Monday, November 18, 2024: Key Economic Events of the Day

A detailed overview of key economic events for Monday, November 18, 2024.

Monday brings a series of significant events likely to set the tone for the global economy and stock markets throughout the week. The primary event will be the G20 Summit, along with key speeches from central bank leaders. These developments could introduce notable volatility in global markets, affect currency rates, and influence investment flows.

Global Key Events

• G20 Summit - Day 1
  Event Description: The G20 Summit gathers leaders of the world’s largest economies to discuss global economic issues, climate policies, and international security. This year’s summit will focus on the impact of current crises, such as geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, on the global economy. Leaders may address the stability of energy markets, trade barriers, and prospects for international cooperation.
  Market Impact: Positive actions toward stabilizing trade or removing barriers could boost market sentiment. In contrast, hardline comments may prompt sell-offs in emerging markets, including Russia.
  Recommendations: Investors should watch for any decisions on energy as they may impact Russia’s oil and gas exports. Positive comments on global stability could strengthen emerging-market currencies and support export-oriented stocks.

• Central Bank Speeches
  Key figures from global central banks are scheduled to speak, including the Bank of Japan Governor, Kent from the Reserve Bank of Australia, as well as ECB President Lagarde and other ECB representatives (Nagel, De Guindos, Lane), and U.S. Federal Reserve member Goolsbee. Their speeches may offer clues about future monetary policy steps amidst global economic uncertainty.

  • Bank of Japan Governor: May outline economic stimulus plans for Japan amid yen weakness.
  • Kent (Australia): Comments on inflation and economic resilience in Australia could influence the Australian dollar.
  • Christine Lagarde (ECB) and ECB Representatives: The ECB President is expected to address the potential for further rate hikes to control inflation.
  • Goolsbee (U.S. Fed): Insights on Fed policy and the economic outlook may impact the dollar.

  Market Impact: ECB and Fed comments are particularly influential. Tighter monetary policy in the U.S. or EU could strengthen the dollar and euro, pressuring the ruble and Russian markets. Conversely, signs of easing policy may drive demand for risk assets, including Russian stocks.
  Recommendations: Traders should monitor comments from Lagarde and the Fed, as they could set the tone for currency markets. Expectations for rate hikes in the EU or U.S. would likely boost the dollar and euro, impacting ruble-based currency pairs.

Stock Market Events

• Earnings Season: Monday sees continued earnings reports from major corporations, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. Investors will closely watch technology and consumer sector reports, which could influence the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and other major indices.
  Impact on Russia: Strong results from technology and consumer companies may bolster global indices, positively impacting the Russian stock market and interest in Russian equities.

• Oil Prices: Oil markets will be in focus as G20 leaders meet. Any signals regarding global oil demand could affect prices, crucial for Russian exporters.
  Recommendations: Russian investors trading in oil should prepare for price swings based on news about global demand and supply. Positive signals for demand could support the ruble and shares in Russian energy companies.

Impact on Russia

• G20 Summit: Discussions on energy security could directly impact Russia’s interests as a major oil and gas exporter. Positive outcomes from the G20 for global trade may strengthen the ruble and improve demand for Russian stocks. However, negative developments could lead to volatility in the ruble and Russian equities.
• ECB and Fed Speeches: Potential rate hikes in the EU and U.S. may strengthen the dollar and euro, weakening the ruble and possibly dampening demand for Russian assets. Alternatively, if easing policies are mentioned, this may support the ruble and increase investor interest in Russian assets.
• Stock Market: Russian traders may see Western earnings reports influence Russian indices, especially in the technology sector. Positive reports could support Russian tech stocks and market sentiment.

Recommendations for Russian Traders

• Track G20 News: Comments on sanctions, global markets, and energy policy may immediately impact the ruble and Russian stocks, especially in the energy sector.
• Follow Central Bank Speeches: Pay attention to statements from Fed and ECB representatives. Key signals about monetary tightening could boost the dollar and euro, affecting the ruble.
• React to Western Company Reports: Strong earnings could benefit global markets, providing a favorable backdrop for Russian stocks.
• Monitor Oil Prices: Statements affecting global oil demand could impact the ruble and shares in Russian energy companies.

Bezos’ Amazon Stock Sales Update

Last week, Jeff Bezos sold Amazon shares worth $1.3 billion, completing his plan to sell 25 million shares, originally scheduled until the end of 2025. Since early November, he has sold a total of $2.7 billion in Amazon stock. These sales were part of a pre-announced plan allowing Bezos to divest 25 million shares by the end of 2025, with approximately 22 million shares already sold. Investors may anticipate a new sales plan being announced, potentially in Amazon’s next quarterly report.

Major Earnings Reports This Week: U.S. and Russia

Monday, November 18

• Pre-Market:

  • MDMG (Mother and Child): Board of Directors to discuss interim dividends.

• After Market Close:

Financial Overview for Monday, November 18, 2024

Currencies and Indices:

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 106.73 (+0.04, +0.04%)
• Shanghai Composite Index: 3,372.18 (+41.45, +1.24%)
• Hang Seng Futures: 19,676.0 (+228.0, +1.17%)
• Nikkei 225 Futures: 38,265.0 (+205.0, +0.54%)
• Euro Stoxx 50 Futures: 4,810 (+5, +0.10%)
• S&P 500 Futures: 5,911.75 (+15.25, +0.26%)

Commodities:

• Brent Oil: $71.39 per barrel (+$0.35, +0.49%)
• Natural Gas: $2.929 per MMBtu (+$0.106, +3.75%)
• Gold: $2,596.00 per ounce (+$25.90, +1.01%)
• Silver: $30.745 per ounce (+$0.313, +1.03%)
• Copper: $4.0865 per pound (+$0.0183, +0.45%)
• Iron Ore 62% Fe: $101.63 per ton (-$0.59, -0.58%)
• Nickel: $1,340.8 per ton (unchanged)
• Aluminum: $2,686.00 per ton (+$29.00, +1.09%)

Cryptocurrency:

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD): $90,643.0 (+$401.0, +0.44%)

Market Highlights:

• U.S. Dollar Strength: The U.S. Dollar Index remains high, indicating strong investor confidence in the U.S. economy.
• Asian Markets: Positive trends in Asian markets, including the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices, suggest optimism in the region.
• Commodities: Rising gold and silver prices signal increased demand for safe-haven assets. Brent oil also shows an upward trend, likely driven by global supply concerns.
• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin remains strong, holding above the $90,000 level.

Impact on Russian Investors:

• Currency Rates: A strong dollar may exert pressure on the ruble, impacting import costs and inflation levels.
• Commodity Prices: Rising prices for oil and metals benefit Russian exporters, which positively impacts the economy and stock market.
• Global Sentiment: Positive momentum in Asian markets could boost interest in emerging markets, including Russia.

Recommendations:

• Monitor Currency Movements: Tracking the ruble-to-dollar rate is essential for assessing potential investment impacts.
• Watch Commodity Trends: Developments in oil and metals markets have a significant impact on the Russian economy.
• Consider Global Market Indicators: Incorporate international trends into investment decisions, as global sentiment often influences local markets.

Staying updated on these indicators will help investors make more informed decisions in the current financial landscape.