Key Economic Events for Thursday, November 21, 2024
Central Bank Decisions
Central Bank of Turkey (2:00 PM MSK):
The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation. This decision could strengthen the Turkish lira and impact trade relations with the European Union, particularly in the energy and agriculture sectors.
Central Bank of South Africa (4:00 PM MSK):
The rate decision may significantly affect the South African rand and emerging markets. This is crucial for European and U.S. investors with interests in Africa or in commodities tied to South African markets.
Economic Data
Jobless Claims (U.S., 4:30 PM MSK):
This metric reflects the state of the U.S. labor market. A decline in claims could strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially affecting export competitiveness and commodity prices in Europe.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November, U.S., 4:30 PM MSK):
This index indicates activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A rise could signal economic recovery, which may boost demand for European exports such as industrial machinery and raw materials.
Existing Home Sales (U.S., October, 6:00 PM MSK):
A key indicator of the housing market's health in the U.S. A strong housing market could further strengthen the dollar, influencing global investment flows.
Consumer Confidence Index (EU, November, 6:00 PM MSK):
This index highlights consumer sentiment and confidence in the EU economy. A decline could lower demand for U.S. and global exports, particularly in consumer goods.
Natural Gas Inventories (U.S., 6:30 PM MSK):
Changes in U.S. gas inventories could influence global energy markets. Significant shifts might affect European gas prices, especially during the winter season.
Corporate Reports
Baidu Inc (BIDU):
Expected revenue decline of 0.7%. This may influence investor sentiment in the tech sector, impacting global tech market trends.
PDD Holdings Inc (PDD):
Projected revenue growth of 53.4% reflects the strong performance of Chinese technology companies, drawing investor attention globally.
Deere & Company (DE):
An anticipated 39.4% drop in revenue could indicate challenges in the global agricultural sector, with potential downstream effects on U.S. and European machinery exports.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ):
Forecasted 6.5% revenue growth highlights stability in the U.S. retail sector, which is important for consumer confidence and spending trends in Europe.
VK:
VK’s Q3 2024 financial results will provide insights into the IT sector’s performance in emerging markets, indirectly influencing global tech investment strategies.
Russian Aquaculture (AQUA):
An extraordinary general meeting will address a Q3 dividend payout of 20 RUB/share. While specific to Russian markets, trends in dividend payments can signal broader investment attitudes in the global aquaculture sector.
Ross Stores Inc (ROST):
An expected 4.6% revenue increase signals stability in the U.S. retail industry, which could impact European retailers through competition or market trends.
Gap Inc (GAP):
A modest revenue growth of 1.1% suggests steady recovery in the U.S. apparel retail sector, with implications for global fashion markets.
Intuit Inc (INTU):
Projected 5.4% revenue growth highlights stable demand for financial management software, which could drive tech sector optimism in both Europe and the U.S.
Impact on Europe and the U.S.
- Turkey and South Africa: Central bank decisions in these countries could shift demand for European and U.S. exports, particularly in energy and industrial goods.
- U.S. Economic Data: A stronger dollar resulting from robust job and housing market indicators could reduce the competitiveness of European exports.
- EU Consumer Confidence: Weak sentiment in Europe might dampen demand for U.S. exports and influence trade balances.
- Energy Markets: U.S. natural gas inventory changes could affect European energy prices and security.
Investor Recommendations
Commodities:
- Oil and Gas: Monitor central bank decisions in Turkey and South Africa, as these could impact emerging market currencies and, subsequently, global commodity prices.
Currency Markets:
- U.S. Dollar: Economic data, such as jobless claims and manufacturing indices, could strengthen the dollar, influencing currency pairs involving the euro and emerging market currencies.
Tech Sector:
- Baidu Inc (BIDU): Watch for potential declines in investor confidence tied to weak earnings.
- PDD Holdings Inc (PDD): Positive growth may boost global tech market sentiment.
Agriculture:
- Deere & Company (DE): Anticipated revenue declines signal potential weakness in the agricultural machinery sector, with implications for related industries.
Retail Sector:
- BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ): Positive retail trends in the U.S. could signal recovery momentum beneficial for European exporters.
Technology Solutions:
- Intuit Inc (INTU): Continued demand for financial management software highlights the resilience of this segment in developed markets.
November 21, 2024, is packed with significant economic and corporate events that could influence global markets. Investors in Europe and the U.S. are advised to closely monitor central bank decisions, economic data, and corporate earnings to make informed decisions in an evolving market landscape.
NVIDIA has released its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, surpassing analysts' expectations. Earnings per share reached $0.81, exceeding the anticipated $0.75. Revenue totaled $35.1 billion, outpacing the forecasted $33.14 billion.
However, the outlook for the fourth quarter is less optimistic. The company projects revenue of $37.5 billion, with a possible variance of 2%, slightly above the expected $37.1 billion. The adjusted gross margin stood at 75%, aligning with expectations.
Revenue from data center operations reached $30.8 billion, surpassing the projected $29.14 billion. The gaming segment also showed growth, with revenue of $3.3 billion compared to the anticipated $3.06 billion.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated, "The era of artificial intelligence is gaining momentum, driving a global transition to NVIDIA computing."
These results underscore NVIDIA's leading role in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.
According to a Reuters poll, analysts anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce the key interest rate by 0.25% in December 2024, aiming for a range of 3.5%–3.75% by the end of 2025. However, there is an increased risk of inflation resurgence in 2025.
These projections reflect the Fed's efforts to balance economic growth with inflation control. While rate cuts can stimulate economic activity, they may also lead to future inflationary pressures.
Investors are advised to monitor the Fed's decisions and economic indicators closely to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
Ford to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe
Automaker Ford has announced plans to reduce its European workforce by 4,000 employees by the end of 2027. The majority of these cuts will affect Germany and the UK, accounting for approximately 14% of the company's European staff. This decision is attributed to declining demand for electric vehicles and increased market competition.
Passenger traffic of Russian airlines increased by 6.5% in October
According to Rosaviatsia, in October 2024, Russian airlines transported 9.5 million passengers, marking a 6.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Growth in passenger traffic is observed in both domestic and international routes. Specifically, international flights saw a 27.4% rise, reaching 1.2 million passengers, while domestic flights increased by 10.3%, totaling 3.6 million passengers.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase by 0.545 Million Barrels
According to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial crude oil inventories rose by 0.545 million barrels for the week ending November 15, 2024, reaching a total of 430.292 million barrels. This increase surpassed the anticipated rise of 0.4 million barrels but was lower than the previous week's build of 2.089 million barrels.
The growth in crude oil inventories may indicate a decrease in demand or an increase in supply within the market. Investors and analysts are advised to monitor upcoming EIA reports and other economic indicators to assess potential impacts on oil prices and related markets.
ИсточникиUnusual Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Volume
On November 20, 2024, at 16:16:35 Moscow time, an unusually high Bitcoin trading volume of $21,005,000 was recorded. The transaction structure was as follows: 73% — purchases, 27% — sales. As a result, the BTC price reached $94,171.14, reflecting a 0.08% increase on this volume and a 2.02% rise for the day.
Such significant trading volumes may indicate increased investor interest in Bitcoin and potentially affect its volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics and consider potential risks when making investment decisions
Bitcoin Surpasses $95,000 for the First Time
On November 21, 2024, Bitcoin's price reached a historic high, surpassing $95,000. On the Binance exchange, the cryptocurrency's value rose to $93,699.26, while CoinMarketCap reported an average price of $93,739.45 across more than 20 exchanges, marking a 2.84% increase from the previous day.
Analysts attribute this surge to reports that Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, owned by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, is in talks to acquire the cryptocurrency platform Bakkt. Previously, financier Dmitry Golubovsky suggested that Bitcoin's price could reach $100,000.
Stay tuned to PRIME for the latest updates in the world of cryptocurrencies and finance.
SourcesRussia Reclaims Position as EU's Leading Gas Supplier
In September 2024, Russia regained its status as the primary gas supplier to the European Union, capturing a 23.7% market share. This marks the first time since spring 2022 that Russia has held this position, according to calculations by RIA Novosti based on Eurostat data.
This resurgence is attributed to increased deliveries of Russian pipeline gas, enabling Russia to surpass Norway and the United States in gas exports to the EU. Despite ongoing sanctions and political tensions, European countries continue to import Russian gas, highlighting the challenges of fully replacing this energy source.
Stay tuned to PRIME for the latest updates in the energy and economic sectors.
SourcesToday's Calendar — November 21, 2024
Economic Events:
Central Bank Speakers:
Corporate Events:
Please monitor these events, as they may significantly impact financial markets.
As of November 21, 2024, here are the latest market updates:
Currencies:
Asian Markets:
European Markets:
US Markets:
Commodities:
Cryptocurrency:
These figures reflect the latest available data and are subject to change as markets continue to fluctuate.
Austrian real estate developer Warimpex has completed the sale of its final asset in Russia—the "Airport City" complex in St. Petersburg. The new owner is "Sovinkom Invest," owned by Dmitry Pavlov. While the transaction details remain undisclosed, the market value of the project is estimated between 12 and 15 billion rubles.
Warimpex, specializing in the development and management of commercial properties, operates projects in Austria, Poland, and Germany. The company has been active in the Russian market since the 1990s, gradually divesting its assets there. The sale of "Airport City" is expected to negatively impact the group's 2024 financial results by approximately €76 million.
The "Airport City" complex, located on Startovaya Street in St. Petersburg, comprises office buildings and a hotel. Previously, Warimpex increased its stake in the project to 90% by acquiring an additional 35% from CA Immo in 2019.
This sale marks Warimpex's exit from the Russian real estate market, allowing the company to focus on its projects in Central and Eastern Europe.
ИсточникиBitcoin Nears $97,000
Polymarket Odds Give an 81% Chance That Bitcoin ($BTC) Will Hit $100,000 in November
Bitcoin is now less than 3% away from the $100,000 milestone. (source)
Adani Group, a prominent Indian conglomerate, is currently facing significant legal challenges and financial repercussions. On November 21, 2024, U.S. prosecutors indicted Chairman Gautam Adani and seven others on charges of bribery and fraud. The indictment alleges that between 2020 and 2024, Adani and his associates paid approximately $265 million in bribes to Indian officials to secure solar power contracts expected to yield over $2 billion in profits. These allegations have led to a substantial decline in the market value of Adani Group companies, with shares plummeting by up to 20% across various subsidiaries.
In addition to the U.S. charges, Hindenburg Research, a U.S.-based short-selling firm, has reported that Swiss prosecutors are investigating Adani Group for potential money laundering activities. This development has further intensified scrutiny on the conglomerate's operations and financial practices.
These legal issues have significantly impacted investor confidence, leading to a sharp decline in the stock prices of Adani Group companies. The ongoing investigations and legal proceedings are expected to have profound implications for the group's financial stability and market standing.
SourcesBaidu has released its latest financial results, showing a mixed performance:
The increase in revenue indicates robust business growth, even though EPS did not meet projections. This suggests that Baidu is effectively navigating current economic challenges
Oil prices have risen due to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Market participants are concerned about potential disruptions in Russian oil supplies, which is putting upward pressure on prices. On November 20, oil prices remained stable; however, fears of intensified military actions could lead to supply interruptions from Russia
.
Earlier, on November 18, oil prices edged up after intensified fighting between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend, though concerns about fuel demand in China weighed on the market
.
Thus, geopolitical tensions in the region continue to significantly impact the oil market, causing price fluctuations and increased volatility.
ИсточникиOn October 17, 2024, the Central Bank of Turkey maintained its key interest rate at 50%, aligning with market expectations and previous decisions.
Key Points:
Rate Maintenance: This marks the seventh consecutive decision to keep the rate at 50%, the highest level in over two decades.
Inflation Risks: The central bank noted a slight increase in core inflation in September, while domestic demand continues to slow, approaching disinflationary levels.
Future Measures: The regulator emphasized its vigilance regarding inflation risks and readiness to employ monetary policy tools if a sustained deterioration in inflation is observed.
Experts suggest that, although Turkey's inflation level necessitates maintaining rates at 50% for the remainder of the year, monetary policy easing may occur before the end of 2024 due to "covert political pressure."
In summary, the Central Bank of Turkey continues its tight monetary policy to combat inflation, closely monitoring economic indicators for potential future adjustments.
Источники