It is specifically stated that the oil for processing is transferred to foreign refineries on tolling terms, meaning that the end product—fuel with specified characteristics—is to be obtained.
This measure is aimed at preventing any hint of fuel shortages in our market. The focus is primarily on gasoline, the production capacity of which in our country exceeds consumption volumes by only 10-15%. This year, due to unscheduled repairs at our NPPs caused by drone strikes, the risk of gasoline shortages has emerged in various regions of Russia. This has been the main reason behind the rise in its market quotations and prices at filling stations.
Of course, one could simply import fuel—say, from China or Belarus— but in that case, the price would be significantly higher than the Russian one. Our market operates mechanisms that lower prices for domestic consumers. One such mechanism is the reverse excise tax. Its application will allow imported fuel to be sold at prices similar to (or nearly equivalent) to those of Russian fuel.
As noted by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, in a conversation with "RG", the decision is forced, but justified under current conditions. In any case, imports should be viewed as a temporary phenomenon. The established Russian refining capacities significantly exceed domestic demand for both gasoline and diesel. The goal is not only to restore production levels but also to increase them. For gasoline, in the medium term, at least a 10% increase over the 2024 level is expected.
Sergei Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, expressed a similar view, believing that given the current conditions (attacks on Russian energy facilities), this measure appears justified and may help cover local shortages.
A pertinent question arises: where might the supplies come from? According to Stankevich, Belarusian refineries are the primary source.
Belarus has two refineries—Mozyr and Novopolotsk ("Naftan"), which have historically been oriented towards external markets, points out Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET fuel marketplace. According to the latest available data from Belstat, Belarus produced 3.2 million tons of gasoline in 2020, of which 1.3 million tons went to the domestic market, and 1.8 million tons were exported (the remaining volumes likely went into storage, based on Belstat data). The expert notes that even with a full reorientation to the Russian market, Belarusian refineries could supply less than 10% of Russia's gasoline needs (annual demand for gasoline in Russia is 38-40 million tons).
Additionally, there is a logistics problem. The most problematic region for fuel in Russia is the Far East, but shipments from Belarusian refineries to this area will be "expensive." Gasoline and diesel fuel (DT) are already more expensive in the Far East than in other regions of the country.
Therefore, Frolov believes that China could be the primary candidate for supplies, as its refining capacities are currently underutilized due to the slowdown in economic growth. Consequently, China presents one of the most attractive logistical options.
However, as Stankevich mentioned, options for importing supplies from Asian countries have been discussed and continue to be discussed, but they seem unlikely, as potential participants in such deals are either compelled to purchase oil and fuel abroad themselves or fear falling under U.S. sanctions due to trade-economic relations with Russia.
As Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Russia's Filling Stations" competition notes, theoretically, one could expect imports from Chinese or Indian refineries. However, such supplies are unlikely to be advantageous from a logistical standpoint. Refineries are typically built within walking distance of the sales market or near oil extraction points.
Nevertheless, if we are speaking solely of a temporary measure, it will enable us to weather the "difficult times" of peak demand—specifically for gasoline, which occurs at the end of spring, summer, and the beginning of autumn. From Tereshkin's perspective, the effect of this measure will be limited. To mitigate the risk of shortages, it is essential to increase the output of petroleum products domestically.
Gusev also speaks of the need for additional refining capacities within Russia, emphasizing that while the implemented scheme is "functional," it leads to budgetary losses.
Lastly, it is worth recalling that importing fuel under such conditions may create an unpleasant precedent. Russian companies have always found it profitable to export crude oil. This is particularly true now, as oil refining enterprises are in a zone of potential risk. Importing finished fuels from other countries may become a "relaxing factor" for our companies, favoring further increases in crude oil exports at the expense of domestic refining capacities.
However, Frolov believes that strategically significant measures should not adversely affect Russian oil refining. The government always has the option to revoke the decision regarding the reverse excise tax.
Source: RG.RU
