The heating season in Europe has just begun, yet storage supplies are being depleted at record rates. The current levels are typically seen at the end of December. What drives Europeans to consume gas reserves so quickly this winter, and what are the potential risks involved?
European countries have been withdrawing gas from their underground storage facilities (UGS) at unprecedented rates. From November 15 to 30, they extracted 7.7 billion cubic meters, exceeding November 2024 figures by 5% for the same period, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Early in the month, the withdrawals were lower.
November's extraction rates are ahead of the typical consumption pace by about a month. In other words, the current storage levels in the EU usually reach this point by the end of December (based on the last five years' average), TASS reports.
"Real winter cold has yet to hit Europe. Several months of winter weather lie ahead. Technically, the reduction of reserves in storage facilities diminishes their efficiency. In the event of severe or prolonged cold, inadequate gas supplies in UGS could jeopardize the reliable gas supply for European consumers," say experts from Gazprom.
There are several reasons why Europeans feel compelled to withdraw more gas from storage at the outset of this heating season than they did in 2024.
"First and foremost, many European companies are currently trying to sell gas from underground storage, fearing that prices could drop even further. They purchased and injected this gas at higher prices earlier, and they now dread incurring even greater losses,"
– says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (FNEB). Exchange prices for gas in Europe fell to a year-and-a-half low of $335 per thousand cubic meters on December 2.
Secondly, the EU is receiving less pipeline gas than last year because supplies of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine have decreased by 15-16 billion cubic meters. "Therefore, even with previous LNG volumes, Europeans would still be extracting more gas from underground storage. The volumes that were previously arriving daily via transit from Russia through Ukraine are now being compensated by gas from storage facilities," explains the FNEB expert.
Additionally, the EU has lost over 1 million tons of LNG annually, which was previously delivered to the European market from two Russian projects – "Kriogaz Vysotsk" and "Gazprom LNG Portovaya." These supplies have now been halted due to U.S. sanctions.
A third factor is that Europeans now have a necessity to "feed" Ukraine with their own gas. "Previously, Ukraine purchased virtual reverse gas, essentially transit Russian gas, but now it is physically taking natural gas from Europeans. Apparently, Ukraine has also experienced a decline in its own production due to Russian strikes, hence it now needs to purchase even more from Europe. Ukraine is heavily dependent on European support, which is now required to supply not only its own market but also the Ukrainian one," states Igor Yushkov.
The fourth distinction of the current year compared to last is that gas consumption in Europe has slightly increased in 2025. "Gas consumption in the EU has begun to recover after falling in 2022-2023 due to extremely high prices. This was facilitated by the fact that gas prices have remained relatively affordable, around $400 per thousand cubic meters," Yushkov continues.
Nevertheless, the cold weather, according to the expert, is not yet the main reason for the increased extraction of gas from UGS compared to last year.
What are the dangers of a faster gas withdrawal from underground storage? The risk is that there may be critically low gas levels left by the end of the year.
"The most extreme scenario would occur if severe frost hits at the end of the heating season. Should cold weather strike in February and March with low gas reserves in storage, daily withdrawals will become increasingly challenging.
This could result in a gas deficit, which would need to be covered solely by current imports. This means Europe will have to compete with Asian markets for LNG volumes. As a result, gas prices will rise, creating a negative impact on the European economy," explains Yushkov.
Overall, there has been a noted increase in the share of LNG within the gas import structure of the European Union throughout the year. "The share of LNG in EU gas imports rose from 37% to 45%. If the EU imported 297 million cubic meters of LNG per day during the first nine months of 2024, that figure increased to 376 million cubic meters in the same period of 2025," says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
However, once the heating season arrives, demand surges dramatically— not only in Europe but also in Asia. Asian buyers are redirecting significant LNG volumes for themselves through pricing incentives.
The colder it gets in Asia and Europe, the more both regions will compete for limited LNG supplies, driving up prices," concludes Yushkov.
Source: VZGLYAD
