Reports of gasoline shortages and long lines at gas stations have been coming from parts of the southern and central regions of the European part of Russia, including Moscow and its region, as well as some southern areas of Siberia and the Far East.
At a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on August 14, it was noted that the situation in the fuel market remains tense, although major oil companies are taking all necessary measures to increase supplies to the most vulnerable regions of the Russian Federation. It was also emphasized that agricultural enterprises are sufficiently supplied with fuel, and the harvest campaign is proceeding as planned.
Following the meeting, Novak instructed relevant agencies and oil companies to take additional measures to ensure fuel supplies in the regions currently experiencing tension. Additionally, he tasked them with monitoring fuel prices for agricultural producers and gas stations.Agricultural machinery primarily operates on diesel fuel (DF). Its supply to the market normalized in the second half of July, and no shortages are currently reported. The fact is that historically, diesel fuel is produced in Russia in significantly larger quantities than gasoline. According to the latest official data, in 2024, 41.1 million tons of gasoline and 81.6 million tons of diesel were produced. This is related to the fact that previously, a large volume of diesel (almost half) was exported to Europe, while very little gasoline was sent abroad (10-15% of production).
Therefore, the shutdown of oil refineries (ORFs) due to damage from drone attacks has critically impacted gasoline supply. It is no coincidence that its export has been completely banned since April, and almost all produced volumes are directed to the domestic market (with the exception of batches sent under intergovernmental agreements). However, this is clearly not sufficient. Although, perhaps, the issue is not only about physical shortages.
One of the main factors affecting fuel supply reliability remains logistics. Due to unscheduled repairs at ORFs, many gas stations had to abruptly change suppliers, leading to disruptions and delays in shipments. The infrastructure is limited—transporting and unloading more fuel than the capacity of, for example, the railway system allows is impossible.
Furthermore, as noted in a conversation with "RG" by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, even before the ORFs went for unscheduled repairs, the ban on gasoline export had effectively become permanent.
This means that even before this year, the balance of supply and demand for gasoline in the domestic market was close to zero. The gradual, albeit slow, renewal of the vehicle fleet could have led to increased demand for AI-95 gasoline after 2022, while sanctions on supplying equipment for Russian ORFs hampered the expansion of refining capacities.
According to Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, it cannot be said that there is an all-Russian fuel crisis; rather, it concerns localized shortages in specific regions. The main reasons are planned and unscheduled repairs at Russian ORFs. Government measures are effective, but they cannot completely eliminate the primary cause of oil product shortages—the reduction in production.
To prevent fuel shortages, the government has allowed imports since July. Belarus has become the main supplier. According to Reuters, in July, Russia received 212,000 tons of gasoline and 162,000 tons of diesel from there. However, the capacities of the two Belarusian ORFs are not limitless. In fact, considering domestic consumption, an export of more than 200,000 tons of gasoline to Russia per month is close to their maximum capabilities. Moreover, logistics remains a factor—fuel is delivered to Russia by rail. Importing gasoline by sea is very expensive and time-consuming, with the first shipment from India to Russia taking 48 days.
Tereshkin believes that the market is unlikely to witness the record price increases seen in June in September and October, as supply chain participants gradually adapt to the risks of shortages. However, he asserts that the absolute level of prices will still exceed pre-crisis levels.
Regarding the availability of fuel at gas stations, by the end of August, additional supplies of lower Euro-5 class fuel, which have been permitted for sale since August 13, should reach retail. These are expected to ease market tensions. However, Frolov emphasizes that even the production of gasoline of a lower environmental class cannot fully compensate for the lost volumes and resolve the logistical issues related to delivering fuel to specific areas.
At the same time, Tereshkin notes that, unfortunately, it is currently impossible to rule out the possibility of new technological downtimes at ORFs. Aside from capacity losses due to force majeure events, planned repairs will also affect fuel availability.
According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner" and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, there is a general understanding that the market needs to be restructured. The transition to direct contracts between suppliers and buyers has already begun, along with a reduction in the number of intermediary sellers—traders. The situation is expected to normalize once it becomes clear how the fuel market should operate in our country. This is likely to happen by October, the expert predicts.
From Frolov's perspective, the situation can only be fully stabilized with the coming back online of ORF capacities sufficient to meet current demand.
Source: RG.RU
