Prior to this, the export ban on DF applied only to traders, while direct producers, namely oil refining plants (ORPs), were allowed to export. A full ban on gasoline exports was imposed earlier this April. The time gap between the restrictions is due to the fact that gasoline production in Russia is only 10-15% above domestic demand, whereas DF is produced at 40-45% above the country's needs. This is why gasoline was the first to face a complete ban.
Fuel issues in Russia began against the backdrop of seasonal demand growth and ORP shutdowns due to unscheduled repairs following drone attacks. Initially, this led only to rising prices in wholesale and retail markets, but now, there is a looming threat of an actual fuel shortage.
As noted in an interview with "RG" by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the export ban appears to be aimed at saturating the DF supply chain. The existing capacities, even considering unscheduled repairs at ORPs, are sufficient to meet domestic market demands. However, with exports now prohibited, producers will have no alternative but to supply fuel to Russian consumers—whether in small wholesale or to filling stations.
The fact is that exporting DF remains more profitable for producers in our country than supplying it to the domestic market. Given the lost volumes due to ORP repairs, exports could begin to compromise the domestic market.
According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, it cannot be said that there is a diesel deficit. However, given the emerging problems and internal demands in various sectors, preventive measures have become crucial to avoid a deficit and address the issue.
The expert believes that despite the government's position on keeping fuel prices under control, the primary goal is to ensure accessibility for the population and businesses. The price will depend on the market regardless.
Tereshkin believes that off-exchange prices will continue to significantly exceed exchange levels, although the rise in prices in the off-exchange segment is likely to slow down.
Another aspect is related to the technical specifics of petroleum product production. From a ton of crude oil, it is not possible to produce only gasoline or only diesel. Approximately, this results in about 300 kg of diesel, 240 kg of gasoline, and 410 kg of other petroleum products. If diesel production starts to decrease due to market saturation, the output of other petroleum products will also decline, and in the worst case, this could impact oil extraction. Additionally, the ban on DF exports is much more sensitive for Russian ORPs than the ban on gasoline exports. Diesel remains one of the two key export petroleum products (alongside fuel oil), with high margins.
Tereshkin is confident that if the ban is limited to a two-month period, it will not affect oil production dynamics, especially since a reduction in oil refining usually leads to an increase in oil exports alongside a decrease in petroleum products.
In addition to the diesel export ban, Novak announced that starting in July, Russia will begin importing petroleum products. This is also expected to help saturate the domestic market, primarily with gasoline. Given that the prices of imported gasoline are higher than those in Russia, the government has previously decided that importers of fuel will be able to receive a price dampener—compensation from the budget for part of the difference between domestic fuel costs and its export price. This measure will help prevent a spike in domestic gasoline and diesel prices while making such supplies profitable for intermediaries. Previously, damping could only be received by Russian and Belarusian ORPs. Now it extends to gasoline imports: from June 1, 2026, a coefficient of 0.9 will be set for fuel from EAEU countries, while a separate formula for importing from other countries will be established based on import parity.
Earlier, experts estimated that the total volume of necessary fuel imports into Russia per month would hardly exceed 0.5-1 million tons, which should not significantly impact prices at filling stations.
Source: RG.RU
