In the summer, the increase in fuel prices will outpace the overall inflation rate – expert

/ /
Fuel Prices to Outpace Inflation by Summer 2024 - Expert Opinion
04.07.2024
19
The latest monthly data from Rosstat recorded the return of gasoline prices within the inflation boundaries. The annual increase in gasoline prices as of May 2024 was 8.0%, while inflation reached 8.2%. However, by the end of June, an acceleration in the annual growth rate of retail fuel prices is likely to be recorded.

This is evidenced by weekly data from Rosstat: while gasoline prices rose by 0.1% in the week ending May 20, 2024, they increased by 0.3% in the week ending June 3, 2024, and by 0.4% in the week ending June 24, 2024. One of the drivers could have been the suspension of the gasoline export ban, which was implemented on May 17, 2024, coinciding with a temporary reduction in fuel production. According to Rosstat, the production of automotive gasoline in Russia during the week of May 13-19, 2024, decreased by 18% compared to the most recent peak recorded in the week of February 19-25 (106 thousand vs. 129 thousand tons per day). For comparison, gasoline shipments from Russian refineries to the domestic market in the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 104 thousand tons per day, according to CDU TEK data.

Another factor in the price increase is the recovery of the Russian automotive market, which has returned to pre-crisis levels. In May 2022, sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia were 24.3 thousand units, whereas in May 2024, they amounted to 127.2 thousand units, which is more than in May 2021 (147.4 thousand, according to the Autostat agency). The overall recovery of the automotive market coincides with the seasonal increase in demand, one of the indicators of which is the reduction in fuel exports. According to S&P Global Platts, maritime fuel exports from Russia decreased by 480 thousand barrels per day (bpd) from February to May 2024, down to 2.13 million bpd.

Another factor in the price rise is the increasing costs for Russian refineries. According to Rosstat, the balance of profits and losses for Russian oil product producers decreased by 15.4% (to 1,202.1 billion rubles) in the first four months of 2024. The share of unprofitable companies in oil product production increased from 25% in January-April 2023 to 27% in January-April 2024. The rising costs at refineries will contribute to higher wholesale and retail prices.

As a result, the data for June 2024 will show an acceleration in the annual growth rates of retail gasoline prices, which will likely exceed inflation boundaries.


Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET.
#inflation trends #fuel prices #Russian economy #oil market #fuel market in Russia #economic analysis #fuel price increase #energy market #Russian petrol prices #market expert opinions #summer fuel price growth #automotive market recovery #energy crisis
Previous entry
Next entry
Leave a comment:
Message text*
Drag files here
No entries have been found.
You might be interested
An expert explained which fuel is 30-50 percent cheaper than gasoline.
In Russia, gas engine fuel (GEF) is 30-50% cheaper than A-92 gasoline, yet its use remains limited. Expert Sergey Tereshkin noted that the share of GEF in the country's vehicle fleet is small, and the growth in consumption depends on subsidies and infrastructure support. The article discusses the prospects for increasing the use of gas engine fuel, as well as the challenges and opportunities for the development of this niche.
Read More
Europe may completely lose Russian gas.

The complete cessation of Russian gas supplies to the EU is becoming a real threat. Commentary by Sergey Tereshkin for the newspaper "Vzglyad."
"Europe may completely lose Russian gas" — an article by Sergey Tereshkin discussing the potential termination of gas supplies from Russia to Europe. The author analyzes the causes, consequences, and prospects of the energy crisis in the region.
Read More
Why is Russia lifting the ban on gasoline exports for only two months?
The export of gasoline from Russia may be allowed for two months, from December 1 of this year until January 31, 2025. This information is provided by the newspaper "Kommersant," citing sources. Experts interviewed by "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" believe that this period for allowing exports is the most optimal and will not harm the domestic market. Comment from Sergey Tereshkin for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta."
Read More
The lifting of the ban on gasoline exports will not lead to an increase in gas station prices.
The government only managed to announce the possible lifting of the ban on gasoline exports from Russia, and within ten days, the stock prices of AI-92 rose by almost 5%, and AI-95 by 7%. Naturally, concerns arose that the resumption of gasoline exports would accelerate its price increase, including at the retail level, where prices continue to rise this year, despite the traditions, at the end of the year, after the high-demand period has passed. A comment by Sergey Tereshkin for Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
Read More
An expert predicted the dynamics of gasoline prices in Russia until the end of 2024.
Sergey Tereshkin: The rate of gasoline price growth in Russia by the end of the year will be lower than in the summer (Prime news agency).
An expert has forecasted the dynamics of gasoline prices in Russia through the end of 2024. An article published on the website Sergeytereshkin.ru analyzes the key factors influencing fuel costs. These include the situation in the global oil market, domestic price regulation policies, and seasonal fluctuations in demand. The specialist noted that sharp price spikes are unlikely, although certain growth trends are possible.
Read More
Novak allowed the lifting of the ban on the export of AI-92 gasoline
The Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has suggested a partial lifting of the ban on gasoline exports in case signs of oversupply are confirmed. This concerns only the AI-92 grade. The ban on the export of any gasoline is currently in effect until the end of the year. Comment by Sergey Tereshkin for RBC.
Read More
Russians were informed about when diesel prices in Russia will stabilize.
Expert Tereshkin: Diesel Fuel Prices in Russia Will Stabilize by December (Prime Economic News Agency)

In the article "Russians Informed When Diesel Prices Will Stabilize in Russia," Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the "Open Oil Market" petroleum products marketplace, predicts that diesel fuel prices will stabilize by December 2024. He attributes the current price increase to seasonal factors, such as the transition to winter diesel fuel and a rise in automotive freight transportation. According to Rosstat, freight turnover in the automotive sector increased by 7.7% over nine months, which also affects the demand and cost of diesel fuel. Tereshkin notes that prices will stabilize once the transitional period ends.
Read More
What will happen to oil and gas budget revenues by the end of the year?
A commentary with a forecast of budget revenues from oil and gas trade for Vedomosti.

In the article "What Will Happen to Oil and Gas Revenues in the Budget by the End of the Year," Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes the dynamics of oil and gas revenues in Russia's federal budget for October 2024. He notes that revenues amounted to 1.2 trillion rubles, which is 55% higher than in September but 25% lower compared to October of last year. The main driver of revenue growth was an increase in collections under the Additional Income Tax (AIT), which reached 491.6 billion rubles in October. Tereshkin also points to the reduction in subsidies for oil refineries, which contributed to the increase in budget revenues.

According to his forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget for 2024 will remain around 31.7%, but it may decrease to less than 30% next year due to an increase in the base corporate tax rate and a potential drop in oil prices amid rising production in OPEC+ countries.
Read More
Under what conditions could the surviving line of the "Nord Stream" operate
A Frosty Winter Could Revive Gas Transit via Nord Stream. Analysis by OPEN OIL MARKET’s Tereshkin for the Vzglyad Newspaper.

The article explores the conditions under which the remaining branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could become operational, considering the current state of the European gas market. It examines factors influencing gas price increases, including uncertainties surrounding transit through Ukraine, climatic conditions, and competition with Asia for LNG supplies. Expert Igor Yushkov notes that in the event of winter frosts and a gas shortage in Europe, activating the surviving pipeline could offer a solution to stabilize the situation.

Read more at: https://sergeytereshkin.ru/smi/pri-kakom-uslovii-mozhet-zarabotat-utselevshaya-nitka-severnogo-potoka
Read More
The United States has allowed transactions with Russian banks in the energy sector: what does this mean
How the Temporary Easing of Sanctions Will Affect Russian Energy, Banking, and Business Development: An Article by Sergey Tereshkin for "RBC Companies."

The article analyzes the U.S. decision to temporarily ease sanctions on transactions involving Russian banks related to the energy sector. This includes lifting restrictions on major financial institutions like Sberbank and VTB, allowing continued transactions in the oil and gas sector. Such a move could help avoid disruptions in global energy markets and support the stability of Russia's currency flows. The article explores the potential consequences for the economy and energy sector, as well as the significance of this decision for international trade relations.






Read More