Friday, November 15, 2024: Key Economic Events for Investors
1. European Market Events
Eurozone
- Consumer Price Index (CPI, October) — Published at 10:00 GMT
The Eurozone CPI provides a critical look at inflation across the region. High inflation may pressure the European Central Bank to consider tightening its policy, impacting the euro and European equity markets. Lower-than-expected inflation could ease concerns and support equity growth.
United Kingdom
- Retail Sales (October) — Published at 07:00 GMT
Retail sales data reflects consumer spending trends, a key driver of economic growth. A strong reading supports the pound and retail-focused stocks, while a weak result may raise concerns about consumer sentiment and the broader economy.
2. Asian Market Events
China
- New Home Prices (October) — Published at 01:30 GMT
The housing market is a significant part of China’s economy, and new home prices provide insight into real estate demand. Rising prices suggest strong demand, which can support the yuan, while declining prices may signal a cooling market, impacting Asian markets sensitive to China’s growth.
3. U.S. Market Events
United States
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Industrial Production (October) — Published at 14:15 GMT
U.S. industrial production data measures output across factories, mines, and utilities. Strong production growth supports the dollar and U.S. equity markets, especially in sectors like manufacturing and industrials. Lower production may raise concerns about economic slowing. -
Import and Export Prices (October) — Published at 13:30 GMT
This report highlights inflationary pressures from trade. Rising import prices may suggest inflationary concerns, while increasing export prices indicate higher demand for U.S. goods abroad. Both metrics impact the dollar and inflation-sensitive sectors. -
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November, Preliminary) — Published at 15:00 GMT
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index provides insights into consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. High confidence levels generally support U.S. equity markets and the dollar, while weaker sentiment could indicate economic concerns and affect spending-related sectors. -
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count — Published at 18:00 GMT
The weekly oil rig count is closely watched in the energy sector. A rising count suggests increased U.S. production, which may weigh on oil prices, while a decline in rig activity could support prices, impacting energy stocks.
4. Other Global Events
India
- Wholesale Price Index (WPI, October) — Published at 06:00 GMT
India’s WPI provides a measure of wholesale inflation. High inflation may influence the Reserve Bank of India’s policy outlook, impacting the rupee and local markets.
Brazil
- Economic Activity Index (September) — Published at 12:00 GMT
This index is a leading indicator for Brazil’s GDP, reflecting overall economic activity. Strong activity supports the Brazilian real and may boost investor sentiment, while weaker data could impact market confidence in Brazil’s economic resilience.
Investor Focus:
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Eurozone and UK Inflation Data: The Eurozone CPI and UK retail sales data provide insights into inflationary trends and consumer behavior. High inflation may impact the ECB’s policy stance, affecting European equities, while strong UK retail data supports consumer stocks.
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U.S. Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment: Investors will closely watch U.S. production and consumer confidence data, as these indicators affect economic growth expectations. Positive sentiment and production growth support U.S. markets, while declines may raise recession concerns.
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China’s New Home Prices: The real estate market in China is crucial for growth, with rising prices indicating demand strength. Investors will monitor this data for insights into China’s economic stability.
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Oil Market: The Baker Hughes rig count is a significant indicator for oil traders, as increased drilling activity can weigh on prices, while a decline supports energy stocks and commodities markets.
Impact on U.S. and European Markets
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U.S. Market: The focus will be on industrial production and consumer sentiment data, as these are key indicators of economic health. Inflationary pressures from import and export prices will also be watched closely, as they impact sectors sensitive to international trade.
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European Market: CPI data from the Eurozone will influence inflation expectations, while UK retail sales provide insights into consumer resilience. Both indicators impact the euro and the pound, setting the tone for broader European market sentiment.
🇺🇸 MONETARY POLICY - ECONOMY - USA:
Powell:
⚠️ The economy isn’t signaling any need for the Fed to rush into rate cuts.
⚠️ The strength of the economy allows the Fed to take a cautious approach; there’s no need for the Fed to rush to cut rates.
Earlier, the WSJ suggested the Fed may consider revising its policy at the December meeting if Republicans gain control of both the House and Senate (which they have). Many experts predict that Trump’s policies could be more inflationary due to tax cuts, potentially complicating the Fed's desire to lower rates.
🇺🇸 U.S. Debt - Powell: U.S. debt growth is on an unsustainable path; this issue must be addressed as soon as possible.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market
🇺🇸 INFLATION - USA - HISTORY - MONETARY POLICY
Nordea: CPI inflation trends in the U.S. now and in the 1970s
For Powell, the first and second rate cuts were relatively easy decisions; now, perhaps, a more challenging task lies ahead, experts say.
——————————-
The Fed's biggest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (see chart).
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market
🇺🇸 Friday, November 15, 2024
🔥Today’s Events:
Additional Events:
Popular Reports:
🇺🇸 JAPAN - ECONOMY - REPORT
Japan's GDP for Q3 2024 (preliminary data)
CHINA - ECONOMY - REPORT
China’s Industrial Production (October):
REAL ESTATE - CHINA - ECONOMY
Real estate investments in China fell by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating a worsening downturn in the Chinese real estate market — CNBC.
STOCKS - CHINA - HONG KONG
Current performance of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks:
STOCKS - CHINA - COT - 13F FILINGS
13F filings are being released, showing fund activities from the previous quarter.
These moves by Tepper and Burry indicate that the era of "buy everything" in Chinese stocks is ending, giving way to a more selective approach — BBG
NEV - AUTO - USA
Electric vehicle stocks are under pressure following news that Trump's transition team plans to repeal Biden's $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles.
Elon Musk commented that all EV subsidies should be removed entirely.
🛢🌎 OIL - GAS - COAL - MACRO
Gazprom has highlighted a global rise in demand for traditional energy sources such as oil, gas, and coal in 2024. This trend, they report, stems from geopolitical instability and increased focus on energy security.
According to Gazprom's forecasts, global gas consumption could reach 5.7 trillion cubic meters by 2050, accounting for 26% of the world’s energy mix. The main drivers of this growth are expected to be the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, where gas demand may nearly double.
However, Europe is witnessing an opposite trend. EU countries are intentionally reducing their gas demand, which Gazprom argues could negatively impact their economies, potentially leading to the shutdown of energy-intensive industries.
Overall, despite the global surge in demand for traditional energy sources, regional differences in energy policies could significantly influence supply and demand dynamics in these markets.
AFTER EARNINGS
🇺🇸 NEWS OVERVIEW
📌 Bank of China is increasingly blocking yuan payments from Russia-friendly countries, suspecting that the transfers might be linked to supplies to Russia, according to RBC. Experts note that Chinese banks like Bank of China often adhere to U.S. sanctions more strictly than American banks. For instance, a UAE company couldn’t complete a yuan transfer from Kazakhstan to Chouzhou Commercial via Bank of China as an intermediary. This also affects transactions from Kyrgyzstan and delayed transfers for companies from Georgia and Armenia.
📌 Sberbank is raising rates on its mortgage programs by 3.5 percentage points. The minimum rate will now be 28.1%. For the "Family Mortgage" program, the rate is 11.8% for Moscow and St. Petersburg with loans over 13.5 million rubles, and 12.9% in other regions for loans over 7 million rubles. For the "IT Mortgage," the rate is 13% for loans above 10.5 million rubles.
📌 Mining Restrictions: Starting December 1, Russia plans to introduce restrictions on cryptocurrency mining in certain regions, including Irkutsk, Buryatia, and Zabaykalsky Krai, effective during winter months until 2031. In regions such as the Caucasus, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, as well as in the DPR and LPR, a total mining ban will be in place until 2031 to encourage miners to relocate to areas with surplus electricity.
🇺🇸 China's Economy Stabilizes Amid New Stimulus Measures
In October 2024, China's economy showed signs of improvement due to Beijing's supportive measures. Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, and investments remained stable. However, industrial production growth slowed, and the real estate sector continued to decline, reflecting deeper issues. The Chinese government has launched a $1.4 trillion plan to support indebted local governments and cut interest rates to achieve an annual growth of around 5%. Nonetheless, with Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. President and his promises to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, uncertainties persist. The threat of a trade war could significantly impact China's economy by reducing exports, forcing Beijing to stimulate domestic spending further. Economists predict the need for substantial fiscal stimulus in the coming year to maintain growth momentum, with a continued focus on overcoming the property sector crisis and restoring consumer confidence.
🇺🇸 Decline in China's Residential Property Prices Slows Amid New Stimulus Measures
In October 2024, China's new home prices fell by 5.9% year-on-year, marking the most significant decline since 2015 and the 16th consecutive month of decreases. However, the month-on-month decline rate narrowed to 0.5%, the slowest since March, indicating potential market stabilization due to government support measures. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that expectations for stable or rising home prices grew significantly, with 75.9% of respondents optimistic about the next six months. Only three of the 70 cities surveyed saw year-on-year growth in home prices. Government interventions, such as tax incentives and reduced lending rates, are beginning to have an effect, as evidenced by improved cash flows for property developers and narrowed sales slumps. Despite these improvements, analysts, including Capital Economics' Zichun Huang, remain cautious about a significant rebound in the sector without substantial fiscal easing. Policymakers have also pledged timely delivery of pre-sold homes, addressing a major concern for buyers.
🇺🇸 Recovery of Steel Production in China Amid New Stimulus Measures
In October 2024, steel production in China began to recover due to new economic stimulus measures aimed at supporting the industrial sector. The Chinese government implemented various initiatives, including tax incentives and interest rate cuts, to boost production and investment in the metallurgical industry. These measures led to increased demand for steel and higher production volumes, positively impacting the country's economy. However, analysts caution that additional structural reforms and continued government support are necessary for a sustainable
ИсточникиECONOMY - UK - REPORT
UK GDP for Q3 2024:
POLY - KAZAKHSTAN
Solidcore has announced the completion of its acquisition of a 55% controlling stake in a tin deposit in Kazakhstan. This acquisition strengthens Solidcore's position in the strategic tin mining sector, crucial for various industries, including electronics, alloy production, and packaging materials. The deal aligns with Solidcore’s plans to expand its mineral extraction footprint in Central Asia, aiming to secure a stable tin supply amid rising global demand. Mining operations at the site are expected to commence in the coming months, with Solidcore planning investments in infrastructure to boost production capacity and enhance operational efficiency.
EXPIRATION - CRYPTO
Today, the Deribit exchange will have options expiration for #BTC and #ETH totaling $3.4 billion.
RUB - FX - RUSSIA
The CNY/RUB exchange rate has surpassed 13.8, reaching its highest level since October 2023.
🇺🇸 FALL ECONOMIC FORECASTS FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EU GDP Growth: The European Commission has downgraded the EU GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5% (previously expected 1.6% in the spring forecast).
Global Economy: The global economic growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 3.3%, consistent with the spring assessment.
China: The forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2025 remains unchanged at 4.6%.
USA: The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 2.1%, unchanged from the spring estimate.
Russia: The forecast for Russia’s GDP growth has been revised upward to 3.5% in 2024 (from 2.9%) and to 1.8% in 2025 (from 1.7%).
Brent Oil Prices: The forecast for Brent crude prices in 2025 has been reduced to $73.1 per barrel from the spring forecast of $80.
(Source: TASS)
🇪🇺 ИНФЛЯЦИЯ - ЕВРОЗОНА - ПРОГНОЗ
Еврокомиссия прогнозирует уровень инфляции в еврозоне на следующие годы:
Эти прогнозы отражают постепенное снижение инфляции, что соответствует целям по достижению стабильных уровней цен в долгосрочной перспективе.
🇺🇸 INFLATION - EUROZONE - FORECAST
The European Commission forecasts inflation in the Eurozone at the following levels:
These projections indicate a gradual decline in inflation, aligning with long-term goals for price stability.
Samsung - Buyback
Samsung Electronics announced plans for a $7.2 billion buyback in 2025. This move aims to support share value and increase shareholder returns, underscoring the company's confidence in its business stability and future outlook
APLD - NEWS
Nvidia (ticker #NVID) acquired shares of Applied Digital (ticker #APLD) in Q3 2024, according to the 13F filing. As a result, Applied Digital’s stock rose by 3%.
ECONOMY - CHINA - UPGRADE
First move: Citi has raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for China from 4.7% to 5.0% following the government’s announcement of new economic stimulus measures. These initiatives aim to boost economic activity and support key sectors.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market: "This forecast upgrade signals positive shifts in China’s economy. If the stimulus measures are successfully implemented, they will impact not only the domestic market but also global trade flows, where China plays a crucial role."
🇺🇸 #USA #economy #report
USA - Industrial Production (October)
Comment by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market:
"The decline in U.S. industrial production signals that the economy remains under pressure amid high interest rates. This drop could affect supply chains and corporate earnings, which is particularly crucial for investors assessing risks in the current macroeconomic environment."
🇨🇳🇷🇺 #Trade #China #Russia
The trade turnover between Russia and China reached $196 billion over 10 months, up 5% from the previous year — Novak, TASS
📈 Comment: The growth in trade turnover between Russia and China highlights the resilience and increasing interdependence of the two economies. Amid geopolitical instability, this growth is a significant achievement, reflecting expanded cooperation in energy, technology, and commerce. This underscores the strategic importance of Russia-China relations for the long term.