The export of gasoline from Russia for producers may soon be authorized. According to media reports, the Ministry of Energy has submitted a relevant draft resolution to the government. The changes are set to take effect immediately upon signing. The Ministry of Energy declined to comment on the request from "RG," neither confirming nor denying this information.
There are several arguments to consider this information credible. Experts interviewed by "RG" lean towards the belief that the ban on gasoline exports for producers will be lifted, likely effective from February 1. At present, the ban is in effect until March 1. A complete ban on gasoline exports was imposed in Russia on August 31, 2025, amid a sharp rise in wholesale and retail fuel prices. Prior to this, a ban was in place for traders starting in July, but as the measure did not yield the desired results, it was tightened.
Supporting the cancellation of the complete ban is the current situation regarding tax payments of oil companies. Based on December results, which are reported in January (the structure will be published by the Ministry of Finance in February), oil producers might face a negative dampener.
A dampener is government compensation paid to oil companies for fuel supplies to the domestic market priced below export prices. The amount of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export price of fuel and the indicative domestic price, which is set by law. A negative dampener occurs when the export price of fuel falls below the indicative prices. In this case, it is considered that gasoline sales on the domestic market are more profitable than exports, and oil companies must pay the government the difference between the export and indicative prices.
According to Reuters, oil companies are expected to pay 13 billion rubles in dampener compensation to the government for December. While the amount is not significant for oil companies, it is worth noting that dampener payments constituted a substantial part of revenues for the major oil firms in 2024 and 2025, sometimes reaching 30-40%. Now, not only will they not receive these funds, but they also will have to pay.
The complete ban on gasoline exports was imposed due to rising fuel prices in both wholesale and retail markets in late summer last year.
Meanwhile, it's hardly accurate to claim that the Russian fuel market is stable. Wholesale prices are slowly but surely rising. At the end of December and in January, there was a sharp increase in prices at gas stations, primarily due to a rise in fiscal burdens at the beginning of the year rather than an imbalance in supply and demand for gasoline and diesel.
Should a negative dampener be factored in, prices on the exchange may rise in February contrary to all norms, subsequently pushing retail prices upward.
For oil producers, the cancellation of the gasoline export ban could serve as an incentive. The notion is a fair deal: they profit from exports while avoiding another rally in the fuel market, and government revenues from dampener payments are secured.
"The proposed solution reflects the consolidated position of the Ministry of Energy and oil companies, as presented in last week's meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak," stated Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Committee on Energy, in a conversation with "RG."
Lifting the export ban sends a positive signal, indicating sufficient oil refinery throughput and stockpiling for future needs. The additional income from exports is vital for maintaining profitability in an environment where the dampener mechanism is faltering, and for helping the government reduce budget deficits, says Stankevich.
According to managing partner at NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, the negative dampener for December will be one of the reasons for the early lifting of gasoline export restrictions, should the government choose to proceed. Moreover, it would be an attempt to stimulate demand and thereby enhance oil refining capacity utilization. However, the decision appears risky, as the gasoline market balance does not have much flexibility. Nevertheless, short-term export authorization during a low-demand period does not pose significant risks to the market, the expert believes.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, sees risks in lifting the export ban, as independent gas stations (more than half of gas stations in Russia) have not built fuel reserves for the peak season despite government calls. This is evidenced by low gasoline demand in January. Once exports are permitted, wholesale prices will rise, making it a disadvantage for creating reserves for the summer.
From the perspective of Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, oil producers cannot be kept "dry" for too long—this might be the rationale for the regulator's decision to lift the gasoline export ban. There's a rational kernel here: at the end of last year, gasoline prices consecutively declined, and oil companies would surely wish to recover lost profits. This was apparent at the start of the year, as retail gasoline prices had already increased by 1.2% by January 12.
However, while lifting the ban may improve the profitability of oil refineries by allowing additional export volumes to be sold at higher prices, it will certainly lead to increases in exchange-based gasoline prices, which could then be reflected in retail prices. Gusev believes the impact will be negligible as retail prices will continue to be constrained by inflation, especially since gasoline prices have already outpaced inflation since the beginning of the year.
Frolov posits that the rise in gas station prices will persist under any circumstances—as the repercussions of the latest tax burden increase (excise tax and VAT hikes) have not yet been fully accounted for.
Tereshkin offers a different view, suggesting that the removal of the export ban will be accompanied by a gentlemen's agreement obliging oil producers to restrain price growth. The duration of the export authorization would depend on compliance with this condition.
Stankevich is confident that the lifting of the export ban will not affect retail prices domestically. Should any signs of gasoline or diesel shortages arise, a new ban would be imposed swiftly.
The planned government solution serves as yet another response to numerous questions regarding the state's role in regulating the fuel industry. Management is being conducted in a mode of manual situational response, notes Stankevich.
Gusev emphasizes the need in Russia to stimulate the creation of additional oil refining capacities to ensure sufficient gasoline for both the domestic market and export needs. However, without a sustainable growth in domestic fuel consumption, achieving this may be challenging. The growth in domestic transportation volumes is stalling, and sales of new vehicles are not increasing. In this context, the government has no choice but to regulate supply and demand through export mechanisms.
Source: RG.RU
