Global Coffee Exports: Trends and Price Impact in the 2023/24 Season

In the 2023/24 season, global coffee exports grew by 11.7%, reaching 137.3 million bags, alongside a historic rise in coffee prices. This significant growth in exports and prices affects everyone involved in the market, from producers to end consumers. This article examines the drivers behind the export growth, the factors fueling the price increase, and the outlook for the global coffee market.

Growth in Global Exports: Key Drivers and Regions

Global demand for coffee continues to rise, and top coffee-producing countries have worked hard to meet these needs. The primary factors driving export growth are:

Colombian Arabica:
- Exports from Colombia increased by 17.7%, reaching 1.05 million bags. Improved weather conditions supported increased coffee volumes, making Colombian arabica one of the most sought-after varieties globally.
Brazilian Natural Arabica:
- Exports of natural coffee from Brazil rose by 18.0%. While earlier logistics issues disrupted shipments, the situation has stabilized in Brazil and Ethiopia, supporting exports and strengthening these countries’ positions in the coffee market.
Robusta:
- Robusta exports rose by 3.3%, largely due to increased shipments from Uganda and Brazil. These rises helped offset lower exports from Vietnam, attributed to changing market dynamics.

Sharp Rise in Coffee Prices: Causes and Effects

In addition to higher export volumes, the 2023/24 season has seen a substantial increase in coffee prices. The ICO (International Coffee Organization) Composite Price Index reached 237.05 US cents per pound in July 2024—48.9% higher than the previous year. Key factors driving this price growth include:

Climate Changes:
- Droughts and extreme weather in countries like Brazil and Vietnam have reduced yields and increased production costs, driving up prices.
Logistics and Rising Costs:
- Transportation costs and logistical disruptions have remained major issues impacting coffee prices. Increased container and fuel costs have added to the overall price.
Speculative Interest in Coffee Futures:
- Coffee has gained popularity as a commodity investment on global markets, stimulating price increases due to interest from investors and large funds in coffee futures.

Impact on Consumers and the Market

For consumers, rising coffee prices have meant a higher cost for the final product. International brands like Lavazza and Starbucks have announced price increases, which have a direct effect on prices in retail and cafes worldwide. The rising costs may ultimately affect demand, as consumers could face higher coffee costs in stores and restaurants.

Market Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities

Experts predict that coffee prices will remain high in the coming years due to climate impacts and logistical challenges, which will require adaptation across the industry.

Sustainable Farming Practices:
- Producers are investing in sustainable farming techniques to minimize the impact of climate changes on yield. This could involve using technology to monitor and protect coffee plantations.
Supply Chain Optimization:
- Companies are focused on improving logistics and supply chains to reduce transportation costs. Local production and new logistics partnerships may help stabilize supply and control costs.
New Product Development:
- Producers are exploring alternative coffee blends to lower costs and offer affordable options to consumers.

Key Considerations for Investors

Investors should keep in mind that while coffee exports and prices are rising, the market remains volatile due to climate shifts, cost increases, and speculative interest. On one hand, higher prices support profitability for producers; on the other, these factors may introduce income instability. Investors are advised to monitor companies' strategies for managing climate-related risks and their moves toward sustainable farming, as these could contribute to stable, long-term growth.