Last week, there was a significant acceleration in the growth of fuel prices at gas stations in the capital. The price of AI-95 gasoline rose by 0.3% over the course of seven days, while diesel increased by 0.6%. According to the Moscow Fuel Association (MTA), the average price of AI-95 at Moscow gas stations reached 71.17 rubles per liter, while the price for diesel fuel (DT) was 77.93 rubles per liter. Data from Rosstat for the entire country will only be released on the evening of May 27, but typically, it closely aligns with the dynamics of MTA statistics. Furthermore, there are over 2,400 gas stations operating in Moscow and the region, accounting for 8.4% of all gas stations in Russia. While prices vary from region to region, their dynamics generally follow a similar trend across the country, with the exception of localized shortages. Since late April, the weekly increase in gasoline prices across Russia has not exceeded 0.1%. The acceleration in price hikes occurred against the backdrop of reports regarding massive drone attacks on oil refineries in the European part of Russia. In April, the attacked facilities primarily catered to export, while from the beginning of May, the focus shifted to plants that supply fuel for the domestic market (including Moscow and the region, Central Russia, the Northwest, the South, Volga region, and Ural). According to Reuters, production was halted or reduced at five major refineries in Russia. However, this is unlikely to be the primary cause of the price increase. Rather, emergency repairs at refineries seem to have become an informational pretext for price hikes, exacerbating existing internal issues within oil refining. This is evidenced by the unexpected rise in diesel prices. There is currently no talk of a diesel shortage in the country, as production is nearly double that of domestic demand. However, diesel has become the leader in price growth in the past week. If Rosstat presents statistics similar to those of MTA across the country, the increase in diesel prices will outpace the country’s average inflation following gasoline prices. Additionally, the Ministry of Energy has been consistently reminding stakeholders that the domestic market is well-stocked with gasoline, diesel fuel, and aviation kerosene, with a stable logistics infrastructure and sufficient fuel reserves. As noted in a conversation with "RG" by Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner" and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, the price increase is not directly related to attacks on refineries. Rather, it is a reaction to the suppression of fuel market swap prices and gas station prices. To prevent price increases, merely administrative measures are not enough; an oversupply of offerings is necessary. However, there are no economic incentives to increase oil refining volumes. Firstly, the situation regarding gasoline is such that its production capacity barely exceeds domestic market needs by only 10-15%. The volume of AI-95 gasoline sold on exchanges from early April to May 26 has dropped by 27.5% compared to the same period last year. The exchange is one of the primary sources for gas stations to acquire fuel. Reduced supply leads to increasing prices. Both gasoline and diesel production in Russia exceeds consumption. According to Dmitry Prokofyev, Director of External Communications at NEFT Research, the rise in prices for premium gasoline and diesel is due to a combination of three overlapping factors. Refineries have been facing a wave of unscheduled repairs, leading to primary oil processing in May being below expectations. Consequently, less fuel is being physically produced. Prokofyev also indicates that there is inconsistent regulation for gasoline and diesel. Starting in April 2026, the government imposed a complete ban on gasoline exports. Concurrently, oil companies have been mandated to restrain retail price increases at gas stations to align with inflation levels in 2026, effectively closing off a primary channel for offsetting rising costs. Diesel, however, has not faced an export ban, creating fundamentally different incentives: gasoline producers find themselves confined to the domestic market with limited profit margins, while diesel retains access to export alternatives. As global prices rise (due to the crisis in the Hormuz Strait), producers are incentivized to redirect diesel flows to exports, adding additional pressure on domestic prices. The third factor is seasonal, as May is peak sowing season when demand for diesel traditionally spikes among agricultural producers. The rise in diesel prices is not a coincidence but a logical consequence of the market's configuration, where reduced internal supply coincides with stable seasonal demand, compounded by the preservation of export alternatives, according to the expert. The information landscape has also played a role, believes Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. The market tends to respond not solely to the actual balance of supply and demand but also to expectations regarding the availability of fuel. The real picture will likely not become clear until June when the situation concerning fuel shipments from the largest refineries is elucidated. Additionally, the specifics of regulation traditionally play their part: exchange prices for AI-95 are not factored into subsidies for oil companies from the budget, thereby exposing risks of accelerated price increases specifically in this segment of the market, even amid stable fuel production. Moreover, in Prokofyev's view, oil companies with limited AI-95 supplies may prioritize the distribution of their gasoline to support their own sales structures. This directly increases the vulnerability of independent gas stations operating "from truck to truck." Currently, the risk of shortages of certain types of fuel in Central Russia and Moscow is not systemic but structural, concentrated around specific fuel types and sales channels. This is primarily linked to logistical disruptions and the market vulnerability of independent gas stations, rather than a lack of fuel itself, says the expert. Source: RG.RU