Since the end of last year, according to Rosstat, retail prices for gasoline have increased by 1.2%, while diesel fuel prices (DT) have risen by 1.3%. According to the Moscow Fuel Association (MTA), prices at gas stations in the capital have seen an even greater increase: during the same period, they rose by approximately 1.8% across all fuel types (more than one ruble).

The reasons behind the price hike are not hard to find; it was anticipated. Beginning in 2026, excise taxes on gasoline and diesel were increased by 5.1%, with their contribution to the price being around 20%. Furthermore, VAT has increased by 2%, which, as is well known, is collected in Russia on every sale of goods. Moreover, the fuel supply chain to gas stations rarely involves just one seller and one buyer.

In the wholesale segment, however, the situation remains relatively calm. Prices have dropped from their October peaks and are currently at levels seen in the spring of last year. Thus, we are keen to understand whether retail prices have fully accounted for the increase in tax burdens and what lies ahead.

As Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, explained, the goal to maintain retail gasoline and diesel prices within a corridor determined by inflation parameters remains unchanged. "I do not see any prerequisites for sharp price jumps at this time," he told "RG".

However, Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the "Reliable Partner" Association's Supervisory Board and a member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" contest, believes that the increase in fiscal burden has only been partially accounted for. VAT has risen not only for fuel but also for all services, including transportation. The volumes under the new tariffs and with the new VAT are just starting to be shipped, indicating that there is still potential for further increases. The question remains what is meant by stabilization. In current conditions, we are programmed for a steadily rising price for gasoline and diesel within the framework of inflation.

According to Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner at NEFT Research, today no more than 50% of the tax burden increase has been transferred to retail prices. A gradual rise will continue until the start of the high season, after which the price increase will be driven by demand, with its magnitude depending on the balance between supply and demand.

Moreover, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, noted that the rise in prices at gas stations early this year was related not only to the indexing of fuel excises but also to the retail networks' efforts to recover losses incurred in late November and December 2025, when gasoline prices fell for over a month and a half.

The fuel market has not yet fully accounted for the increase in tax burdens
Tereshkin clarifies that the increase in VAT to 22% is significant, but it is not the determining factor for the fuel market. The payments under the damping mechanism (compensation to oil producers from the budget for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export prices) will play a much larger role. There are no prerequisites for their increase since subsidies are tied to external (export) prices for petroleum products, which are falling following declines in oil prices. For instance, the alternative export price for AI-92 decreased from 69,166 rubles per ton in November 2025 to 57,471 rubles per ton in December 2025 (this figure is calculated by regulators when assessing damping payments). Consequently, subsidies for fuel producers may reach a multi-year low by early 2026.

The importance of damping payments for companies can be gauged by the events of the 2023 fuel crisis. At that time, an attempt to halve these payments led to uncontrolled price surges at gas stations. There are also data from 2024 suggesting that the share of damping payments in "Gazprom Neft's" revenue amounted to 44%. In 2024, the company received 1.8 trillion rubles from the budget under the damping mechanism. In 2025, these payments declined and are unlikely to exceed 1 trillion rubles (December statistics are not yet available).

According to media reports, the initiative for direct fuel sales to small wholesale entities (gas stations, agricultural producers, and industrial consumers) is currently under consideration to reduce the number of fuel resales and speed up logistics.

Stankevich highlights that the FAS and the St. Petersburg Exchange are striving to improve the public trading rules for fuel, reducing the number of intermediaries in transactions and introducing regulations for sales in the small wholesale segment. "Market mechanisms are certainly not ideal at present, especially considering that the price indicators for crude oil we operate with are set on foreign platforms. However, abandoning market trading would be a significant step backward without an alternative. We simply have no other mediator capable of presenting an objective picture of pricing based on supply and demand."

From Frolov's perspective, this will undoubtedly be beneficial for independent gas stations (which account for more than half of gas stations in Russia), as it will provide an additional procurement channel. However, he believes this will not significantly affect retail prices, nor will it impact the wholesale market segment.

Gusev asserts that as long as it is not possible to reduce the cost of access to services for end consumers at the exchange, a refusal from traders (resellers) is unrealistic.

Tereshkin expressed a similar view, noting that the idea of direct sales to wholesalers is unlikely to have a significant effect — a far more effective solution would be to raise the regulatory standards for exchange sales of gasoline and diesel. However, the fact that new ideas are being sought in conditions where regulation of the industry annually revolves around damping payments and export bans is important. Regulators are looking for a means to reduce prices "outside the exchange," so we are likely to see further initiatives in the coming months, the expert confidently predicts.

Source: RG.RU