Gasoline Retained in Country: Will Export Ban Lower Prices

From April 2 to July 31, Russia has implemented a ban on gasoline exports for all market participants. Despite a decrease in gasoline production within the country and an increase in demand with the advent of spring, gasoline prices, which had risen since the beginning of the year, immediately began to fall. The increase in global oil and petroleum product prices, including gasoline, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, drives producers to consider selling gasoline in foreign markets. On the other hand, the same high global prices will allow oil companies to receive significant compensations from the government. Forbes examines the reasons behind the rise in gasoline prices, the rationale for the export ban, its duration, and the impact on the business of Russian producers. On April 2, the Russian government released a resolution instituting a complete ban on gasoline exports until July 31, 2026. "The decision was made to maintain a stable situation in the domestic fuel market during a period of high seasonal demand and agricultural fieldwork, as well as due to rising global oil prices caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East," the government announcement states. The restriction will not apply to supplies under international intergovernmental agreements, as noted in the resolution. In 2025, a complete ban on gasoline exports was introduced on August 31 due to a sharp increase in wholesale and retail prices and lasted until the end of February 2026. The ban was lifted thanks to a decrease in prices, according to Sergei Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products marketplace Open Oil Market. Although prices began to rise again on January 12, 2026, the first day of trading on the St. Petersburg exchange this year, they were still lower than in August, when the ban was introduced. On February 27, just before the embargo was lifted, AI-92 was priced at 59,263 rubles per ton, a decrease of 13.3% compared to August 29, the last trading day before the export ban, when the price was 68,435 rubles per ton. The price of AI-95 fell even more sharply—by 20.7%, down to 62,677 rubles per ton from 79,054. Russian customs statistics have been closed since 2022. According to the last available data, in 2021, the country exported 4.4 million tons of automotive gasoline, which was 24.5% less than in 2020. The total production volume in 2021 amounted to 40.8 million tons. Data on gasoline production will no longer be disclosed by Rosstat starting in 2024. Vice Premier Alexander Novak estimated the production volume for 2024 at 44.1 million tons and expected it to be maintained or to grow slightly in 2025. Forbes sent inquiries to major Russian oil companies—Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Gazprom Neft—regarding whether they have ceased gasoline exports, but as of the time of publication, no responses were received. The instruction to impose a complete ban on gasoline exports was given to the Ministry of Energy by Vice Premier Alexander Novak following a meeting with representatives from oil companies and relevant agencies on March 27. The day before the meeting, on March 26, Alexander Dyukov, head of Gazprom Neft, proposed introducing a full ban on gasoline exports for two to three months. He stated to journalists that, in his opinion, this measure was necessary to prevent fuel from being drained to external markets, where prices are significantly higher.

Price Trends and Influencing Factors

Gasoline prices, which had been rising since the beginning of the year, began to decline as early as March 25, likely following early reports that authorities were discussing the introduction of an embargo. On March 24, AI-92 prices peaked, having risen 25% since the beginning of the year to reach 68,504 rubles per ton. Even more, gasoline AI-95 saw a 31% increase, pushing its price to 77,483 rubles per ton. By April 2, AI-92 was trading at 65,196 rubles per ton, down 4.8% from its peak, while AI-95 dropped to 70,031 rubles per ton, decreasing by 3.4%. On March 19, a week before Novak's meeting with oil producers, Anton Rubtsov, director of the oil and gas complex department of the Ministry of Energy, claimed that gasoline reserves in the country amounted to 2 million tons, more than a year ago. He also mentioned that the ministry was counting on an increase in oil processing volumes at refineries. However, prices continued to rise. The increase was influenced by the rise in excise taxes by 5.1% and an increase in VAT from 20% to 22% on January 1, 2026, according to Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the raw materials market analysis center at the Energy and Finance Institute (IEF). Scheduled repairs at major oil refineries and attacks from UAVs that forced facilities to cut back processing also contributed to the price hikes, he noted. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East spurred global oil and petroleum product prices as well. The surge in exchange prices for gasoline was related to oil companies' attempts to recover losses, according to Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. Payments to oil companies, known as the damper, amounted to 16.9 billion rubles in January 2026, which represented a 90% decline compared to January 2025, when they reached 156.4 billion rubles. In February 2026, oil companies contributed 18.8 billion rubles to the budget. The damper is paid to oil companies from the budget as compensation for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. If the calculated export price, determined by the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), is found to be lower than domestic prices, then the oil companies must cover that difference with budget payments. Tereshkin points out that the formula for calculating damper payments is quite complex, and is influenced by various special coefficients, including gasoline prices in Rotterdam, average costs for transshipment at Russian ports and maritime transport, as well as the price of Brent crude. Tereshkin asserts that informal arrangements between fuel producers and regulators may also have played a role in the rise of exchange prices, suggesting that oil companies may have been instructed to restrain price increases at the end of the previous year. This is indirectly evidenced by the decline in prices at the end of 2025. "Price restraint was intended to ensure regulators some decent inflation figures at the end of 2025; however, it resulted in a spike in prices at the beginning of 2026," he states. Yearly inflation in Russia accelerated to 6% in January, up from 5.6% in December, and remained high at 5.9% in February.

The Rationale Behind the Ban

The decision to ban gasoline exports took into account two factors, according to investment strategist Sergey Suverov of Aricapital. Firstly, with the onset of spring, gasoline demand increases due to the higher use of private vehicles than in winter. Simultaneously, Suverov states that production is decreasing due to drone strikes on refineries and energy infrastructure. By imposing restrictions, the government sought to prevent a potential shortage in the domestic market. However, Suverov believes that prices will continue to rise due to inflation. "The saturation of the domestic market may contribute to a certain slowdown in growth," he adds. According to Shevyrenkov from IEF, the export ban will have only a minimal impact on increasing physical supply in the domestic market. He estimates that Russia exports a relatively small volume of gasoline, with the majority being sent under intergovernmental agreements, primarily to Mongolia and members of the Eurasian Economic Union: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are not affected by the ban. Data on gasoline export volumes and directions are classified, Shevyrenkov reminds us. However, he estimates that beyond the supplies under intergovernmental agreements, Russia could have exported around 100,000 tons of gasoline per month, with domestic consumption exceeding 3 million tons per month. At the same time, the expert believes that the ban will limit the influence of high global gasoline prices on the Russian market, as producers will lose an attractive export alternative. Given that due to the conflict in the Middle East, global oil prices remained high throughout March, ranging from $80 to $110 per barrel, and since damper payments are based on a month’s lag, producers can anticipate significant payments in April, according to Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. He calculated that this month, oilmen could receive over 200 billion rubles from the budget. This is likely to slow the growth of exchange prices in April and May. However, due to the seasonal increase in demand, prices are expected to rise despite the export ban, Tereshkin warns. "Much will depend on whether regulators will reconsider the damper formula to ensure high subsidies for Russian oil producers if global petroleum prices start to fall," Tereshkin indicates. In October 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing oil companies to receive guaranteed compensations, but its effectiveness expires on May 1, 2026, and a decision must be made on how the damper payment scheme will operate going forward. Despite the high damper payments, producers still faced the temptation to sell small batches of gasoline abroad due to high global prices, according to Shevyrenkov from IEF. Suverov from Aricapital believes that companies, even with significant compensation, might continue to export gasoline to retain their foreign clients and receive revenue in foreign currency, which could be used for purchasing equipment or spare parts. If the situation with attacks on refineries and port infrastructure does not improve before the ban ends, it seems likely that the embargo will have to be extended, Suverov contends. Shevyrenkov from IEF also anticipates a possible extension of the embargo in the event the conflict in the Middle East continues. Source: Forbes