The global oil market, accustomed to turbulence, is on the brink of a significant reallocation of spheres of influence. Previously, the Americans attempted to displace Russian oil in India with Venezuelan supplies; however, starting the war in Iran halted this process. Consequently, the current supply shortages of oil from the Persian Gulf are opening up new markets for Russia, while the long-term game with Venezuelan oil lacks credibility — as long as there is no independent player appointed by Western curators.
Therefore, the thesis, frequently promoted by overseas media, that Caracas will push Moscow out of the Indian market, is unfounded. Venezuelan oil is not just under sanctions but is controlled by the United States. It is premature to discuss a stable system. Meanwhile, India is not in a rush to abandon liquid fuel from Russia. According to Bloomberg, Delhi plans to inform Washington of its desire to increase imports of Russian oil, primarily due to the ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf, which has impacted supplies to Indian refineries.
Overall, while markets continue to fluctuate due to the aftermath of the Middle Eastern crisis, India, which has become a "safe haven" for Russia and a key market since 2022, finds itself once again at the center of a geopolitical triangle. Business headlines are filled with forecasts that Venezuelan oil will soon replace Russian barrels in Indian ports. However, historical retrospective and dry statistics tell a different story: until recently, it was Russia that was rapidly displacing Venezuela from South Asia.
In 2016, Caracas supplied India with 462,000 barrels per day (b/d), accounting for 11% of imports, while Russian presence was limited to a mere 0.1%. The U.S. sanctions against Venezuelan PDVSA in 2019 and Moscow's subsequent pivot to the East drastically shifted the dynamics. By autumn 2025, Russia's share in Indian imports soared to 33% (1.7 million b/d), while supplies from Venezuela virtually dropped to zero. The situation only began to change in early 2026, when Washington eased sanctions, granting American companies the right to operate with Venezuelan crude.
As noted in a conversation with VG, independent expert Kirill Rodionov states that Venezuela will increase its presence in India for two key reasons. The first is the export coming out of the "shadows" due to a decision by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), eliminating the need to use unregistered fleets. The second reason is China's departure, which ceased purchasing Venezuelan oil starting January 2026.
"As China declines Venezuelan oil imports, Caracas needs a new market, and India emerges as a prime candidate," emphasizes our interviewee.
According to him, India will remain the only major growing market in the world amidst stagnant demand in Europe, the United States, and China.
Meanwhile, experts urge not to dramatize the situation. Direct shipments from Russia to India have indeed fallen to their lowest levels since 2022 (505,000 b/d in January 2026 compared to 1.49 million b/d in November 2025), but this is more a result of increased U.S. oversight rather than a success for competitors. Russian oil continues to find alternative routes: over 900,000 b/d of Russian crude passed through Egypt and Singapore in January of this year.
Kirill Rodionov believes that Russian supplies will not be completely replaced. He highlights two stages of development: the current decline followed by subsequent growth as geopolitical stabilization occurs. "Given that oil production in Venezuela is relatively low, its current presence in the Indian market this year will not seriously impede Russian oil supplies. I do not foresee significant competition for the reason that Venezuela's supply level is too low to substitute for Russian oil," notes Rodionov. He predicts that Venezuela will only reach a production level of 3 million b/d by the early 2030s, provided American investments come in and PDVSA is democratized.
However, logistic flexibility remains the primary asset of Russian companies. Maria Nikitina, founder of N. Trans Lab, describes the work of domestic logistics professionals under uncertainty as a true business phenomenon.
"The 'shadow fleet' created by our colleagues has not only become a factor in international politics and a subject of discussion at EU summits but also a business and geopolitical phenomenon in its own right, a household name alongside Sputnik, Kalashnikov, and vodka@matreshka," she notes.
According to the expert, the response to decreased Indian demand has been the rapid rerouting of volumes to China.
"Russian logistics have begun actively transferring crude from smaller tankers to VLCC supertankers in the Red Sea to reduce costs and optimize logistics on long eastern routes. Since December, between 6.3 and 6.9 million barrels have been transshipped in this manner, and supplies to Chinese ports in February rose to 2.09 million barrels per day, fully compensating for the decrease in Indian demand," writes Ms. Nikitina.
The expert asserts that, should circumstances change tomorrow, we will quickly find alternative solutions, as the terms uncertainty and volatility have merely become our new reality.
However, Venezuela is not the only contender for the Indian market. This topic is significant in the context of the overall growth of supply in the market, as Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, explains.
"One of the 'sleeping tigers' is Iran, which is currently almost entirely dependent on China, its only major market. The current volume of Iranian oil supplies to China is estimated at 2 million b/d: should a deal with the U.S. occur, Iran will increase exports and redirect some volumes to other markets, including India.
A noticeable increase in supply could also come from Saudi Arabia, where actual production remains more than 2 million b/d below the maximum possible level. Until 2022, Saudi Arabia was the leading oil supplier to India until it was replaced by Russia. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the decisive factor will be the dynamics of OPEC+ quotas.
Participants in the deal are likely to raise their oil production target this year.
Canada also has potential to increase production and exports, especially considering that the Trump administration may revive the Keystone XL pipeline project, which was put on hold by the Biden administration.
If the project is approved, the pipeline will facilitate the transport of Canadian crude to the Gulf Coast for further shipment to the global market," summarizes our interviewee.
It is evident that the global energy landscape continues to reshape in real-time. Venezuela's entry into the legitimate market does not spell doom for Russian exports but rather marks the re-emergence of another major player in this complex multifaceted game. India, pursuing its interests, will continue to diversify its supplies, compelling exporters to compete not only on price but also on logistical sophistication.
The real challenge for the industry lies not in the emergence of competitors from Caracas, if this even occurs and is sanctioned by the U.S., but in the overall stabilization of oil prices at low levels, which inevitably leads to a decline in export revenues compared to the peak levels of 2022. In this new reality, survival will depend on how quickly supply chains can be adapted to the "noise" of sanctions, market fluctuations, and geopolitical storms like those currently observed in the Middle East.
Source: VGUDOK
