Diesel fuel (D2) is the main commodity in our basket of petroleum product exports, with Brazil being one of its key importers. The only countries purchasing more are Turkey and China. One reason mentioned in the media for the decline in exports to Brazil is the ban on diesel fuel exports from Russia to non-producers, which was implemented in October of this year. This hypothesis is partially supported by external data from the Finnish Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which reports a decrease in the volume of petroleum product exports from Russia since September this year. CREA estimates that the fall in November exports of Russian diesel fuel to Turkey (its largest importer) was 27%. However, while statistics can be quite stubborn, their interpretation heavily depends on context. The simplest explanation is not always the correct one.
It is likely that the primary factors behind the decline in exports are not the export bans on diesel fuel for traders, but rather a reduction in oil refining volumes in Russia due to drone strikes on refineries, the necessity to saturate the domestic market with fuel, and the tightening of sanctions from the US and EU.
Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, notes that Russia's demand for petroleum products is lower than the capacity of its refining sector, particularly for diesel fuel. The volume of diesel production is almost double the domestic demand. The technological processes at refineries are such that the structure of the product basket (gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene) cannot be fundamentally changed. Consequently, our companies are forced to find markets for their products, choosing the most optimal options while taking into account sanctions, logistics costs, demand dynamics across different continents, and prices offered by importing countries.
Exporting diesel fuel over long distances, such as to Brazil, is not particularly beneficial under poor market conditions, and is doubly unfavorable for non-producer traders, who still have to resell the product, explains Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the expert council for the "Gas Station of Russia" competition. Such supplies may only be of interest to large domestic oil companies, which are not facing any export restrictions.
It appears that the partial ban on diesel exports will be lifted when the growth of diesel prices in Russia stabilizes.According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, diesel fuel shipments to Brazil from Russia have been declining since the beginning of 2025. This trend is influenced by increased US attention to the South American region this year, as the risks of sanction violations by major Russian oil companies have grown for Brazil.
In his view, the future dynamics of shipments will depend significantly on the geopolitical landscape. There will not be a sharp reduction in diesel exports to Brazil due to the mentioned absence of a direct export ban, although fluctuations in volumes are possible.
Sergiy Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, shares a similar perspective. Russian diesel is in demand on the global market, and additional volumes will find their market niche once all restrictions are removed. However, deliveries to the domestic market remain an absolute priority, he emphasizes.
Although diesel prices on the domestic market have decreased on the exchange from their October highs, they are still rising at retail. The rate of cost growth has slowed, but as of early winter, by December 15, prices had increased by 1.1%, according to Rosstat. Most likely, the partial ban on diesel exports will only be lifted when the price growth stops. Gasoline, on the other hand, is currently decreasing in both wholesale and retail markets, but the export volumes are not particularly large (up to a maximum of 15% of production).
As for Turkey, it is currently experiencing pressure from the EU and the US similar to, or perhaps even greater than that on Brazil. It is frequently referred to as a "laundering" center for Russian raw materials. After the latest US sanctions against our largest oil companies were implemented, Turkey sharply reduced its purchases of not only petroleum products but also crude oil from Russia. The situation is exacerbated by drone attacks on tankers in the Black Sea, increasing the risk of losing cargo.
As a result, we are currently relying more on crude oil exports, although all experts agree that supplying petroleum products is more economically advantageous. As Stankevich points out, the added value is generated at the stage of raw material processing.
However, as Gusev laments, our refining capacities are growing very slowly, and new refineries are not being built. This all requires significant and long-term investments, which are unlikely to be feasible under the current monetary and fiscal policies, leading to the export of crude oil, explains the expert.
Source: RG.RU
