Russian oil refineries are gradually returning to fuel sales on the St. Petersburg Exchange following planned and emergency repairs. Wholesale trading volumes have started to increase, unsatisfied demand is decreasing, and the situation at some gas stations is stabilizing. However, analysts warn that the market recovery will not be swift. Refineries with a total processing capacity of approximately 40 million tons of oil per year have resumed fuel sales on the St. Petersburg Exchange. This information is detailed in a report (available to “Ъ”) from the analytical agency Platts, part of S&P Global. Some large enterprises, which account for over 45 million tons of annual processing, have yet to resume participation in trading. As of July 20, the St. Petersburg Exchange has also eased the allowed price fluctuation limits on certain types of fuel. For gasoline AI-92, AI-95, and diesel fuel, under "franco-tank" and "franco-destination" supply conditions, the price increase corridor has been expanded from 0.01% to 5%, while a decrease of up to 10% is allowed. For "franco-car station of departure" deliveries, the maximum growth remains at 0.01%, with a decline of 5%. For aviation kerosene, growth is capped at 0.01% with a possible decrease of up to 20%. According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the widening of the price growth range aims to invigorate exchange trading, which is becoming an increasingly irrelevant price indicator. He notes that the majority of fuel is moving through off-exchange channels, and this trend has intensified in recent weeks. The government previously reduced the mandatory sales quota of gasoline on the St. Petersburg Exchange from 15% to 10% of production levels, and a similar adjustment is planned for diesel fuel. On July 20, the price of AI-92 on the St. Petersburg Exchange, according to the index for the European part of Russia, increased by 0.7% to 72,290 rubles per ton. AI-95 decreased by 2.3% to 74,610 rubles per ton, and the price of diesel fuel fell by 0.38% to 74,420 rubles per ton. The decrease in prices may indicate an increase in supply. This is further supported by the increase in wholesale sales volumes. According to the National Exchange Price Agency, on July 17, the volume rose by 4.6% compared to the previous day, reaching 13,740 tons. Despite the fact that 81.9% of the total volume of gasoline purchase applications remain unsatisfied, the level of unsatisfied demand has decreased across all grades of gasoline, as noted in the report. The most challenging situation is in the AI-98 / AI-100 segment, where 92.9% of demand remains unsatisfied. According to exchange data, from July 1 to 17, gasoline sales decreased by 47.8% year-on-year to 277,300 tons. Since the beginning of 2026, 4.74 million tons of gasoline have been sold on the exchange, which is 16.7% less than a year earlier. The market is also receiving additional support from fuel supplies from Belarus. According to the exchange, from July 1 to 17, sales of Belarusian gasoline amounted to 98,760 tons, which is 8.7% higher than the total for June. According to a source in the industry who spoke to “Ъ,” the situation at Russian gas stations has begun to improve: queues have dwindled, and many operators have returned to selling fuel without restrictions. Independent networks continue to receive gasoline supplies from Belarusian refineries and possibly integrated oil companies. “The peak of the deficit has likely already passed,” the source told “Ъ.” However, they pointed out the potential for gasoline reserves to drop below 1.5 million tons. According to the Energy Ministry, cited by President Vladimir Putin at the end of June, gasoline reserves have decreased by 4% year-on-year to 1.7 million tons. Another source in the industry noted that more capacity is currently being launched than is being lost. Sergiy Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, does not expect a rapid market recovery. He notes that high seasonal demand will persist over the next two months, so sharp improvements in the situation are unlikely. The balance of supply and demand, he points out, cannot be restored instantly, and a significant increase in production will only become possible closer to the end of the year as the affected refineries come back online. Valeria Popova, senior analyst at investment company Rikom-Trust, emphasizes that stabilization will require a restoration of reserves, a decrease in exchange price volatility, and easing of temporary restrictions. Source: Kommersant