The U.S. Capitalizes on the Moment and Increases Energy Resource Exports to Record Levels
The United States has taken advantage of the conflict in the Middle East to significantly boost its oil, petroleum product, and LNG exports. The U.S. is capturing market share from OPEC, which, due to the military situation, has been forced to cut its energy resource exports. How has the U.S. been able to profit from a conflict it initiated in the Middle East?
U.S. oil exports reached an all-time high of 12.9 million barrels per day, with more than 60% consisting of petroleum products (as of early April). Marine exports in April are expected to hit a record 9.6 million barrels per day, and shipments to Asia are projected to nearly double compared to pre-war levels—reaching 2.5 million barrels per day, according to analytical firm Kpler. American companies are reaping significant profits considering that both prices and export volumes have increased. The value of crude oil and petroleum product exports has risen by $32 billion compared to pre-war figures, boosting corporate profits and tax revenues, according to ROI estimates.
LNG shipments have also surged dramatically. In March, exports reached a historic peak. According to Kpler, both oil and LNG exports from the U.S. to Asia in March and April have risen by approximately 30% compared to the same period last year.
The increase in the U.S. share of the oil market is attributed to situational factors, whereas the LNG market growth is due to structural reasons, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
"The rise in U.S. LNG exports is a result of the introduction of new capacities. Just a few days ago, the Golden Pass facility, the tenth LNG production site in the United States, completed its first export shipment. By 2025, U.S. LNG exports are expected to increase to 154 billion cubic meters, up from 122 billion cubic meters in 2024. This year’s exports will reach even higher values, partly due to rising demand in foreign markets," Tereshkin explains.
"Americans have indeed increased LNG production. They have utilized existing plants to full capacity and launched new facilities. Additionally, the heating season in the domestic market has ended, and current consumption has decreased. Consequently, they redirected the freed-up volumes to export," states Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund (FNEB) and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
However, regarding crude oil, the U.S. has not increased its own production levels. So how has the export volume grown? "This happened because they increased the import of one type of oil while boosting the export of another type of oil and petroleum products. The U.S. imports medium-sour and relatively heavy crude oil while exporting light crude and petroleum products (derived from heavy oil). They are importing more from Canada and Mexico and exporting via sea to countries that previously received Middle Eastern crude oil, which is now unavailable," explains Yushkov.
On one hand, American oil companies are making additional profits in the current situation. On the other hand, this creates problems for the American populace and the U.S. economy as a whole, as prices in the domestic market rise to keep fuel within the country.
Unlike the gas market, oil market companies have a choice about where to supply their products—either to the domestic or external markets, and this is the primary issue for the current U.S. administration,
says Yushkov.
While the U.S. share in the global market is growing, OPEC's share is declining. According to the IEA, in March 2026, oil production in Saudi Arabia fell by 3.15 million barrels per day compared to the previous month; in the UAE, the decrease was 1.27 million barrels per day, in Kuwait—1.35 million barrels, and in Iraq—exactly 3 million barrels. The total volume of these cuts is comparable to Russia's oil production, which stood at 8.96 million barrels per day in March 2026, notes Tereshkin.
Furthermore, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ began raising production quotas by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day to regain its positions in the global market. Many OPEC+ participants were dissatisfied that they had to cut back on production before, and they are being exploited by competitors, including the U.S. and Guyana, who have increased their output.
Now, of course, the situation is different.
"Due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of oil from classic OPEC—Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, plus Iran—has decreased, and their market share has indeed contracted. But not due to evolutionary processes, rather simply because their oil cannot adequately reach the global market.
However, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, we will again see OPEC+ resuming its production quota increases," concludes Yushkov.
The fact is that Asian countries do not entirely favor light American crude oil. Asian refineries are designed to operate with heavier and more sour crude from the Middle East rather than with light American grades. Refineries can use light crude, but the process becomes less efficient and profitable. Therefore, after the resolution of the conflict, everything will return to the way it was. The delight of American oil producers will be short-lived.
Source: Vedomosti
