If Europe cannot replace at least half of the jet fuel it lost due to the Middle Eastern conflict, it will face a physical fuel shortage by June, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report. According to Euronews, due to fuel disruptions, airlines including Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa canceled 13,000 flights in May, resulting in a decrease from 132 million to 130 million passengers (-1.5%).
Before the conflict, Gulf nations exported approximately 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) of aviation fuel (kerosene), accounting for 20% of global imports, which the IEA estimated at 2 million b/d in 2025, and 5% of global consumption at 7.8 million b/d. Europe was the main recipient of this fuel, receiving 375,000 b/d of kerosene, which covered about 75% of regional demand. The agency estimates that consumption in Europe is around 1.6 million b/d, with domestic production at 1.1 million b/d and imports at 500,000 b/d.
No Flights - No Fuel
In mid-May, representatives from European airlines and oil refineries informed the Financial Times that they hoped to avert a jet fuel shortage this summer through a significant increase in imports and production in the region. "Real concerns were about a month or two ago," said Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary. "However, increased supplies from the U.S., West Africa, and Norway, combined with some airlines in Central Europe sourcing fuel from Russia, means that supplies on the continent will be fine." The publication notes that major European airlines such as British Airways and Air France do not anticipate shortages in the coming months.
Following the publication of the IEA's April review, Europe managed to secure supplies from other countries to replace Middle Eastern fuel, suggesting that the worst-case scenario may be deferred, says Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. However, the risk of a shortage remains, he warns.
Acknowledging that the crisis regarding aviation fuel supplies to Europe is more postponed than prevented, analysts at S&P Global concur. The reduction in the deficit in recent weeks has been primarily driven by decreased demand due to flight cancellations rather than a fundamental improvement in supply, they note. Supplies from the U.S. have replaced about half of the volumes that came through the Strait of Hormuz to Europe, but as the driving season approaches, U.S. refineries may reduce kerosene production in favor of gasoline.
The U.S. is not a guaranteed and inexhaustible source of replacement for Middle Eastern supplies, argues independent financial expert Kirill Kuchinski. American exports of jet fuel to Europe rose to 107,000 b/d in the first half of Q2 2026, which is a 386% increase from 22,000 b/d in the same period last year. However, even this increase does not compensate for the lost Middle Eastern volumes, and the risk of a shortage in Europe remains, Kuchinski states. U.S. refineries are currently shifting some capacity to jet fuel, which is reflected in the accelerated depletion of commercial oil reserves. However, this summer, greater gasoline demand for the domestic market may significantly cut jet fuel production, the expert explains.
The European Commission also believes that the risk of a shortage remains. On May 28, it released a statement indicating that while there is an observed increase in fuel prices in the EU, there are no supply disruptions. Still, if the Middle Eastern conflict drags on for several more weeks, the situation in the fuel market, primarily aviation fuel, may worsen.
By mid-April, the EU had replaced only about half of the lost imports, and several countries in the bloc reported stocks falling to six-week coverage levels, indicates Kuchinski.
The market situation is impacting fuel costs. According to Chernov from Freedom Finance Global, who refers to statistics from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which calculates average global prices weekly, the price of jet fuel, which was $99.4 per barrel from February 20 to 27—the day before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran—had increased by 110% to $209 per barrel by the week ending April 3. For the week ending May 22, prices have dropped from the peaks of early April by 23% to $159.85 per barrel, though they remain 61% above the end of February levels.
In the cost structure of flights, the price of jet fuel pre-war in the Gulf accounted for 30% to 40%, reminds Alexander Lanetsky, director of the consulting company Friendly Avia Support. "Now its share has surged to about 50% and even more—up to 60%. However, raising ticket prices to that extent is not feasible, and airlines are mitigating this impact by introducing fuel surcharges. Overall, the blow has been very significant," the expert states.
Russia is Not Flying, But Fuel Prices are Rising
The rise in fuel prices has not bypassed the Russian market, notes Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the fuel products marketplace Open Oil Market. This is reflected in the dynamics of the jet fuel price index calculated by the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPbMTSB), based on the cost of supplies to the fuel supply complexes of the Moscow aviation hub. The average price of jet fuel has risen by 21.5% from 80,000 rubles per ton (approximately $88 per barrel) to 97,263 rubles per ton (about $107 per barrel) from the start of March to May 29.
Rosstat does not publish data on fuel production in the country. According to the latest industry estimates available in open sources, jet fuel production in 2024 is projected to grow by 7.3% to 11.6 million tons (approximately 250,000 b/d), says Chernov. The export situation is also opaque, as customs statistics have been closed since 2022. Available estimates in open sources indicate 500,000–600,000 tons per year
(11,000–13,000 b/d), while intergovernmental quotas for 2025 specifically mentioned deliveries of 300,000 tons (6,500 b/d) of jet fuel from Russia to Kazakhstan, Chernov notes.
Due to the conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russian carriers have lost many flights; several routes have been taken over by airlines from other countries, says Alexander Lanetsky, director of the consulting company Friendly Avia Support. "There is no jet fuel deficit in the Russian market," he states. "Only discussions about a deficit, which are driving prices up for the benefit of brokerage firms." In Russia, according to Lanetsky, Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries may create fuel production issues.
On June 1, the Russian government announced the introduction of a temporary ban on the export of jet kerosene, indicating that the respective decree will be published. The press office statement indicated that the embargo will be in effect until November 30, 2026, effective from June 1. "The goal of the decision is to ensure stability in the domestic fuel market," the statement says. It also specifies that exceptions will be made for fuel that fuels airliners, as well as batches whose customs clearance began before the ban took effect and for supplies under intergovernmental agreements.
For Russia, the export ban may serve as a protective measure to prevent fuel from being withdrawn from the domestic market and creating shortages, believes Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. The drone attacks on Russian refineries limit oil processing, so the export ban on kerosene appears logical, agrees independent financial expert Kuchinski.
Source: Forbes
