Thursday, November 14, 2024: Key Economic Events for Investors
1. European Market Events
Eurozone
- Trade Balance (September) — Published at 10:00 GMT
The trade balance report reveals the difference between exports and imports across the Eurozone. A strong surplus supports the euro and signals demand for European goods. A deficit could raise concerns about economic resilience, especially in export-driven sectors.
Germany
- Industrial Production (September) — Published at 07:00 GMT
This report offers insights into the German manufacturing sector. A robust industrial output signals economic health and may strengthen the euro. Lower-than-expected production could negatively impact European indices like the DAX.
United Kingdom
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Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Published at 12:00 GMT
The Bank of England’s interest rate decision is a major event for UK markets. A rate hike typically supports the pound, while an unchanged rate might be viewed as a cautious approach amid inflation concerns. Any shift in policy will impact sectors sensitive to borrowing costs. -
Governor Bailey’s Speech — Published at 12:30 GMT
Following the rate decision, Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks can provide additional insights into the Bank of England’s economic outlook and future policy direction, impacting both the pound and the FTSE 100.
2. Asian Market Events
China
- Fixed Asset Investment (October) — Published at 03:00 GMT
China’s fixed asset investment data reflects infrastructure and manufacturing investments. High investment supports the yuan and can positively influence global commodities, while weak investment data may signal slowing economic growth.
Japan
- Industrial Production (September, Revised) — Published at 04:30 GMT
This revised report on industrial production gives further clarity on Japan’s manufacturing performance. Strong production boosts investor confidence in Japanese equities, while weak data may affect sentiment around the yen.
3. U.S. Market Events
United States
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Jobless Claims (Weekly) — Published at 13:30 GMT
This weekly report on unemployment claims offers a snapshot of the U.S. labor market’s health. Lower claims indicate economic strength, supporting the dollar and major U.S. indices, while higher claims may raise recession concerns. -
Natural Gas Storage (EIA) — Published at 15:30 GMT
The EIA’s report on natural gas storage impacts energy prices and related stocks. Higher storage levels could put downward pressure on gas prices, while lower storage may drive prices up, supporting the energy sector. -
FOMC Interest Rate Decision — Published at 19:00 GMT
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is the day’s highlight for U.S. markets. An increase would signal a focus on controlling inflation, strengthening the dollar, while an unchanged rate may imply concerns over economic growth. -
FOMC Press Conference — Published at 19:30 GMT
Following the rate decision, the FOMC press conference provides additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s economic outlook. Comments on inflation, employment, and future rate hikes will influence investor sentiment across sectors.
Investor Focus:
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Bank of England and FOMC Rate Decisions: Interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Federal Reserve will be major market drivers. Rate hikes strengthen respective currencies, while cautionary stances could impact equities and sectors sensitive to interest rates.
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China’s Fixed Asset Investment: Investment levels in China influence commodities and industrial stocks globally. A high reading supports demand for raw materials, while lower investment may indicate economic challenges.
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U.S. Jobless Claims and Gas Storage: Jobless claims data provides a view on U.S. employment, while natural gas storage impacts energy prices. Both indicators influence investor sentiment on the strength of the economy and the energy sector.
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Eurozone and German Industrial Data: Economic performance in Germany and the broader Eurozone can shift sentiment across European markets. Strong production supports regional stocks and the euro, while weak data may signal economic concerns.
Impact on U.S. and European Markets
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U.S. Market: The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and press conference are pivotal, potentially affecting sectors sensitive to interest rates, like banking and real estate. Jobless claims and natural gas storage data will further influence market sentiment.
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European Market: Investors will be closely watching Germany’s industrial production and the Eurozone trade balance. Additionally, the Bank of England’s rate decision and Bailey’s comments will impact UK equities, particularly sectors sensitive to borrowing costs.
The potential return of German auto brands like BMW and Mercedes to the Russian market by 2025 is a noteworthy development, reflecting a strategic move not only for the German auto industry but also for the Russian automotive market. According to Ulf Schneider, head of Schneider Group, this decision could help prevent the dominance of Chinese brands in Russia and offer Russian consumers a familiar alternative rooted in European quality and reliability.
The German auto industry has faced challenges due to sanctions, losing valuable market share and access to Russian consumers. By re-entering Russia, German brands stand to regain their competitive edge and meet the demand of Russian customers who have long trusted German engineering. For the Russian market, this could mean revitalizing competition, offering diverse choices to buyers, and balancing the current influx of Chinese brands with European options.
For investors, the re-entry of German auto brands into Russia could lead to renewed interest in the automotive sector, with opportunities tied to rebuilding brand infrastructure, expanding dealership networks, and potentially introducing electric or hybrid models in line with global sustainability trends. However, investors should keep in mind the geopolitical and economic factors that could impact this market shift. Monitoring developments in the trade policies and consumer preferences will be essential for assessing the long-term viability and profitability of investments in this space.
Macroeconomic Events
Russian Corporate Events13:00 MSK - 🛢 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
Expectations: Possible demand forecast downgrade amid volatile prices and production cuts.
13:00 MSK - 🇪🇺 Eurozone Q3 2024 GDP (Preliminary)
Expectations: Slower growth due to weak consumer demand and rising interest rates.
15:30 MSK - 🇪🇺 ECB Meeting Minutes
Expectations: Discussion of high inflation risks and future monetary policy steps.
16:30 MSK - 🇺🇸 US Initial Jobless Claims
Expectations: Slight increase, indicating a potential softening in the labor market.
16:30 MSK - 🇺🇸 US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October
Expectations: Slower price growth, potentially impacting inflation expectations.
18:30 MSK - 🛢 US Natural Gas Inventories by EIA
Expectations: Moderate increase ahead of the winter season.
19:00 MSK - 🛢 US Crude Oil Inventories by EIA
Expectations: Decrease due to higher exports and domestic demand.
21:00 MSK - 🇬🇧 Bank of England Governor Speech
Expectations: Reaffirmation of current monetary policy amid economic slowdown.
22:00 MSK - 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speech
Expectations: Support for tight monetary policy to curb inflation.
23:00 MSK - 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speech
Expectations: Potential hints of a rate hike pause amid increasing economic risks.
- 🇷🇺 #ROSB Moscow Exchange to suspend Rosbank shares due to its merger with TBank.
- 🇷🇺 #TCSG TCS Group - EGM on 9M 2024 dividends (92.5 rub/share).
- 🇷🇺 #TCSG EGM on renaming TCS Group to “T-Technologies”.
Major Earnings Reports🇷🇺 #SOFL Softline - Unaudited Financial Results for Q3 and 9M 2024
Expectations: Moderate revenue growth due to stable demand for IT services.
🇷🇺 #VEON VEON - IFRS for Q3 2024
Expectations: Revenue decline due to a shrinking user base.
🇨🇳 #NTES Netease - 13:00 MSK
Expectations: Revenue growth driven by online gaming, the primary profit source.
🇨🇳 #JD JD com - 14:00 MSK
Expectations: Profit decline due to logistics expansion costs.
🇨🇳 #BILI Bilibili - 14:00 MSK
Expectations: Revenue growth driven by increased user engagement.
🇺🇸 #DIS Disney - 14:50 MSK
Expectations: Increased streaming revenue despite content production expenses.
🇺🇸 #WKHS Workhorse - 17:00 MSK
Expectations: Higher losses due to high EV production costs.
🇺🇸 #AMAT Applied Materials - 00:00 MSK
Expectations: Revenue growth driven by high semiconductor demand.
✴️ #BKKT Bakkt - 00:15 MSK
Expectations: Growth in assets and users amid rising cryptocurrency popularity.
Indexes, Futures, and Commodities:
Commodities:
Cryptocurrency:
#Listing #Crypto Bithumb has listed tokens #ALT and #SWELL.
These tokens have seen significant growth following the listing announcement, indicating increased investor interest. Keep an eye on their market performance!
🇷🇺#TCSG "T-Holding" intends to change its ticker from TCSG to "T". The company’s Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders (EGM) will be held today to consider renaming TCS Holding to "T-Technologies."
This change reflects the company's new positioning and could impact investor perceptions of its long-term strategy. Stay tuned for the meeting outcomes!
Following Coinbase, the crypto exchange Upbit has listed the meme coin #PEPE. As a result, PEPE surged by 80%. Interest in the token continues to grow, highlighting its popularity among traders.
Sharp Drop in Yuan Liquidity Cost on Russian Market: Lows Since June
The RUSFAR CNY overnight repo rate on the Moscow Exchange, reflecting the cost of yuan borrowing and placement, plummeted nearly tenfold — from 20% to 2.4% — between November 5 and 8. This marks a record low since June 11, when the Moscow Exchange and its subsidiary NCC were not yet sanctioned by the U.S. The reasons for this drop remain unclear, influenced by the unique structure of the current market.
BMW, Mercedes, and Audi Eye Return to Russia in 2025 to Counter Chinese Market Domination
Ulf Schneider, head of the consulting firm Schneider Group, stated in the Berliner Zeitung that top German automakers — BMW, Mercedes, and Audi — may return to the Russian market as early as 2025. According to Schneider, this move is essential to prevent the dominance of Chinese brands in Russia.
For German auto giants, a re-entry into Russia could be a strategic move to regain market influence and protect their share amid growing competition from rapidly expanding Chinese manufacturers.
Emerging Market Currencies Continue to Slide Amid USD Strength
The index of emerging market (EM) currencies continues its downward trend, pressured by the rising strength of the US dollar. Analysts warn that this sharp USD appreciation may also weigh on EM stocks, potentially increasing funding challenges and financial strain for companies in these markets.
Sell-off in U.S. Treasuries Continues as Yields Rise on Expectations of a Less Dovish Fed in 2025 Due to Trump Victory
The sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds is ongoing, with yields rising as markets anticipate a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve in 2025, following Trump’s election victory. Investors expect that this political shift may influence Fed policy toward higher interest rates, prompting a reevaluation of strategies in the government bond market.
Market Optimism Grows: Fund Managers Expect Global Economic Growth Following Trump’s Election
The November survey of portfolio managers from Bank of America reveals increased optimism about global economic growth after Donald Trump’s election victory. Key factors driving this outlook include anticipated fiscal stimulus and tax cuts in the U.S., which have improved fund managers’ expectations for U.S. equities, as well as for gold and commodity assets. This shift suggests potential growth opportunities across major sectors as markets react to anticipated policy changes.
Trump's Cryptocurrency Support May Push China to Reopen Its Digital Asset Market
Xiao Feng, chairman of the HashKey Group, suggests that the pro-cryptocurrency policies under the Trump administration could serve as a catalyst for China, accelerating steps toward reopening its digital asset market within the next two years. According to Feng, the western sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022, which included its disconnection from the Swift system, may also prompt China to advance its crypto industry. This move would aim to reduce vulnerabilities and strengthen China's financial independence amid a rapidly evolving global landscape.
📌 Brazil: Explosions Near Parliament by Man Dressed as Joker. In a dramatic incident in Brazil's capital, a man dressed as the Joker orchestrated two explosions near the Supreme Court and parliament buildings. The man, identified as Francisco Vanderli Luis, a former candidate from the Liberal Party, detonated explosives near the court building and was later found dead. This tragic act highlights security challenges as Brazil prepares to host the G20 summit on November 18-19.
📌 Russia: Bridge Collapse in Crimea. A major bridge connecting Dzhankoy with Maslovo collapsed under the weight of a heavy truck, affecting nearby rail lines. Two people were injured, with one in serious condition. The incident underscores concerns around overloaded roads and infrastructure in the region.
📌 France: Prosecutors Seek Jail for Marine Le Pen. French prosecutors have demanded a five-year prison sentence and a ban on running for elections for Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, on charges of misusing EU funds, causing a 7 million euro loss. If successful, this ruling could alter the political landscape in France ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.
📌 Spain: Floods Hit Eastern and Southern Regions. Thousands have been evacuated from Valencia and Malaga as heavy rains bring red and yellow-level alerts to the region. Train services between Malaga and Madrid have been halted. Severe rain is expected to fall over the next few hours, increasing the risk of casualties following last month's deadly floods that claimed over 220 lives.
📌 Russia: Potential Route Cancellations in 2025. Russian airlines may be forced to cancel nearly 400 regional routes in 2025 as Rosaviatsiya struggles to allocate 19 billion rubles in subsidies to maintain critical flights, including routes connecting the Far East and Kaliningrad. This delay jeopardizes flight planning and ticket sales for early next year.
📌 Moscow: GULAG History Museum Closes for Safety Violations. Moscow’s GULAG History Museum has temporarily closed due to fire safety issues. Ticket refunds are available, though there is no set reopening date. This highlights the importance of safety standards in public facilities throughout the capital.
🇨🇳 #Stocks #China #Observation
Trading activity is returning to Chinese stocks, reports Bloomberg (BBG). Key observations include:
This resurgence in trading activity suggests a renewed investor interest in the Chinese stock market, with increased leverage potentially reflecting higher confidence and appetite for risk among local and international investors alike.
🇺🇸#PHOR U.S. Lowers Import Duties for PhosAgro
The import duty on PhosAgro's products in the U.S. has been reduced from the initially planned 28.5% to 18.21%. This adjustment provides the Russian company with more favorable conditions to remain competitive in the U.S. market. Lower import duties could strengthen PhosAgro’s position among phosphate fertilizer suppliers, allowing for better pricing for American consumers and supporting the company’s business expansion in international markets.
This move may also be a positive indicator for investors, as PhosAgro can mitigate duty-related losses and potentially boost export revenues, contributing to improved financial results in the future.
🇺🇸#VEON #earnings
In the third quarter, VEON reported a 9.8% increase in revenue, reaching $1 billion, although EBITDA declined by 1.5%. This decline might indicate higher operational costs or changes in revenue structure.
The revenue growth highlights VEON's active development and rising demand for its services. However, the drop in EBITDA warrants attention from investors as it could impact long-term profitability.
🇪🇺🇷🇺#LNG #Europe #Russia #Gas
Germany’s Ministry of Economic Affairs has demanded that the operator of LNG terminals cease accepting LNG from Russia, as reported by the Financial Times. This action aims to further reduce Germany's dependency on Russian energy amid ongoing strained relations with Russia.
The United States has proposed aligning its regulations with those of the EU to facilitate the growth of its LNG exports to Europe, according to Reuters. LNG exports are emerging as a crucial element in trade negotiations between the US and the EU. In line with this, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested discussing the replacement of Russian LNG with imports from the US.
⚠️#Copper < $9000 for the first time in 2 months amid strengthening dollar
Copper prices have fallen below the $9000 per ton mark for the first time in two months, driven by the strengthening US dollar. This trend could exert pressure on commodity assets and impact market sentiment, especially amidst volatile currency markets and shifting interest rate expectations.
⚠️🪙#Silver < $30 for the first time since September 19
Silver prices have dipped below the $30 per ounce mark for the first time since September 19, possibly indicating reduced demand amidst current market volatility and changing rate expectations. The weakening interest in precious metals aligns with the strengthening dollar and the rising appeal of alternative assets.
Zeekr Q3 2024 Financial Results
🇨🇳 Zeekr, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, has released its financial results for Q3 2024:
This report reflects Zeekr's ongoing efforts to enhance efficiency and reduce losses, though revenues came in slightly below expectations.
🇺🇸 US Stocks Supply Declines Due to Record Buybacks
The total supply of US stocks has fallen by a record $473 billion in recent years, driven by unprecedented stock buybacks, according to Bank of America. This trend highlights companies' strategies to increase shareholder value by reducing outstanding shares, which may positively impact stock prices in the long run.
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Торговая напряженность: Китай предупреждает о рисках для глобального роста из-за мер США
По данным Министерства торговли Китая, внешняя торговля в первые 10 месяцев 2023 года сыграла ключевую роль в поддержке экономического восстановления Китая. Однако, с учетом последних шагов США, в частности, намерений администрации Трампа по введению дополнительных пошлин, эксперты прогнозируют возможные последствия для экономического роста страны и мировой экономики в целом.
Президент Китая Си Цзиньпин в ноябре отметил, что Китай остается главным двигателем глобального роста, но в условиях торговых ограничений со стороны США этот статус может оказаться под угрозой. Специалисты указывают, что новая торговая политика может затормозить как двусторонний товарооборот, так и рост мировой экономики, усиливая давление на торговые связи и вызывая цепную реакцию на глобальных рынках.
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Trade Tensions: China Warns of Global Growth Risks Due to US Measures
China’s Ministry of Commerce reports that foreign trade was crucial in supporting the country’s economic recovery over the first 10 months of 2023. However, with recent moves by the US, particularly the Trump administration’s plans to impose additional tariffs, experts anticipate potential impacts on China’s growth and the global economy as a whole.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a November statement, emphasized that China remains the strongest engine of global growth. Yet, with heightened trade restrictions from the US, this status could face challenges. Analysts warn that this new trade policy could disrupt both bilateral trade flows and global economic growth, heightening pressure on trade relationships and triggering ripple effects across international markets.
GAS IN EUROPE > $500 — First Time Since November 28
Gas prices in Europe have surpassed the $500 mark per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since November 28. This price increase is driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, reduced supplies, and seasonal changes in demand. Amid increasing global energy market instability, this price surge raises fresh concerns about the upcoming winter season and potential gas supply disruptions
🇹🇼 #Foxconn #AI #macro
"By 2025, we will hold no less than 40% of the global AI server market" – Foxconn
Taiwanese electronics giant Foxconn has announced its ambition to secure at least a 40% share of the global artificial intelligence (AI) server market by 2025. Currently, Foxconn already holds around 40% of this segment, emphasizing its strong influence in the industry. ()
The company's drive to expand its market share is driven by increasing demand for AI-optimized servers. Foxconn is actively investing in technological development and scaling its production capacity to meet client needs and strengthen its market position. ()
Additionally, Foxconn collaborates with leading cloud service providers, including AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure, contributing to its growth in the AI server sector. Market projections indicate that the AI server market will reach $150 billion by 2027, offering significant opportunities for Foxconn's continued advancement in this field. ()
⚠️🇨🇳🇭🇰 #Stocks #China #HongKong
Hang Seng Tech Index Down 20% from October Peak
The Chinese stock market, particularly the tech sector, has been under significant pressure recently. The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the performance of major tech companies, has declined by 20% from its October peak. As of November 11, 2024, the index closed at 4,651.71 points, reflecting a continued downward trend. ()
Key factors contributing to this decline include:
Regulatory Pressure: Increased scrutiny by Chinese authorities over tech companies is creating uncertainty for investors.
Economic Growth Slowdown: Slowing economic growth in China is negatively impacting corporate profitability.
Global Economic Factors: Trade tensions and shifts in the global economy are also adding to market instability.
Investors are advised to closely monitor the situation and consider these factors when making investment decisions.