The extension of the complete ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year and the introduction of restrictions on diesel fuel (DF) exports for non-producers (traders) starting October 1 have not yet had any impact on the fuel market. Prices continue to rise both in the wholesale and retail sectors. However, the government still has a few cards up its sleeve.
Firstly, we can expect an increase in fuel production due to the commissioning of modernized capacities at oil refineries (ORFs). This possibility was previously mentioned by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. An increase in supply in the market could reduce the artificially heightened demand and bring prices down. But for now, this is not happening.
Secondly, a complete ban on diesel exports is also possible, including for producers. Diesel is produced in Russia at twice the rate of consumption, with the surplus being exported. While a deficiency of DF in Russia is unlikely, its export is a significant revenue source for oil companies, and the ban could serve as an ultimatum for these companies to take measures to alleviate the pressure on the domestic market.
Moreover, as Novak mentioned, the situation with gasoline in some regions is being resolved "manually." Local authorities may take various emergency measures, ranging from freezing maximum prices to limiting sales volumes. There is also the option to adjust mandatory fuel sale volumes through the exchange, which could significantly increase supply in the wholesale market.
On the other hand, softer measures could be considered, such as negotiating with oil companies, as was done in 2018 before the introduction of the dampener (a mechanism that compensates oil companies from the budget for supplying fuel to the domestic market at low prices, operational since 2019). As of now, oil refineries are not expected to receive dampener payments for gasoline in August and September. However, the idea of adjusting the dampening mechanism to ensure companies do not lose compensation has been proposed. This initiative has even gained approval from the Ministry of Finance, an agency that is typically reluctant to incur additional budget expenditures.
However, as explained to "RG" by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, if the State Duma adopts the draft law introduced by the government that expands the price range for receiving the dampener (plus 20% to the maximum price), oil companies are likely to receive payments for gasoline for September. The average price per ton did not exceed 72,100 rubles (the cutoff price).
Increasing the supply of fuel can also be achieved through imports from China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
One might argue that only a week has passed since the export bans were enacted, and it is too early for concrete effects to be seen. However, delayed impacts can still influence retail, and gas stations may not have felt any significant changes. The exchange reacts immediately and also responds to information flows, but there has been no reaction. Furthermore, the ban on gasoline exports has been in place since August, yet there has been no observable effect.
On the exchange, the price for AI-92 gasoline has for the first time in history surpassed 74,000 rubles per ton, while AI-95 is very close to the 80,000 rubles mark per ton. Diesel fuel prices set another record, rising to 72,669 rubles per ton on October 7. Retail prices, according to Rosstat, show that gasoline as of the end of September outpaced consumer inflation by more than two times (9.7% compared to 4.29%), while DF is almost in line with inflation (3.7%). Moreover, diesel prices at gas stations increased by 1.1% in the last two weeks. If this trend continues, it may catch up with inflation this week. According to the Moscow Fuel Association (MTA), from September 27 to October 6, diesel fuel prices at capital gas stations increased on average by 35 kopecks (0.48%). New data from Rosstat is expected on the evening of October 8.
Stankevich believes that the reason for the rise in fuel prices on the exchange is directly correlated with the intensity of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. September indices confirm this. The shortage of supply in the market is driving prices higher. Export restrictions in such a situation are insufficient. However, the completion of unscheduled repairs at oil refineries, combined with fuel imports under intergovernmental agreements, will play a significant role, explains Stankevich.
Regarding DF, according to Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, its price increase in autumn is due to unplanned shutdowns at oil refineries, as well as the gradual transition from summer to inter-seasonal and winter fuel. However, since Russia has a much higher reserve capacity for DF, the measures already taken by the regulator should lead to market stabilization, according to the expert. He believes that there will be no export ban on DF for producers. That said, even in the absence of such a ban, the regulator retains the ability to manually regulate exports, for example, by revising applications for pipeline transportation to export terminals, clarifies Frolov.
However, waiting for a decrease in fuel prices at gas stations is not advisable, asserts Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET fuel marketplace. The preceding rise in gasoline prices will continue at least until the end of this year. According to Rosstat, in August 2025, oil product production in Russia declined by 6.3% compared to August 2024 and by 4.2% compared to July 2025. This refers to an overall output indicator published by Rosstat without absolute values. Statistics for September 2025 will only be available at the end of October; however, Rosstat data will likely demonstrate an acceleration in the rate of output decline. Therefore, the market can only be calmed by increasing fuel production—through both repairs and restarting idle capacities, as well as through increased imports from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and China, explains Tereshkin.
Yet, market calmness does not equate to price reductions, notes Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the supervisory board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the expert council of the "Russian Gas Station" competition. Fuel prices have historically never decreased; the discussion has always revolved around slow or rapid growth, which was limited by inflation. However, the market is now influenced by drone factors, which have rendered oil refining and fuel stock storage unprofitable. The fiscal system was originally designed such that exporting oil was more profitable than building oil refineries and processing it domestically. Now, we are trying to compel oil companies not only to process this oil but also to supply it to the domestic market. “We need to decide: do we want a market-based economy or a planned economy? If the former, then we must allow the market to find its own balance and determine the equilibrium price for gasoline and DF, rather than declaratively forcing oil companies to lower prices. The stick without the carrot will not work,” emphasizes Gusev.
Source: RG.RU
