments, and corporate earnings for a comprehensive market view.
Commentary by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market:
Global and regional economic events today serve as a reminder of the importance of monitoring geopolitical and economic changes to make informed investment decisions. While European inflation data and central bank comments will provide direction for the euro, developments from the G20 Summit are particularly important for global markets. Investors should carefully consider their exposure to sensitive sectors and remain vigilant in assessing risks and opportunities in today’s volatile environment.
🌎 G20 Summit — Day 2
🇺🇦 Foreign Ministers of Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Ukraine will discuss the Ukraine conflict, Trump’s U.S. election win, and Europe’s political future.
🇦🇺 Australia- Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting.
🇪🇺 European Union- Current Account (September) — 09:00 GMT
- CPI (October) — 10:00 GMT
🇺🇸 United States- Housing Starts (October) — 13:30 GMT
🇨🇦 Canada- CPI (October) — 13:30 GMT
Central Bank Speakers- 🇪🇺 Elderson (ECB)
- 🇬🇧 Bank of England Governor
- 🇺🇸 Schmid (Federal Reserve)
🛢 Oil- API Crude Oil Stock — 21:30 GMT
🇷🇺 Russia
Popular Earnings ReleasesThe State Duma will discuss the main directions of unified monetary policy for 2025-2027 (live broadcast).
🇷🇺 #LEAS — Europlan — Investor Day
🇷🇺 #MBNK — MTS Bank — Investor Day
US Dollar Index: 106.16 (-0.11, -0.11%)
Shanghai Composite: 3,311.01 (-12.84, -0.39%)
Hang Seng Futures: 19,661.0 (-103.5, -0.52%)
Nikkei 225 Futures: 38,490.0 (+107.5, +0.28%)
Euro Stoxx 50 Futures: 4,818 (+29, +0.61%)
S&P 500 Futures: 5,929.75 (+9.75, +0.16%)
Commodities:
🇷🇺🇨🇳#Geopolitics #Russia #China
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that strategic relations between Russia and China are now at an unprecedented level. This announcement came during his meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 Summit.
During the meeting, the ministers discussed key issues of bilateral cooperation, including economic collaboration and international coordination. Both sides emphasized the importance of strengthening their partnership amid the current geopolitical environment.
Lavrov highlighted that Russia and China continue close cooperation across various sectors, contributing to regional stability and development. Wang Yi, in turn, expressed China’s readiness to further deepen its strategic partnership with Russia.
This meeting underscores both countries’ commitment to reinforcing ties and jointly addressing global challenges.
📌 U.S. Defense Department on North Korean Troops in Ukraine:
The Pentagon cannot confirm reports of North Korean military involvement in Ukraine or presence in Russia’s Kursk region. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh mentioned there are "grounds to expect" such involvement, but no confirmation from independent sources. The Pentagon also declined to disclose the number of ATACMS missiles sent to Kyiv, acknowledging that U.S. stocks are limited.
📌 Political Instability in Abkhazia:
Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania and Prime Minister Alexander Ankvab announced their resignation, fulfilling an agreement with the opposition. Protesters are expected to vacate the government building complex, or Bzhania may withdraw his resignation. Acting Prime Minister will be Valery Bganba, while acting head of state will be Vice President Badr Gunba.
📌 Protests in Tbilisi, Georgia:
In Tbilisi, special forces dispersed a tent camp of protesters who had blocked traffic to contest the election win of the ruling party, "Georgian Dream." Tear gas was used to clear the area, and demonstrators clashed with security forces, with stones thrown and several people detained.
📌 Hospitalization of Paraguay's President:
Paraguayan President Santiago Peña was hospitalized from the G20 Summit in Brazil due to chest pains. Medical tests revealed a condition requiring further observation. The G20 Summit concluded with a joint declaration, where leaders expressed support for a world free of nuclear weapons, a commitment to reform the global financial system, and backing for peace initiatives regarding Ukraine.
Apple has offered Indonesia a $100 million investment to lift the ban on iPhone 16 sales.
Rising logistics costs may drive up the price of Russian thermal coal, potentially shifting the export structure. S&P Global forecasts a decrease in price-sensitive buyers, like India and China, with an increase in premium markets, including South Korea and Japan.
The European Union purchased Russian gas at a record high of €840 million, the highest level in 18 months. Additionally, the EU imported Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth €547.8 million in September, marking the highest level since April 2024, according to Eurostat and TASS.
The European Union intends to require Chinese companies to localize production in Europe and share intellectual property as conditions for market access.
Following a period of record inflows, Chinese equity ETFs have experienced substantial outflows.
Goldman Sachs has revised its 12-month target for the FTSE 100 index, lowering it from 8,800 to 8,500 points. This adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook on the UK stock market's performance over the coming year.
In September 2024, Goldman Sachs analysts had projected the FTSE 100 to reach 8,800 points within 12 months, citing attractive valuations and strong dividend yields of UK equities.
The current downward revision may be attributed to evolving macroeconomic conditions, including a slowdown in global economic growth and potential risks to corporate earnings.
Investors are advised to consider these updated forecasts when developing their investment strategies, particularly in light of potential market volatility.
ИсточникиGoldman Sachs has revised its 12-month target for the STOXX 600 index, lowering it from 540 to 530 points. This adjustment reflects the bank's cautious outlook on the European stock market, citing continued weak economic performance and modest earnings per share growth as key reasons.
In March 2024, Goldman Sachs had raised its target for the STOXX 600 to 540 points, anticipating potential improvement in economic growth and monetary policy easing across central banks.
The current downward revision may be attributed to evolving macroeconomic conditions, including a slowdown in global economic growth and potential risks to corporate earnings.
Investors are advised to consider these updated forecasts when developing their investment strategies, particularly in light of potential market volatility.
ИсточникиChinese electric vehicle manufacturer XPeng has released its financial results for the third quarter of 2024. The company delivered 46,533 vehicles, marking a 16.3% year-over-year increase. Revenue rose by 25% to 10.10 billion yuan, slightly surpassing analysts' expectations.
Despite the revenue growth, XPeng reported a loss of 1.90 yuan per American Depositary Share (ADR), exceeding the anticipated loss of 1.71 yuan per ADR. The company attributes the improved performance to a refreshed product lineup and strong domestic market demand.
In October 2024, XPeng delivered over 10,000 units of the MONA M03 model, which competes with Tesla's Model 3 and BYD's offerings. The company forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between 15.3 billion and 16.2 billion yuan, exceeding analysts' estimates. Expected deliveries for the fourth quarter range from 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles, significantly higher than the previous year's figures.
XPeng also announced the launch of the P7+ model, featuring advanced artificial intelligence capabilities. The vehicle received over 31,000 non-refundable orders within three hours of its unveiling, indicating strong market interest.
Investors should consider these developments when assessing XPeng's prospects in the electric vehicle market.
ИсточникиAccording to a Reuters poll conducted among 68 economists, the Bank of England is expected to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25% during its meeting on December 14, 2024. The majority of respondents anticipate that the rate will remain unchanged until the third quarter of 2025, after which gradual reductions may occur.
Economists note that despite a decline in UK inflation, the Bank of England prefers to exercise caution in its monetary policy to ensure the sustainable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Markets also expect the regulator to adhere to the current rate in the coming months.
Overall, analysts believe that the Bank of England will closely monitor economic indicators and inflationary risks before deciding on any potential changes to the interest rate in the future.
ИсточникиToday, November 19, 2024, Nasdaq is initiating trading of options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest Bitcoin ETF with assets totaling $42 billion. This development introduces new avenues for traders and investors in the cryptocurrency derivatives market.
Key Highlights:
Commencement of Trading: Options on IBIT are now available on Nasdaq, offering novel instruments for hedging and speculation in the Bitcoin market.
Regulatory Approval: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously approved the listing and trading of options on IBIT, marking a significant step in integrating cryptocurrencies into traditional financial markets.
Market Expectations: Analysts, including QCP Capital, note that derivative markets often exceed the size of the underlying asset by 10 to 20 times, potentially leading to substantial growth in liquidity and trading volumes in the Bitcoin options market.
Market Impact:
Increased Liquidity: The introduction of options on a Bitcoin ETF is likely to attract more institutional investors, enhancing liquidity and stability in the market.
Expanded Instruments: Investors now have additional tools for risk hedging and strategy implementation, fostering the development of the cryptocurrency derivatives market.
Regulatory Endorsement: The SEC's approval underscores the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency instruments within the traditional financial system, potentially boosting investor confidence.
The launch of options on IBIT represents a significant milestone in the evolution of cryptocurrency markets, opening new opportunities for participants and facilitating the integration of digital assets into conventional financial structures.
ИсточникиRecent filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicate a significant increase in institutional ownership of MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock. The number of institutional holders has risen from 667 to 738. Notably, Vanguard Group Inc. has substantially expanded its position, adding nearly 16 million shares, marking a 1000% increase.
Key Points:
Institutional Interest: The rise in institutional holders reflects growing confidence in MicroStrategy's strategic direction and financial prospects.
Vanguard's Expansion: Vanguard's significant increase in holdings suggests a strong belief in the company's long-term strategy, particularly its substantial investments in Bitcoin.
Context:
MicroStrategy has been notable for its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy initiated in 2020. The company has consistently increased its cryptocurrency holdings, attracting both support and criticism. The recent surge in institutional investment may indicate broader endorsement of this approach among major financial entities.
Investors should continue to monitor MicroStrategy's activities and assess the associated risks of its investment policies
In the 2023/2024 coffee season (October–September), global coffee exports increased by 11.7%, reaching 137.27 million bags (each weighing 60 kg). This surge coincides with historically high coffee prices, driven by adverse weather conditions in key producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam.
Key Factors Contributing to Export Growth:
Increase in Unroasted Coffee Shipments: Exports of unroasted coffee rose by 11.8%, totaling 123.75 million bags.
Rise in Soluble Coffee Exports: Soluble coffee exports grew by 11.6%, reaching 12.82 million bags.
Impact on Prices:
Adverse weather events, including droughts and frosts, have reduced yields in major producing countries, leading to a supply shortage in the market. Consequently, coffee prices have reached a 47-year high.
Outlook:
Experts anticipate that coffee prices will remain elevated in the coming months due to ongoing climate challenges and constrained supply. Consumers should be prepared for potential increases in coffee product prices.
Hedera's native cryptocurrency, HBAR, has recently experienced a significant surge, increasing by over 30% to reach approximately $0.073. This rise is largely attributed to Canary Capital's filing for a spot HBAR Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Key Developments:
ETF Filing: Canary Capital has submitted an application to the SEC to launch a spot ETF focused on HBAR. If approved, this ETF would provide investors with direct exposure to HBAR, potentially enhancing its accessibility and liquidity in the market.
Market Reaction: The announcement of the ETF filing has generated increased interest in HBAR, contributing to its recent price appreciation.
Current Metrics:
Price: As of November 19, 2024, HBAR is trading at $0.1382, reflecting a 19.24% increase over the past 24 hours.
Market Capitalization: HBAR's market capitalization stands at $5.2 billion, underscoring its prominence in the cryptocurrency market.
Outlook:
The potential approval of the HBAR ETF could attract institutional investors and further bolster HBAR's market position. However, investors should remain cognizant of inherent risks and monitor ongoing developments closely.
ИсточникиWalmart Inc. (ticker: WMT) has released its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, surpassing analysts' expectations.
Key Metrics:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.58, exceeding the projected $0.53.
Revenue: $169.59 billion, surpassing the anticipated $166.62 billion.
Market Reaction:
Following the earnings report, Walmart's stock rose by 4%, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strong financial performance.
Additional Highlights:
Sales Growth: Comparable sales in the U.S. increased by 5.3%, indicating robust consumer demand.
E-commerce Expansion: Online sales in the U.S. grew by 27%, underscoring the successful development of Walmart's digital sales channels.
These results demonstrate Walmart's resilience and adaptability in the current economic climate, as well as the effectiveness of its strategies to attract customers and boost sales.
ИсточникиAccording to a Nasdaq representative, options trading for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (ticker: IBIT) is set to commence today.
This development offers investors new avenues for trading, hedging, and speculating in the cryptocurrency market.
Key Points:
Expansion of Financial Instruments: The introduction of options on IBIT enables market participants to employ a broader range of strategies for managing risks and capitalizing on Bitcoin's volatility.
Regulatory Approval: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously approved options trading for IBIT, marking a significant step in integrating cryptocurrency products into traditional financial markets.
Context:
Managed by BlackRock, the iShares Bitcoin Trust is the largest Bitcoin ETF, with assets under management of approximately $42 billion. Its launch in January 2024 provided investors with a convenient means to access Bitcoin through an exchange-traded fund.
The addition of options on IBIT is expected to enhance liquidity and attract more institutional investors to the cryptocurrency market, contributing to its further development and maturation.
SourcesAccording to Bloomberg, options for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (ticker: IBIT) have become available on select trading platforms and are set to commence trading at the start of the U.S. session.
Key Points:
Availability: IBIT options are now accessible on various trading terminals, allowing investors to prepare for their utilization.
Commencement of Trading: Trading of these options is expected to begin with the opening of the U.S. trading session, offering new avenues for hedging and speculation in the cryptocurrency market.
Context:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously approved the listing of options on IBIT, marking a significant step in integrating cryptocurrency products into traditional financial markets.
Managed by BlackRock, the iShares Bitcoin Trust is the largest Bitcoin ETF, with assets under management of approximately $42 billion. Its launch in January 2024 provided investors with a convenient means to access Bitcoin through an exchange-traded fund.
The addition of options on IBIT is anticipated to enhance liquidity and attract more institutional investors to the cryptocurrency market, contributing to its further development and maturation.
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