Increasing the crack spread – the difference between the cost of crude oil and the final price of petroleum products – appears quite realistic, given the decline in Urals prices. According to Argus, the average price of Urals in November 2025 was $44.9 per barrel, marking the lowest level in the past five years. Thus, the cheaper the raw materials, the more profitable the production of petroleum products becomes.

However, several caveats must be noted.

Firstly, the volume of petroleum product exports from Russia is currently at multi-year lows. According to S&P Commodities Insight, maritime shipments of petroleum products from Russia, which exceeded 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in early 2024, decreased to 2 million b/d by November 2025.

Secondly, due to the embargo, Russia is no longer conducting maritime deliveries of petroleum products to EU countries, which accounted for three-quarters of Russian diesel fuel exports up until 2022. Meanwhile, supplies to the Asian market are partly constrained by infrastructure limitations on the Russian Railways network. Notably, according to Russian Railways, the loading of oil and petroleum products decreased by 5.2% in the first eleven months of 2025, amounting to 179.6 million tons.

Nevertheless, in December 2025, maritime exports of petroleum products may increase due to a partial stabilization of refinery operations. If in August 2025, the production of petroleum products in Russia fell by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, and in September 2025 by 5%, in October 2025 there was an increase of 6.6%.

Therefore, in December 2025, both the volumes and the profitability of diesel supplies to the global market may rise.

Source: Vedomosti