Global Lithium Prices Rise Amid Increased Demand for Batteries. Russia Prepares to Launch Its Own Lithium Production by 2026, Targeting 28,000 Tons Per Year by 2030. An Analytical Overview for Investors.
Global lithium prices are demonstrating a new wave of growth amid expectations of a rapid increase in demand. In early December, lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou exchange surged to $13,300 per ton — a peak not seen in the last one and a half years. On the London Metal Exchange, contracts for lithium hydroxide exceeded $10,000 per ton, gaining around 6% in just one month. Experts attribute this uptick to the anticipated explosive growth of the battery and electric vehicle markets in the coming years.
According to analysts' forecasts, global lithium demand could reach 700,000 to 900,000 tons (in terms of pure metal) by 2026 — several times higher than the levels of the mid-2020s. For comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated global lithium consumption at around 220,000 tons in 2024. While the range of forecasts is broad, all agree that consumption of "white gold" will grow at an accelerated pace. By 2030, annual demand is expected to exceed 1 to 2 million tons, reflecting the boom in electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Batteries and Electric Vehicles — The Main Demand Driver
The rapid increase in lithium usage is primarily driven by advancements in battery technologies. Approximately 80% of all lithium produced today goes towards lithium-ion batteries, mainly for electric vehicles. As the global automotive industry transitions to electric power, the demand for batteries is expected to grow exponentially. Experts predict that in just the next 3 to 4 years, the market for "green" batteries will increase by hundreds of percent. By 2028-2030, the annual production of electric vehicles worldwide could reach 20-25 million units, and with it, lithium consumption will reach unprecedented levels. The majority of consumption is concentrated in Asia, where around 90% of lithium raw materials are processed into batteries in China, South Korea, and Japan. These regions, along with North America, are leading in the expansion of electric transportation and energy storage capacity.
Who Produces Lithium: Global Leaders
The global lithium extraction market is currently dominated by several countries. The largest producer is Australia, accounting for up to 40% of the world’s primary lithium. Chile and China round out the top three. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its presence in the sector: the country is investing in new deposits both domestically and abroad and controls about 60% of lithium raw material processing capacity. By the first half of 2025, China's share in global lithium production reached 28%, and analysts estimate that by 2026, China could surpass Australia to become the world's largest lithium supplier, maintaining this position at least until the mid-2030s. Other players, such as Zimbabwe and Argentina, are also expanding production with new projects. In this race for "white gold," Russia's role remains minimal so far; however, its own extraction capabilities could eventually elevate the country into the club of key lithium producers.
Russia: Dependence on Lithium Imports
Despite the global excitement surrounding lithium, actual production within Russia is virtually non-existent. Small volumes (around several dozen tons per year) are only extracted as a by-product at the Malyshevskoye beryllium deposit in the Sverdlovsk region. The bulk of lithium required for the economy is sourced from abroad. Experts estimate that Russia's current lithium needs are about 1,000 to 1,500 tons per year (in terms of pure metal) — fully met through imports from Latin American countries and China. Moreover, less than half of this volume is used for battery production domestically; the remainder is consumed in the manufacturing of specialty lubricants, heat-resistant ceramics, glass, and other materials.
Such dependence on imported strategic raw materials jeopardizes plans for developing high-tech industries. While the leading economies of the world are actively securing control over lithium resources globally, Russia is just beginning to catch up in exploiting its own reserves of "the new oil of the 21st century." The country has significant lithium resources — according to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, identified ore reserves comprise about 3.5 million tons of lithium oxide (equivalent to approximately 1.6 million tons of pure metal). This potential still needs to be converted into actual production.
Government Strategy: Launching Domestic Lithium Production
In 2025, Russian authorities clearly indicated a path toward eliminating the lag in the lithium sector. In February, at the "Technologies of the Future" forum, President Vladimir Putin publicly lamented that lithium extraction in the country is still unestablished — despite the fact that all possibilities existed, and production could have started 10-15 years ago. On November 1, he instructed the government to approve a "roadmap" for the long-term development of the extraction and production of rare and rare-earth metals (including lithium) within a month. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has been appointed as the responsible authority, emphasizing the priority of this issue.
Specific objectives have also been outlined. According to the plans of the Ministry of Natural Resources, by 2030, Russia should produce at least 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually — equivalent to approximately 28,000 tons of pure lithium per year. Achieving such volumes would fulfill the internal needs of the country for the metal and even create an export reserve. The Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates that it will take about six years to achieve complete "import independence" in lithium — thus, by 2030, there are plans to achieve self-sufficiency in the Russian market with domestically sourced lithium raw materials.
Key Lithium Extraction Projects in Russia
To meet the set goals, several investment projects have already been launched or are planned at promising deposits:
- Kolmozerskoye (Murmansk Region) — the largest lithium deposit in the country (approximately 19% of total reserves in the Russian Federation). Developed by the joint venture "Polar Lithium" (MMC «Norilsk Nickel» and the mining division of the state corporation "Rosatom"). The start of ore extraction is scheduled for 2028, with the planned capacity expected by 2030-2031, producing up to 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide per year.
- Polmostundrovskoye (Murmansk Region) — one of the largest lithium deposits on the Kola Peninsula. The development license has been granted to JSC «Khalmec» and PJSC «Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant» (project "Arctic Lithium"). Pilot ore extraction began in 2023, with a goal to ramp production up to an equivalent of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year by 2026.
- Tastygskoye (Tuva Republic) — a large lithium deposit (about 600,000 tons of lithium oxide). The development is being conducted by "Elbrusmetall-Lithium" (part of the state corporation "Rostec"). The license was obtained in 2023, and construction of roads and a processing plant is underway. The plan is to start producing lithium ore concentrate in 2027-2028 (with accompanying niobium, tantalum, and tin), which will then be processed into lithium carbonate at domestic facilities. The project aims to cover up to half of the domestic demand by 2030.
- Kovykta (Irkutsk Region) — an innovative project to extract lithium from underground brines at the Kovykta gas condensate field. Implemented with the participation of PJSC "Gazprom" and the Irkutsk Oil Company. In 2022-2023, a technology for sorptive lithium extraction was developed, and preparations for an experimental industrial facility are underway. If technology trials are successful, production of lithium carbonate from lithium-rich brines in Kovykta is planned to begin by the end of the decade.
Prospects: Russia on the Global Lithium Map
The successful implementation of these projects could fundamentally change Russia's position in the global lithium industry. By reaching an annual output level of approximately 28,000 tons by 2030, the country would enter the ranks of notable lithium producers (for comparison, in 2024, this would exceed Zimbabwe’s or Argentina’s entire annual production). This leap would not only eliminate the domestic market's dependency on imports but also strengthen the raw material base for developing its own high-tech industries. Manufacturing facilities for lithium-ion batteries are already being established in the country — for instance, the "Rosatom" plant for battery cells in the Kaliningrad region is expected to commence operations in 2025. Having access to domestic raw materials and a complete "ore-to-battery" cycle will enable Russia to reduce costs and risks in what is becoming a critically important value chain in the electric mobility and energy sectors.
For investors, the formation of the lithium sector in Russia presents new opportunities. Major players are involved in extraction projects — such as "Norilsk Nickel," "Rosatom," and "Gazprom" — indicating a serious commitment and support at the highest levels. Government involvement and the strategic nature of these programs reduce risks for investors interested in this emerging segment. Undoubtedly, the success of production launches and the volatility of the global market will significantly influence outcomes. Nonetheless, in the context of a global race for resources essential to a "green" economy, Russia's determination to secure a rightful place on the global lithium map appears to be a step toward diversifying its raw material base and strengthening the country’s technological sovereignty.
