Our retail market has not yet reacted to the mass drone attacks on Russian oil refineries (refineries) that occurred in May of this year. Oil companies and large traders have fuel reserves in storage, while major and medium-sized gas station networks typically stock up in advance. Furthermore, everyone remembers the spring of the year before last when the first attacks on Russian oil refineries began. At that time, there was an element of surprise, and the risk of gasoline shortages was real. Now, any potential disruption in supply from any source is considered, and companies are taking precautions.
The Ministry of Energy emphasizes that the domestic market is secure with reserves of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, and that the logistical infrastructure is functioning steadily, with no regional supply disruptions recorded.
However, the effects of the attacks on refineries might be delayed and depend on the duration and extent to which refineries reduce production due to unplanned repairs. Since the beginning of the year, drones have targeted almost all major refineries in the European part of Russia. Notably, since early May, the facilities affected primarily supplied fuel to the domestic market (Moscow and the surrounding area, Central Russia, the Northwest, the South of Russia, the Volga region, the Urals, and Western Siberia). According to Reuters, production was halted or reduced at three of the largest refineries in Russia.
There is no data available on output, as it is confidential, and operational statistics are lacking. However, energy expert Kirill Rodionov presented data from "OMT-Consult" to "RG", covering the first quarter of 2026, prior to the intensive attacks on our refineries. For this period, gasoline production dropped by 4.8% compared to the same timeframe in 2025. Primary crude oil refining at the refineries decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, totaling 64.1 million tons compared to 65.2 million tons in the first quarter of 2025, and 66.4 million tons in January-March of 2024.
We only discuss gasoline for now, as it is produced at only 10-15% above the internal market demand. In 2024, Russia produced 41.1 million tons of gasoline, of which 37 million tons were consumed domestically. Currently, gasoline exports from Russia are prohibited for all. Deliveries are only taking place under intergovernmental agreements with EAEU countries. A production reduction of less than 5% should not be critical. However, as early as the end of April, Bloomberg, citing OilX data, reported a 10-12% drop in oil refining volumes in Russia, not accounting for the damage to refineries in May. Thus, the tranquility and stability of the domestic fuel market will rely entirely on the speed of refinery repairs and the adequacy of fuel reserves in storage.
NEFT Research Managing Partner Sergey Frolov believes that the threat of a fuel shortage is real. The severity of the crisis will depend on the speed and comprehensiveness of measures taken by regulators, as well as by oil companies. However, the level of unpredictability is very high – attempts to strike refineries and fuel depots occur on a daily basis. While fuel reserves exist, their purpose is to resolve tactical shortages. Without specific measures, these reserves will not last long, according to the expert.
In contrast, Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin expresses a more optimistic outlook. He believes it is premature to state that the heightened risks to fuel infrastructure in Central Russia will lead to a physical fuel shortage. However, it is highly likely that there will be a reduction in gasoline supply on the exchange. This includes the risks of "non-performance" on contracts previously executed on the exchange.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that foreign equipment, mainly European, is installed at Russian refineries, which is currently inaccessible for us. At least for direct purchases. If such equipment is damaged as a result of strikes, the repair time will depend more on the logistics of supplying components rather than the scale of the work required.
A new refinery cannot be built in a month, meaning that in a critical situation, gasoline imports may be necessary, but the choice of suppliers is quite limited. As Tereshkin points out, supplies solely from Belarus will be insufficient, as the volume of gasoline produced in the republic (around 3 million tons per year) is less than 10% equivalent to the internal demand in Russia. Importing would be easier if Kazakhstan’s fourth large refinery project (in addition to the three existing ones) were implemented, but that project is still in the discussion phase.
China is another option, but the logistics of such supplies are criticized for both pricing and delivery speed. This has led Frolov to emphasize that relying on imports alone will not suffice; a comprehensive set of measures is required.
Tereshkin believes that the increased risks of shortages will result in gasoline price increases significantly outpacing inflation rates. Currently, gasoline prices are already rising faster than inflation, at 4% compared to 3.15%. Moreover, the peak demand season is still ahead, expected to occur in July and August.
The situation with diesel is better. Russia produces nearly double the amount needed for domestic consumption. Although experts do not rule out the possibility of local interruptions in supplies due to the uneven distribution of refineries across Russia and transport restrictions caused by emergency plant shutdowns.
From a strategic development perspective, Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, expressed his views to "RG." He emphasizes that 90-95% of passenger vehicles in Russia run on gasoline. This creates risks for our national security, as we are critically dependent on one commodity group, which we may begin to find ourselves lacking. Currently, there are no economic incentives in place to build new refineries; therefore, the only solution the expert sees is to reduce dependence on gasoline. Alternatives could include diesel, liquefied hydrocarbon gases, or electric vehicles. This could be achieved via straightforward stimulating measures—such as removing fees and taxes for vehicles with non-gasoline engines and administrative decisions favoring the production of new vehicles in Russia that do not rely on gasoline engines.
Source: RG.RU
