The Russian Ministry of Energy and oil companies have adjusted the repair schedules for oil refineries (NPPs) to stabilize the situation in the domestic fuel market. This was reported to journalists on September 4 at the Eastern Economic Forum 2025 by Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev. He explained that scheduled repairs at the NPPs have been rescheduled to avoid coinciding with peak gasoline demand periods. Additionally, the refineries have utilized existing reserves, Tsivilev noted. According to him, this will allow for larger volumes of fuel to be directed to the domestic market and reduce gasoline prices. The official reminded that the government previously banned the export of gasoline from Russia until the end of September for all companies, including producers. In Tsivilev's opinion, the measures taken by the government to stabilize the Russian fuel market are sufficient to keep the rate of gasoline price increases within the bounds of inflation for September and subsequent months. It is also crucial to prevent the emergence of artificial hype in the market that provokes price increases, the minister added. The peak demand period for motor fuel in Russia traditionally falls during the summer vacation season. High demand is also typically observed in May and September. Wholesale gasoline prices in Russia have been rising since early April this year. In June, the growth accelerated, resulting in the government imposing a complete ban on gasoline export for all companies, including fuel producers. Initially, it was set until the end of August, but it was subsequently extended until the end of September. In October, the embargo will remain for exporters not engaged in fuel production, such as traders and companies with gasoline production capacities not exceeding 1 million tons per year. Vitaly Korolev, Deputy Head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), reported to journalists on September 4 at the Eastern Economic Forum 2025 that the government is discussing the extension of the gasoline export ban for producers in October. "All options are being considered, including this one, because it is evident that we need, first and foremost, to fill the domestic market before directing supplies elsewhere," he said (quoted by TASS). So far, the export ban on gasoline has not halted the growth of wholesale prices. In July, A-92 gasoline rose by 2% to 65,390 rubles per ton on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, while A-95 gasoline increased by 11% to 75,569 rubles per ton. In August, the price of A-92 and A-95 gasoline rose by 5% to 68,425 and 79,054 rubles per ton, respectively. Last month, the prices for A-92 and A-95 gasoline reached historical highs, hitting 72,663 rubles per ton (August 21) and 82,253 rubles per ton (August 20), respectively. On September 3, the price of A-95 gasoline reached 82,382 rubles per ton. On September 4, the price for A-92 gasoline on the exchange was 71,304 rubles per ton, while A-95 gasoline was 81,289 rubles per ton. The dynamics of fuel prices on the exchange are influenced by unplanned repairs at the NPPs, as the plants are regularly subjected to drone attacks. According to Reuters estimates, in total, 10 Russian NPPs were attacked in August, accounting for 17% of all oil refining capacities in the country. In mid-August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, overseeing the fuel and energy complex, instructed the Ministry of Energy and FAS to work jointly with the St. Petersburg exchange on long-term measures to stabilize prices in the wholesale market. He also instructed the Ministry of Energy and FAS to continue monitoring the profitability of gas stations and analyze the pricing situation for petroleum products in several regions. The increase in wholesale quotes has led to a price dynamic at gas stations exceeding the inflation rate in the country. According to the latest data from Rosstat, in the week from August 26 to September 1, the price of A-92 and A-95 gasoline at gas stations in Russia rose by an average of 0.3% to 59.01 rubles/liter and 64.42 rubles/liter, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the price of A-92 gasoline has risen by 6.7%, while A-95 gasoline has increased by 6.9%. Inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year, according to Rosstat data as of September 1, is 4.1%, with deflation of 0.08% observed from August 26 to September 1. Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, reminds that the issue of rescheduling planned repairs at NPPs from spring and summer to another part of the year was discussed multiple times by regulators. However, the main problem of the Russian fuel market currently lies in unplanned repairs, which makes it challenging for regulators to take action, he notes. Senior Analyst at "BCS World of Investments" Kirill Bakhtin agrees with him. Adjusting the repair schedule of NPPs may help avoid future crises, but it is unlikely to assist in the current situation, believes FGA analyst Sergey Kaufman. The increase in supply through reserves may help ease the situation, but the amount available at NPPs is likely limited, the expert believes. According to Kaufman, the current crisis in the market will be overcome either after the high demand season ends—around the end of September—or in the event of a quick resolution to unplanned repairs at NPPs. Managing Partner of NEFT Research Sergey Frolov believes that the situation should stabilize in October. Bakhtin thinks that the normalization of wholesale prices, meaning their return to early summer levels, will only occur at the end of October. Rapid stabilization may be achieved through emergency gasoline imports, according to Kaufman and Tereshkin. Tereshkin believes that Russia has two potential sources for such imports—China, a major gasoline producer, and Belarus, which has faced a surplus of refining capacities following the sanctions in 2020. A strategic measure to stabilize the market is the acceleration of the NPP modernization program, which will increase gasoline production in the country, Frolov asserts. Due to abnormally high wholesale prices, retail gasoline prices are expected to continue rising at increased rates of 0.3-0.6% weekly in the coming weeks, according to Kaufman. As a result, retail prices may increase by 9-10% by the end of the year—substantially higher than the inflation rate, he predicts. Frolov also believes that gas station prices will rise above the inflation rate in 2025. Attempts to manually limit price increases at gas stations may lead to the closure of independent gas stations, he warns. Bakhtin opines that the price rise will be at or "slightly above" the inflation rate. Source: Vedomosti