The federal budget received 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenues (OGR) in January, falling short by 17.4 billion rubles from the planned amount, according to a statement published on the Finance Ministry's website on February 4. Compared to January of last year, the figure has dropped by half (when OGR amounted to 789.1 billion rubles), and relative to December 2025, it has decreased by 12.1% (from 447.8 billion rubles). Furthermore, January's oil and gas revenues marked the lowest result in the past five and a half years, last seen at a lower figure in July 2020 (340 billion rubles). In February, the ministry expects an additional decline in OGR by 209.4 billion rubles. From February 6 to March 5, the Finance Ministry plans to sell foreign currency and gold for a total of 226.8 billion rubles (11.9 billion rubles daily), as per the statement.
In January, the average monthly price of Urals crude oil, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, was $40.95 per barrel. Throughout last year, the price consistently declined, dropping from $67.66 per barrel in January to $39.1 per barrel in December. A slight increase was recorded by the ministry in June and July ($59.84 per barrel and $60.37 per barrel respectively), but the negative trend resumed thereafter. According to the September forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual price of Urals crude oil is expected to be $59 per barrel this year.
However, experts believe that the ministry's expectations may be somewhat optimistic, as reported by Vedomosti on February 2. The average annual price of Urals crude oil might hover around $50 per barrel due to persistently low global prices (specifically, with the average annual price of Brent crude at about $60–63 per barrel) accompanied by a decrease in discounts on the price of Russian export crude to levels seen in early 2025, between $8–10, according to analysts from ACRA in their macroeconomic forecast. Consequently, the federal budget could potentially miss out on 0.5–0.7% of GDP in revenues compared to the current plan, with the budget deficit estimated to be between 2.2% and 2.7% of GDP (the Finance Ministry's plan for this year estimates a deficit of 1.6% of GDP). The latest macroeconomic survey conducted by the Bank of Russia corroborates ACRA's conclusions, as respondents expect the average annual price of Urals crude oil to be around $50 per barrel (down from $54 per barrel in December).
Starting this year, the budgetary rule's cut-off price for oil will begin to decrease systematically by $1 annually, reaching $55 per barrel by 2030. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov noted in September that the previously effective threshold of $60 per barrel no longer "meets the challenges of the time." According to the budgetary rule, additional revenues accrued from exceeding the established oil price threshold are directed towards the purchase of foreign currency and gold for future accumulation in the National Wealth Fund (NWF). Conversely, if revenues fall short of expectations, sales are conducted to cover the missing amounts.
Vedomosti has sent an inquiry to a representative of the Finance Ministry.
The ongoing decrease in the share of oil and gas revenues reflects deeper structural changes in the country's economy and budget system, notes Elena Lebedinskaya, the Director of the Income Department at the Finance Ministry, in comments published by the ministry's press service on February 4. "As a result, the federal budget is becoming less sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices than it was 10 years ago, which enhances its resilience amid external instability," she concluded. According to the federal budget law for 2026–2028, OGR is expected to be 8.9 trillion rubles this year (or 22% of all planned budget revenues).
Reasons for the Decline
The dynamics of oil prices play a decisive role in OGR, which depends on international benchmarks and discounts applied to the price of Russian oil, reminds Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. At the end of last year, the Urals discount to Brent exceeded $20 per barrel, which contributed to January's figures being the lowest in the past five and a half years. The primary factor driving the discount up is the tightening of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, which has increased risks for importers of Russian oil, the expert states.
However, the market tends to acclimatize to new waves of restrictions over time, Tereshkin asserts. For instance, in early 2023, soon after the EU embargo on imports of Russian oil took effect, the discount in the price of Urals compared to Brent exceeded $25 per barrel, but later gradually returned to a range of $10–12 per barrel. The expert believes that a similar scenario will unfold this year, provided that the U.S. does not impose additional restrictions. In general, the year 2026 may prove even more challenging for oil and gas revenues than the previous year, according to Tereshkin. High discounts could potentially be offset by increasing domestic oil production and its exports, but OPEC+ is unlikely to take drastic measures while Brent prices are close to $60 per barrel, he argues.
Declining oil prices and substantial discounts for Urals crude oil, reaching around $25 per barrel, are adversely affecting the financial performance of Russian oil companies, agrees investment strategist Sergey Suverov from Arikapital Asset Management. Smaller companies with high extraction and export costs are particularly struggling, the expert notes. Larger companies with lower production costs are weathering the "perfect storm" more easily, he points out. The situation regarding oil and gas revenues is expected to improve slightly in February, according to Suverov. Brent prices have risen to $70 per barrel, and the ruble may soon begin to decline, he clarifies. According to Rosstat data for the first ten months of last year, the share of loss-making organizations among oil and gas companies has slightly decreased to 47.5%, down from 48.1% for the January-September period.
Multiple factors simultaneously influence oil and gas revenues: widening spreads, unstable oil and gas export flows (demand from major buyers can be forecasted only in terms of China), attacks on shipping, and a negative long-term market outlook for commodities amid an extremely strong ruble, states Pavel Ryabov, economist and author of the Telegram channel Spydell Finance.
Under the current circumstances, oil and gas revenues are expected to reach no more than 6 trillion rubles by year-end, against a forecast of 9 trillion rubles, with the strongest blow stemming from the over-strong ruble.
Source:
Vedomosti
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