The attractiveness of Russian diesel fuel on the global market is increasing amid the Hormuz crisis. Exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk reached 1.4 million tons from March 1 to March 15, with 29 vessels arriving, according to data from the Price Index Center (PCI) reviewed by RBC. This volume is already nearly comparable to the total shipments from the same port for the entire month of February.
In the Primorsk port located in the Leningrad Region, fuel tanks were damaged due to an attack by Ukrainian drones, resulting in a fire, as reported by the governor of the region, Alexander Drozdenko, on March 23. According to news agency Reuters, the port was temporarily halting the loading of oil and oil products.
At the same time, in February, total diesel fuel exports from Russian ports showed a decline, amounting to 2.3 million tons, which is approximately 30% lower than in January. The main direction for supplies was Brazil, where Russia shipped 680 thousand tons of diesel fuel—4% less on a month-over-month basis. Exports to Turkey fell by 28%, totaling 400 thousand tons, while exports to African countries decreased by 46%, down to 531 thousand tons. Shipments to other destinations dropped by 19%, reaching 453 thousand tons.
Gasoline is being exported from Russia to far abroad, but the volumes are insignificant, as two industry sources informed RBC. Meanwhile, gasoline sales through the St. Petersburg Exchange plummeted in March: if at the beginning of the month the total daily sales volume exceeded 50 thousand tons, by March 20 it had decreased to 34 thousand tons.
Russia supplies petroleum products under intergovernmental agreements (primarily to EAEU countries and Mongolia) even during periods of export bans on gasoline and diesel fuel.
The Mongolian Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, Bégzsüren Gynkhuu, stated in March that the country would fully meet its fuel needs through imports from Russia, as China had banned the export of petroleum products due to the situation in the Hormuz Strait.
The Russian-Mongolian agreement signed in 2024 provides for the supply of 1.8 to 1.9 million tons of petroleum products and 60 thousand tons of jet fuel per year on mutually beneficial terms.
Will the Export Surge Impact the Domestic Market?
Experts surveyed believe that the growth in export revenues for Russian oil companies will lead to increased refining margins and reduce price pressures in the domestic market.
In 2025, oil companies were deprived of high export revenues for several reasons, forcing them to "top up" through price increases in the domestic market, notes independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov. The net profit of Russian petroleum producers fell by 16% last year, down to 2.26 trillion rubles. Additionally, oil companies received fewer budget payments under the fuel damping mechanism—882 billion rubles compared to 1.8 trillion rubles in 2024. All of this led to a decrease in the margins of oil refining.
2025 Crisis
Exchange prices for gasoline in Russia reached historic highs in the summer and fall of 2025. The retail prices also increased significantly. Heads of some regions complained of fuel shortages at local gas stations.
However, in mid-October, exchange quotes began to retreat from record levels. As explained by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to journalists, this occurred amid export restrictions and increased production after refineries resumed operations.
By the end of the year, the government allowed companies with production capacities exceeding 1 million tons of petroleum products per year to export diesel fuel abroad. At the end of January 2026, the export ban on gasoline was also lifted for oil companies. The allowance is valid until July 31.
"Now Russian oil companies have received a gift in the form of rising petroleum product prices globally, which will lead to increased refining margins," Rodionov believes. Therefore, the expert does not see any threat to the domestic market. Consequently, the government will not need to impose an export ban in the coming months, despite the seasonal increase in demand from agricultural producers.
According to the National Price Exchange Agency, ahead of the high consumption season, buyers exhibited heightened interest in summer diesel fuel, and its supply volume continues to grow since the end of February. This situation is typical for each year: in 2025, by mid-March, demand for summer diesel fuel reached 53.3% of sales volume.
The Russian fuel market is traditionally surplus, argues CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market Sergei Tereshkin. Until 2022, the ratio of exports to the domestic market was 50/50, and afterward became 40/60 in favor of the domestic market in Russia, partly due to increased demand for heavy machinery. However, the surplus remains, and it is logical to redirect it to foreign markets, especially now, when the reduction of raw material transit through the Hormuz Strait has led to rising global prices, he adds.
At the same time, the price of diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg Exchange has surged by 20% since the beginning of the month and, at the end of Monday's trading, reached 67,774 rubles per ton, which corresponds to the levels seen in mid-September 2025. Prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline have also risen more than 12% during this period, reaching 67,603 rubles and 71,398 rubles per ton, respectively.
Managing Partner of NEFT Research, Sergei Frolov, believes that this increase will be smoothed out by damping payments. If this does not help contain prices, the government will promptly resume the export ban. The analyst suggests that such a situation could occur as early as April.
The essence of the fuel damping mechanism lies in the government paying subsidies to refiners, motivating oil companies to supply more gasoline and diesel to the domestic market rather than for export. If selling fuel abroad is more profitable than selling domestically, authorities use the damping mechanism to compensate oil companies for the difference with exports, thereby stabilizing price dynamics. However, if domestic fuel prices exceed certain values, damping payments are nullified.
Tereshkin believes that there is no need to impose export restrictions on diesel fuel. Due to an existing surplus, its price increase is more moderate than that of gasoline. According to Rosstat, by March 16, the accumulated rise in retail diesel fuel prices since the end of last year amounted to 1.6%, while gasoline prices rose by 2.4% with an inflation rate of 2.6%.
From March 1 to March 23, 2026, gasoline sales at the St. Petersburg Exchange reached 691.21 thousand tons, which is 5.7% higher than in March 2025 and 16.8% more than in February of this year, as reported by RBC to the National Exchange Price Agency. Total diesel fuel sales in March amounted to 1.2 million tons, which is 11% higher than the figures for the same period last year and 5.1% more than in February 2026. Market participants in the second half of March indeed noted increased buyer interest in petroleum products. However, the key factor here is the seasonal component: the onset of spring fieldwork, the activation of road transport, as well as planned refinery repairs, the agency added.
RBC has requested a comment from the press service of the Ministry of Energy.
Source: RBC
