A government-imposed ban on jet fuel exports, the first of its kind, will shield the market from unplanned spikes in fuel costs. The embargo will remain in effect until the end of November. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, the decision aims to ensure stability on the domestic market. Experts believe this will bring an additional approximately 2 million tonnes of fuel to the market, but will not lead to a reduction in airfare prices. At the same time, the measure is expected to cool wholesale exchange prices, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price surge, thereby preventing tickets from becoming more expensive at an accelerated pace.
Temporary Ban on Jet Fuel Exports
The government has imposed a temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene for the first time, effective until November 30, 2026. The decision is aimed at ensuring a stable situation on the domestic fuel market, the Cabinet's press service reported.
"The government continues its efforts to maintain a reliable and uninterrupted supply of fuel to the domestic market. A new resolution introduces a temporary ban on the export of jet fuel from Russia, including fuel purchased at exchange trading. The restriction will be in effect until November 30, 2026, inclusive," the statement reads.
Exceptions will be made for batches of aviation kerosene that were placed under customs procedures before the resolution came into force, deliveries under intergovernmental agreements, and fuel in technological tanks used by aircraft in transit, the Cabinet noted.
Russia also currently has a ban on gasoline exports for all market participants until July 31, 2026. Until the same date, restrictions on the export of diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other types of gas oils remain in place for non-producers.
There are no official data on the volumes of production and consumption of aviation kerosene in Russia. Izvestia has sent a request to the Ministry of Energy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Russian aviation kerosene market amounted to 10.01 million tonnes per year in 2024, with production at 11.6 million tonnes. The surplus was exported.
According to Transport Minister Andrei Nikitin, there is currently no shortage of aviation kerosene in Russia.
"At the moment, there is no shortage. In any case, under any circumstances, we act in the interests of our airlines," he stated.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, traditional consumers of Russian-produced aviation kerosene include Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.
"Export supplies outside the EAEU are gradually shrinking amid growing domestic demand. For example, in April 2026, no aviation kerosene was shipped by sea," she noted.
Earlier, media reports indicated that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had ordered further measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market. These included consultations with Belarus to increase gasoline supplies to Russia and discussions on potentially increasing import damping payments, including for Belarusian fuel, with corresponding amendments to the Russian Tax Code retroactively from June 1, 2026.
However, an Izvestia source in the industry could not confirm this information. According to this source, Minsk is already supplying fuel to the Russian market, produced from Russian crude oil.
"Moreover, Russia pays a damping mechanism to Belarusian producers," the source noted.
Another Izvestia industry source believes that the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to agree to an increase in damping payments.
"Last month, 207 billion rubles were paid out under the fuel damping mechanism, compared to 15 billion rubles paid by oil companies in March," the source stated.
According to the National Exchange Pricing Agency, between May 1 and May 22, 17.34 thousand tonnes of gasoline from Belarusian refineries were sold on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. This is 58 times more than in the same period in 2025.
The two Belarusian refineries—Mozyr and Novopolotsk—produce 3–3.5 million tonnes of gasoline per year, while domestic consumption is up to 1.2 million tonnes per year.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner at VMT Consulting, Russia produces over 40 million tonnes of gasoline annually, while consumption is around 38–39 million tonnes per year.
Why the Cabinet Imposed the Jet Fuel Export Ban
Last week, as reported by Izvestia citing industry sources, the government discussed imposing a ban on the export of both diesel and aviation fuel. According to the sources, this issue was raised at a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Middle East conflict, demand and competition for Russian energy resources have sharply increased, experts noted. They described a fuel export ban as highly relevant given the overall situation on the global oil market. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices make the petroleum product market extremely attractive and profitable, creating a temptation for Russian oil companies to increase their fuel supplies to foreign markets.
"To prevent this temptation from being realized, the government is introducing the embargo, or at least considering such a possibility," noted Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Experts were inclined to believe that if an export ban were imposed, it would be specifically on aviation kerosene, as diesel fuel production in Russia is more surplus.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner at VMT Consulting, Russia produces approximately 80 million tonnes of diesel per year, consuming only half of that volume. Regarding aviation kerosene, production is about 11–12 million tonnes, with consumption around 10 million tonnes.
"Thus, the market will receive an additional 2 million tonnes of aviation fuel," emphasized Ekaterina Kosareva.
According to open-source data, 2 million tonnes of aviation kerosene is enough for 18,000–26,000 full refuels of long-haul aircraft or 66,000–133,000 refuels of narrow-body (medium-haul) passenger aircraft. Russian civil aviation operates between 2,100 and 2,300 flights daily; therefore, this volume is sufficient for approximately two to three months of operations for the entire country.
According to Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the industry agency AviaPort, considering 2 million tonnes as the volume that cannot be exported due to the ban does not automatically mean an increase in domestic consumption.
"According to statements from the Ministry of Transport and industry representatives, no fuel shortage is expected; however, there are no grounds to predict a significant increase in domestic passenger traffic by the end of the year. Consequently, there are no prerequisites for a substantial increase in fuel demand," he noted.
Nevertheless, having reserves is a factor of strategic stability and is necessary, the expert believes. It also remains unclear whether the expert estimate of 2 million tonnes accounts for the fact that fuel supplies to foreign markets may continue under intergovernmental agreements.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner," believes that systematic work is required, including damping mechanisms for airlines.
"First and foremost, reserves should be built up, and secondly, price risks should be hedged to eliminate potential kerosene shortages in certain periods. In this context, closing aviation fuel exports is a preventive measure aimed at saturating the domestic market," the expert noted.
However, he believes that, overall, economic entities are expected to demonstrate greater independence—they should understand that to increase aviation fuel consumption, they need to make purchases and hedge risks in advance, rather than shifting these tasks to the Ministry of Energy and the government.
According to Valery Andrianov, in recent years, Russia has seen a surplus of aviation kerosene, meaning production (about 11.6 million tonnes per year) exceeded domestic consumption (around 8.5–9 million tonnes).
"At the same time, consumption is highly uneven, increasing in June–August during the summer holiday season. Accordingly, 2–2.5 million tonnes were exported annually. The main destinations were Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan—as well as Turkey, the Middle East, and Asia," the analyst noted.
Izvestia has sent requests to all major Russian oil companies and airlines.
Impact of the Cabinet's Decision on the Market
According to the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the price of aviation fuel on over-the-counter trades has risen by 7.14% since the beginning of May—from 78,991 rubles per tonne on May 1 to 84,634 rubles on May 31. As of May 25, one tonne of aviation kerosene cost 96,776 rubles.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the excise tax on aviation kerosene has remained unchanged for nearly 10 years: since 2017, the rate has been 2,800 rubles per tonne. For comparison, the excise on Class 5 gasoline increased from 10,130 rubles per tonne in 2017 to 17,959 rubles per tonne in 2026, and the excise on diesel fuel rose from 6,800 rubles to 12,738 rubles, respectively.
"The fixed excise tax should have a stabilizing effect on the cost of aviation kerosene. However, in practice, exchange prices have risen from 80,000 rubles to almost 100,000 rubles per tonne over the past two months. The export ban may slow the price increase, but prices are unlikely to return to previous levels any time soon," the expert emphasized.
According to Valery Andrianov, the export ban will insure against risks of aviation kerosene shortages in the country. Halting exports will allow reserves to be built up ahead of the peak summer season, the Izvestia source believes.
An industry source told Izvestia that the share of fuel in the price of an air ticket is not fixed, "fluctuating significantly depending on the price of kerosene."
According to this source, it is "approximately 25–30% of the ticket price but can be lower when prices fall and higher when they rise sharply."
"As for ticket prices, the embargo on aviation kerosene exports will not lead to cheaper tickets. This is because other factors are putting pressure on costs: higher aircraft maintenance and repair costs under sanctions, a shortage of spare parts, and general inflation. However, the embargo will prevent a sharp price increase that could occur in the event of an acute kerosene shortage on the domestic market," said Valery Andrianov.
In his opinion, the export ban is likely to cool wholesale prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price jump. Consequently, tickets will not become more expensive at an accelerated pace. Meanwhile, domestic consumption will not increase in physical volumes, but the market will be guaranteed protection against shortages.
Source: Izvestia
