The Kyiv Project for Supplying Azerbaijani Gas through Romania to Ukraine Lasted Only a Month
The initiative that began in August for the delivery of Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine via the Trans-Balkan Pipeline and Romania was halted by September. As a result, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Russian gas, obtained through intermediaries such as Hungary and Slovakia. Without Russian supplies and other energy resources, the country would face significant challenges.
According to the Ukrainian outlet “Strana.ua,” the shipments of Azerbaijani gas have ceased, with no deliveries recorded for September.
In the first ten days of September, Ukraine received 236 million cubic meters of gas, but through different routes. Hungary and Slovakia provided Ukraine with 145 million cubic meters of gas, while Poland supplied 101 million cubic meters.
“Strana.ua” speculates that the halt in Azerbaijani gas deliveries could be linked to damage to gas transport infrastructure along the borders with Romania and Moldova.
“There are two theories regarding this situation: either the deliveries themselves have been stopped, or there was an infrastructure breakdown. Western and Ukrainian media will likely promote the latter theory, suggesting it was a Russian attack on the pipeline. However, in reality, Ukraine's contract with Azerbaijani company SOCAR was not a permanent or long-term arrangement. It was an agreement for the supply of certain irregular gas batches, which may simply have come to an end,” explains Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (NESF).
Moreover, this arrangement between Naftogaz of Ukraine and Azerbaijani SOCAR may have been signed merely for appearances. It was suddenly concluded in July, right after Ukrainian media began actively inquiring about the real sources of imported gas for Ukraine.
The primary gas suppliers to Ukraine are Hungary and Slovakia, who procure this gas from Russia. Until 2025, Hungary and Slovakia received Russian gas via transit through Ukraine. However, this year, Kyiv halted the transit. Nonetheless, Russian gas deliveries were successfully redirected to these European countries through alternative routes—namely the "Turkish Stream." As a result, Kyiv has been publicly exposed in its own press for purchasing gas of Russian origin. This has become a real and dangerous scandal.
The signing of the gas supply contract with Azerbaijani SOCAR has been interpreted as a crisis management information campaign by Kyiv, according to Yushkov. Politically, this situation appears very unfavorable for a country that calls on Europe to stop purchasing Russian gas while simultaneously benefiting from Russian energy resources.
“Essentially, Ukraine is shouting that Europeans should cease purchasing Russian hydrocarbons and trading with Russia to prevent it from profiting, while at the same time it forms additional demand for Russian gas. Furthermore, Ukraine provokes a gas shortage in the European market, which helps maintain high prices. Consequently, Russia profits more from every cubic meter of gas sold, regardless of whether it goes to Hungary or Ukraine, than it would have without this shortage,” reflects Igor Yushkov.
The contract with Azerbaijani SOCAR was presented by Ukrainian media as a diversification of gas supply to distance itself from accusations of relying solely on Russian gas.
“However, it was never specified that Naftogaz would only purchase gas of Azerbaijani origin. The fact is that Azerbaijani company SOCAR often operates in a trading capacity, meaning it buys and resells third-party gas. This could include gas purchased directly or through intermediaries from Gazprom.
When our gas flows through the "Turkish Stream," there may be excess supplies that traders buy for resale,” says Igor Yushkov. At the same time, the expert does not discount the possibility of damage to the gas transport infrastructure, stating that one issue does not exclude the other.
It is also possible that the issue lies within the infrastructure itself. “The implementation of this project could be affected by a shortage of pipeline infrastructure. This refers to the Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP) pipelines, with capacities of 16 billion and 11 billion cubic meters per year respectively. To increase supplies to Europe and cater to new consumers, Azerbaijan will need to develop additional gas transport infrastructure,” remarks Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues not only to purchase Russian gas through third parties but also to acquire oil products derived from Russian oil, in addition to electricity generated from Russian nuclear fuel.
“Our oil flows via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, which are permitted to purchase it. Local refineries have the right to process it and supply fuel for both their own needs and other countries outside the European Union. Thus, the surplus oil products derived from Russian oil are resold to Ukraine by Hungary and Slovakia. Furthermore, the nuclear stations in these countries also operate on Russian nuclear fuel, and Ukraine purchases the surplus electricity generated by these plants,” concludes Igor Yushkov.
Source: VZGLED
