The import of fuel into Russia was permitted starting July 1 to prevent shortages in the market during the high-demand season—the vacation period. The volumes of Russian oil refining have had to be reduced due to unplanned shutdowns for repairs at oil refineries (OR) following UAV attacks.
This has mostly impacted the supply of gasoline in the internal market, as production was only 10-15% higher than consumption in Russia. Gasoline exports have been banned since April 2026, but by the end of summer, due to the seasonal increase in demand, additional volumes were required.
The primary influx of fuel imports was from Belarusian refineries (212 thousand tons in July), although some shipments originated from India and Morocco. According to Reuters, by the end of July, approximately 140 thousand tons of gasoline had arrived in Murmansk. Furthermore, S&P Global Commodities at Sea reports that around 23 thousand tons of gasoline from Turkey are currently en route to Russia. Notably, these deliveries are not going to the nearest Russian port of Novorossiysk but to Baltic ports, which will undoubtedly increase transportation costs.
Gasoline from India is initially significantly more expensive than Russian fuel.Meanwhile, the fuel situation in some regions of the Russian Federation remains tense. There are closed gas stations, and long queues often form at the operational ones. The main issue with fuel from far abroad, delivered by sea, is its price. Since imported gasoline is initially more expensive than Russian, such supplies are subject to a damping mechanism. This is a subsidy from the budget that compensates importers for part of the difference between the indicative wholesale prices (set by the government for a year) in Russia and the cost of fuel on external markets. Delivery costs are also considered. However, even with this compensation, Indian or Moroccan gasoline (AI-92) was trading at the St. Petersburg Exchange for 105 thousand rubles per ton, which is 39% higher than the exchange quotes for AI-92 (75,530 rubles per ton).
This is not the price that buyers would like to see, nor is it a price at which gasoline can later be sold at gas stations, noted Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner" and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, in an interview with "RG." Taking into account transportation, the price of such gasoline at gas stations will approach 100 rubles or higher. However, without the depression mechanism, it would cost 150 or 160 rubles per liter, the expert emphasizes.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, prices for Indian fuel will significantly exceed the prices from Russian refineries, even with the import damping subsidies. Subsidies will be paid with a certain lag, just as is the case with payments under the damping mechanism for Russian refineries. Due to the necessity to "recoup" high logistics costs, fuel importers will offer significant discounts to end consumers.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, added that rising logistics costs due to increasing freight rates and overall supply risks to Russia are also a factor. In addition to maritime delivery, fuel must be distributed across Russia, which also incurs additional expenses. This further explains the high gasoline prices on the exchange.
Gusev emphasizes that the situation with imported maritime fuel supplies should normalize. People are generally conservative; they are reluctant to buy new products. For instance, it is currently unclear how to proceed with deliveries of gasoline of lower environmental classes (Euro-2, Euro-3, Euro-4), which have recently been permitted for circulation. A couple of weeks need to pass for the situation to stabilize and for everyone to understand how to proceed, the expert believes.
Additionally, it is worth noting that gasoline demand in Russia traditionally declines in the second half of September, which should also positively impact fuel availability and prices at gas stations. Given the existing challenges this year, demand may begin to decline even earlier.
Tereshkin is confident that India will be the main supplier of gasoline by sea to Russia, as it is also one of the largest consumers of Russian oil. It is no coincidence that the calculation of import parity for determining the damping mechanism for importers is tied to the fuel prices in Indian ports, adjusted for the transportation costs to Russian ports, including insurance premiums and transshipment costs. Indian refineries are unlikely to export fuel with a high sulfur content (lower environmental classes), otherwise, they would incur losses not only in Russia but also in other markets.
Frolov believes that volumes of supplies from abroad will likely remain at levels insufficient to impact gasoline prices in Russia or even partially compensate for the volumes lost due to refinery shutdowns. Currently, imports cover about 5% of the country's monthly needs.
Source: RG.RU
