What is Happening in the Russian Fuel and Lubricants Market

— In 2025, the situation in the Russian fuel market has noticeably worsened, especially for gasoline. Wholesale prices for gasoline have been steadily rising since February of this year. For instance, AI-95 has increased by more than 45% (from 55,600 rubles/ton to approximately 82,000 rubles), while AI-92 has risen to 70,000 rubles per ton. Wholesale prices for diesel have remained relatively stable, currently around 61,200 rubles per ton, — notes Marcel Salikhov, president of the Institute for Energy and Finance.

According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the fuel marketplace Open Oil Market, the summer price increase is predictable.

— Summer is traditionally a "hot" season for the gasoline market, driven by increased passenger car transport. However, this year two factors have coincided: a forced reduction in gasoline production at refineries, as well as cuts in subsidies, — states Tereshkin.

Experts point out that domestic prices are currently rising by 9-10% compared to the same period last year, supported by the damping mechanism. However, payments on the damping mechanism have decreased by 47% as of the end of August 2025 (to 685 billion rubles), which is related to changes in external prices for oil products.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov, in an interview with Forbes, emphasizes that this is not the first crisis for the Russian fuel industry. Comparable spikes in prices were observed in the summer of 2018, when the Russian government was forced to reduce excise taxes, as well as in August-September 2023, when, following the Finance Ministry's attempt to "halve" payments to oilmen, exchange quotes for gasoline and diesel reached multi-year highs.

Supply Constraints Amid Rising Demand

— The main reasons for the escalation of the crisis are a combination of supply and demand factors. Demand is increasing due to structural factors: the population has been traveling more by car, including over long distances. According to our estimates, domestic demand for gasoline will grow by 7% this year, reaching 36 million tons, — explains Salikhov.

The government has already taken steps to stabilize the situation.

— A ban on gasoline exports has been introduced. However, the volumes are relatively small — about 10% of production. Moreover, the restrictions do not apply to supplies to EAEU countries, including Kazakhstan. So far, these measures have not made a significant impact. Additionally, authorities are attempting to employ informal mechanisms and are persuading companies not to raise prices, — states Salikhov.

According to Tereshkin's forecast, regulators will likely raise the maximum thresholds for exchange prices, beyond which companies lose their right to damping.

— The current threshold for gasoline is 66,495 rubles per ton. Raising this threshold will allow oil producers to increase revenue and maintain subsidies, while regulators can ensure predictability in price dynamics, — he explains.

Prospects and Impact on Central Asia

Experts agree that the situation in the fuel market may worsen in the coming months.

— The share of idle refinery capacities will reach nearly 25%. A particularly serious shortage is expected in southern Russia. The accident at the Volgograd Oil Refinery is especially troubling, — highlights Salikhov.

He adds that the intensification of shortages is also affecting neighboring countries.

— Russia is the main supplier of imported oil products to Central Asia. Therefore, the fuel deficit in Russia "transfers" to neighboring countries. This leads to rising fuel prices and intensifies inflation, — explains Salikhov.

Experts see the necessity for structural changes. According to Tereshkin, a long-term solution would involve increasing fuel production, and one potential solution could be the construction of refineries in Kazakhstan, possibly with Russian participation. This would allow for the use of technologies not available in Russia and would partially relieve the domestic market, states the expert.

— For Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, it is essential to modernize their oil refining capabilities to reduce dependence on supplies from Russia. Additionally, Kazakhstan will have to gradually align its fuel prices with those of Russia: currently, prices in Kazakhstan are significantly lower, creating incentives for unofficial exports and reducing the market's attractiveness for imports, — concludes Salikhov.