Foreign States' Debt to Russia Rises to $33.1 Billion — A 26-Year High: An Analysis of Major Debtors, the Role of the CIS, and Investment Risks for Global Investors.
In 2024, the debt of foreign states to Russia increased by $2.6 billion, reaching $33.1 billion — the highest level since 1998. This assessment is provided by the World Bank, indicating that Russian lending to foreign partners is actively expanding despite sanctions pressure. Moscow has transformed into a significant creditor for several developing countries, increasing the issuance of government loans and export credits.
According to the World Bank, by the end of 2024, 38 countries were indebted to Russia. For the first time in decades, the largest debtor is not a CIS country: Bangladesh surpassed Belarus to take the lead with a debt of $7.8 billion. Belarus's debt, meanwhile, decreased to $7.6 billion, placing it in second position. The top five largest borrowers also include India ($4.9 billion), Egypt ($4.1 billion), and Vietnam ($1.4 billion).
A New Peak of Debt and Historical Context
The volume of external debts owed to Russia has reached a record level since the post-Soviet period. The previous peak occurred in 1998 when the total debt of foreign states was around $38 billion. However, at the end of the 1990s, a significant portion of this amount was a legacy of the Soviet era and subsequently was restructured or written off. In the 2000s, Moscow conducted large-scale debt write-offs for developing countries—estimated to exceed $100 billion—for countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America as part of initiatives to ease the debt burden and strengthen diplomatic ties.
Thanks to the write-offs of old debts, the overall indebtedness to Russia significantly decreased by the 2010s. The current rise to $33 billion primarily results from new loans issued by Russia over the past decade. Unlike the Soviet era, current loans are targeted, aimed at funding specific projects and supporting allies. Thus, the current record level of debt reflects the activation of Russia's role as a creditor in the new geopolitical landscape.
Top 5 Largest Debtors to Russia
The bulk of the debt is concentrated in a few countries. By the end of 2024, five largest borrowers accounted for nearly 80% of the total debt owed to Russia. The leaders are as follows:
- Bangladesh — $7.8 billion (an increase of $1.2 billion over the year)
- Belarus — $7.6 billion (a decrease of $125 million over the year)
- India — $4.9 billion (an increase of $799 million over the year)
- Egypt — $4.1 billion (an increase of $815 million over the year)
- Vietnam — $1.4 billion (unchanged over the year)
For comparison, the smallest debt to Russia is held by the small island nation of Grenada — just about $2,000, indicating a complete repayment or the symbolic nature of obligations. The contrast between the largest and smallest debtors underscores the concentration of the Russian credit portfolio: the two leading countries (Bangladesh and Belarus) together account for nearly half of the entire debt owed to Russia.
CIS Countries: The Importance of Neighbors and Allies
Until recently, CIS countries led Russia's list of debtors. Belarus had long remained the largest borrower, regularly attracting Russian loans to support its budget and implement joint projects. Its current second place ($7.6 billion debt) reflects ongoing close financial ties between Minsk and Moscow, although a slight decrease in debt in 2024 indicates that Minsk has begun to repay some obligations.
Other post-Soviet countries have significantly smaller debts to Russia. For instance, Uzbekistan in 2024 increased its debt by only $39 million — likely utilizing new credit lines for infrastructure projects. Caucasian countries have nearly eliminated their debts: for example, Georgia fully repaid its remaining historical debt to Russia in 2025. Overall, the share of CIS countries in the total external debt to Russia has decreased, giving way to countries in Asia and Africa, but for key allies like Belarus, Russian loans remain critically important.
Export Projects and Strategic Interests
The increase in foreign countries' debts to Russia can be attributed to a targeted lending policy that serves both economic and geopolitical objectives. A significant portion of Russian loans is tied to specific projects: for instance, the construction of nuclear power plants. Bangladesh has received financing from Russia for the construction of the Ruppur NPP — accounting for its rapid debt increase of nearly 19% over the year. Similarly, Egypt is increasing borrowings for the El-Dabaa NPP project and other infrastructure, leading to a 24% rise in its debt in 2024. Such projects provide Russian companies (notably Rosatom) with substantial export contracts and a long-term presence in partner markets.
Another driving force is loans for the purchase of Russian products, primarily military equipment. India, a traditional buyer of Russian arms, increased its debt by nearly $800 million over the past year, likely as part of payments for air defense systems and other technology with deferred terms. Similarly, Vietnam and Egypt in previous years received state export credits for military equipment. Thus, by financing foreign clients, Moscow supports the export of its high-tech goods and strengthens defense-technical cooperation.
Financial Risks and Investment Aspects
For Russia, providing loans to other states is a form of investment, albeit one fraught with risks. Loans are typically granted on favorable terms: for example, loans for nuclear power plants have long grace periods and relatively low interest rates. This aids partners in servicing their debt but yields moderate returns for the lender. Nevertheless, such loans are tied to future fuel supplies, servicing of equipment, and other ancillary services, creating long-term profit sources for Russian companies.
However, the risks of non-repayment persist. Some of Russia's borrowers are under debt pressure and facing economic difficulties. Egypt, for instance, is experiencing a currency shortage, while Belarus’s economy largely depends on Moscow's support. In the event of defaults or the need for restructuring, the Russian budget would have to absorb the costs, as already happened with debts from several countries. At the same time, the overall volume of such assets ($33 billion) is not yet critical for the Russian economy (less than 2% of GDP), but it is noticeably increasing. Investors should consider that the expansion of external credit is part of Russia's strategy to enhance influence, which comes at the cost of frozen capital and potential losses in unfavorable scenarios.
Outlook: Further Growth of the Credit Portfolio
Judging by budget plans, Russia does not intend to reduce the volume of external lending. For the years 2026-2028, the federal budget allocates about 1.8 trillion rubles (approximately $18.5 billion) for providing state and export credits to foreign countries — a 14% increase from previous plans. Such resources will primarily be directed to "friendly" countries for financing infrastructure projects, equipment supplies, and other needs.
If all planned loans are realized, the total indebtedness to Russia could set new historical records in the coming years, exceeding levels from the late 1990s. This will strengthen Moscow's presence in the economies of partners but simultaneously heighten potential risks of non-payment. It is crucial for global investors to monitor this dynamic: the expansion of Russia's credit portfolio reflects the redistribution of financial influences globally — shifting from traditional Western donors to new creditors like Russia and China. For borrowing countries, Russian funds represent an alternative source of development, while for Moscow, they serve as a tool of "soft power" and an extension of economic influence.
