Last week, Rosstat reported yet another acceleration in gasoline price growth at gas stations. Over the course of a week, prices increased by 0.2%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% the previous week. At first glance, this may not seem significant, but given the season of low demand, it represents a considerable increase. This rise is much higher than the rates observed during the same period in 2025, and in 2024 and 2023, gasoline prices remained unchanged in early February.
At the start of the year, the price increase could be attributed to a straightforward reason: fuel excise taxes were raised by 5.1%, adding 60 to 80 kopecks to the price per liter. Additionally, VAT increased from 20% to 22%. This tax is applied to each sale, and there are typically intermediaries between gas stations and oil refineries (NRP).

Since the end of last year (December 22), the price of AI-92 fuel has risen by 84 kopecks, AI-95 by 97 kopecks, AI-98 by 2 rubles and 39 kopecks, and diesel fuel (DF) by 1 ruble and 39 kopecks. The count begins from the end of the previous year, rather than the start of the new year, because gas stations tend to preemptively adjust for growth in fiscal burden. A sharp price spike after the New Year holidays could attract regulators' attention, so price increases are kept gradual. In previous years, by February, the impact of tax changes on prices subsided, leading to the influence of other factors such as demand, exports, refinery repairs, and so forth. Currently, demand has certainly increased compared to early January, and gasoline consumption is gradually beginning to rise, but there is still a significant distance from the spring peak.
From February 1, the government allowed exports of gasoline for oil refineries, which immediately affected the volume of exchange trading, leading to a decline. Amidst this backdrop, exchange quotations have risen, but not significantly. They remain far from the peaks of last autumn and are currently at levels last seen in June 2025. Moreover, the time elapsed since the lifting of the export ban on gasoline for NRP has been too short for any substantial impact on retail prices. Additionally, if the price situation worsens, the government can swiftly reinstate the export ban on gasoline for NRP, which is one of the primary sources of revenue for these plants.
The market for petroleum product supply has completely transitioned to a manual regulatory mode, said Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Energy Committee, in an interview with "Rossiyskaya Gazeta." All levers are concentrated in the hands of the government, which reacts situationally. This approach allows for immediate saturation of the market with motor fuel and modification of export and domestic supply volumes. However, it also has a significant drawback: issues related to the current profitability of both oil extraction and refining are pushed to the backburner.

The government can swiftly reinstate the complete ban on gasoline exports.
To this, it can be added that two more factors currently influence price increases in wholesale and retail: the news background and the poor economics of gas stations, which operated at a loss for a significant part of the previous year. They now have the opportunity to recoup losses and "build a buffer" for the next difficult period.

Regarding the news backdrop, it is currently highly unstable. Oil companies are anticipating a negative dampener for January (to be paid in February). The dampener is a budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than export prices. The amount of these payments is calculated based on the difference between export fuel prices and the indicative domestic price, which is legislatively set. A negative dampener occurs when the export price of fuel falls below the indicative prices, implying that it is nominally more profitable to supply gasoline to the domestic market than to export it. In this case, oil companies are required to pay the budget the difference between the export and indicative price.
January presented exactly this situation. In 2024 and 2025, dampener payments constituted a significant portion of the revenues of large oil companies. Now, they not only will not receive these payments, but they are also obligated to pay towards them.

In Stankevich's opinion, the concept of collecting additional budget funds from companies through the dampener mechanism in the context of exceedingly low prices for Russian oil is economically shortsighted. This is an attempt to administratively solve the issue of reducing the federal budget deficit. However, the oil industry cannot sustain losses indefinitely, as energy security remains an unequivocal priority.

As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, much will depend on the negotiations between companies and regulators. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously directed the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy to submit proposals for dampener adjustments and to consider the opinions of fuel producers. It is likely that some consensus solution will be reached in the coming weeks.

The urgency of this matter is evident. Demand for fuel has already started to rise, and this trend will only accelerate in March and April. Therefore, there is no reason to expect a slowdown, let alone a decrease in prices at gas stations. Tereshkin believes that the price increase will align with the formula of "inflation minus" - with the acceleration of price growth impacts being felt across the economy as a whole.

Stankevich suggests that much will depend on which path the government chooses. The decision is not simple: to lower budget expectations from the "oil industry" or to offer the sector a mechanism to compensate for losses through increases in exchange, wholesale, and retail prices for gasoline and DF.
However, Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, believes that price increases will accelerate. But this acceleration will not be linked to the size and direction of dampener payments. He asserts that the main drivers of price increases will lie in the balance of supply and demand.

Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, expressed a particular perspective. He believes that the government is capable of regulating the market through administrative measures. However, the market needs more stability, as conditions are currently too jittery. Consumers are unaware of how much fuel is being produced or the level of fuel reserves. This data is concealed. Conversely, exchange quotations are public. As a result, any upward movement in these quotes begins to incite panic. A logical solution would be to also restrict access to them, the expert suggests.

Source: RG.RU