On September 30, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed two resolutions that extend the ban on gasoline exports and the same ban on the export of diesel fuel for non-producers until the end of the year. Announcing this measure on September 25, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that it would help further supply the market with petroleum products.
The government already extended the ban on automobile gasoline exports earlier this year: from August 1 to the end of September, a full ban was in effect, which initially only applied to traders and small oil refineries (refineries). On September 4, the Ministry of Energy reported changes to the scheduled maintenance of refineries to avoid coinciding with peak gasoline demand.
As reported by "Kommersant", Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak approached Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin with a proposal to eliminate the 5% import duties on gasoline imported from China, South Korea, and Singapore through certain checkpoints in the Far East. However, these actions and proposals have not halted price increases.
The Russian government is observing a "slight shortage" of fuel supply in the retail market, which is being covered by accumulated stocks, as recently mentioned by Novak to journalists.
However, Igor Isaev, head of the Mind Money analytics center, believes there are reasons for concern: "When Mr. Novak mentioned a 'slight shortage', it sounded like a technical glitch, but in reality, we are talking about a systemic overload: scheduled and unscheduled maintenance at refineries, especially in the Volga region and the south, have reduced processing volumes, and logistics have not adapted in time." At first glance, the additional ban makes sense: if previous measures have not worked, stronger control is needed. "But if producers cannot quickly increase supplies, and traders are limited in their maneuvers, the ban might exacerbate tensions—particularly in regions where supply disruptions have become common," Isaev says. "In several areas, instances of gas station closures have been recorded, and restrictions on fuel sales are being implemented, indicating that the shortage has shifted from being 'slight'."
There is a lack of open and verifiable data regarding supply shortages in the regions, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the fuel marketplace Open Oil Market. "The only publicly available indicator is the index of petroleum product production, which reflects the overall dynamics of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and some other types of fuel," he points out. "According to Rosstat's data, the production of coke and petroleum products in Russia decreased by 6.3% in August 2025 compared to August 2024 and by 4.2% compared to July 2025."
In Crimea, restrictions on sales and fixed price ceilings for gasoline have already been implemented. On September 25, Crimea's head, Sergey Aksenov, reported a shortage at Crimean gas stations. He assured that within two days, Crimean gas stations would supply the required volume of AI-95 gasoline. However, on September 29, Aksenov posted on his Telegram channel that following a meeting with major oil traders in Crimea, an agreement was reached to limit gasoline and diesel fuel sales to no more than 30 liters per person, as well as to establish price ceilings. On October 1, the regional head clarified that the established limits did not resolve the problem, and the quota dropped to 20 liters.
Sevastopol's Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev announced on September 29 the introduction of gasoline limits at 30 liters per vehicle or jerrycan. "Gasoline is being delivered non-stop, but due to the rush at gas stations, we are unable to reach a planned operating mode," he stated in his Telegram channel, adding that there are no limitations on diesel fuel sales.
Analyst Anna Volkova from the "Yakob and Partners" analytics center explains the situation in Crimea as a combination of several factors: the remoteness from major refineries and the heightened demand from consumers. "The desire to stock up is driven by news of unscheduled refinery repairs and the observed closure of several gas stations due to unprofitability. However, once wholesale fuel prices stabilize, the situation should improve in October," Volkova believes.
The company "Premium Card Processing Center" reported on its website that at "Rosneft" and "Bashneft" gas stations, limits have been imposed on gasoline distribution of 100 liters per fuel card, while "Tatneft" gas stations have suspended fuel sales everywhere except for Tatarstan since September 15. Similar measures have been taken by gas stations of OLVI, GP Vympel (Saratov), and "Rose of the World" (Samara region). A representative of the "Premium Card Processing Center" told Forbes that the restrictions affect legal entities that are clients of the company and use her cards for cashless fuel payments at gas stations. Call center operators of "Rosneft", "Bashneft", "Tatneft", and "Rose of the World" told Forbes that they have no information regarding any restrictions at their stations. A GP Vympel representative assured Forbes that the company has enough fuel to avoid restrictions and is fulfilling all agreements with "Premium Card". Attempts to reach OLVI were unsuccessful.
Extending the ban on gasoline exports and expanding restrictions on diesel fuel for non-producers appear to be an attempt to stabilize the domestic market, says Igor Isaev from Mind Money. According to Reuters estimates, attacks by Ukrainian drones have halted enterprises accounting for at least 17% of oil refining capacity in Russia, or 1.1 million barrels per day, reminds Anna Volkova from "Yakob and Partners". "The country is losing every fifth liter of fuel daily," she states. "Restricting exports until production levels recover and the domestic market becomes saturated is justified."
Since the beginning of August, when drone attacks on refineries in the European part of Russia resumed and some facilities went into unscheduled repairs, wholesale prices have skyrocketed: AI-92 gasoline rose by 12% to 73,900 rubles per ton, while diesel fuel increased by 24% to 71,900 rubles per ton, say experts from "BKS Mir Investment," Kirill Bakhtin and Bulat Mudarisev. They remind that the full ban on gasoline exports has not yet cooled prices. "This may indicate that more than 13% of capacity has temporarily gone offline, which historically corresponds to the share of gasoline production directed for export. As for diesel fuel, a less radical measure will be adopted: the export ban does not apply to producers," the experts explain.
Furthermore, extending the ban on gasoline exports signifies maintaining the status quo for oil producers, believes Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the Open Oil Market. He recalls that the ban was already in effect in August and September, and its extension was quite predictable, considering that the gap between inflation and the pace of gasoline price growth has widened: according to Rosstat data, by September 22, 2025, the accumulated price increase for gasoline reached 8.4%, while consumer inflation stood at 4.2%. In this context, regulators had no choice but to implement a new ban.
Starting in August 2025, several additional measures will be introduced to support the fuel market. The first is an increase in the mandatory gasoline sales quota on stock exchanges from 15% to 17%, which will allow for greater control of pricing over larger fuel volumes and reduce the influence of speculators, says Volkova from "Yakob and Partners." The second measure is a possible adjustment to the damping mechanism, which will also impact price stability, she adds. "However, implementing the increase in damping for gasoline will require significant budget expenditures, as tax revenues from the oil and gas industry will decrease," the expert notes. This refers to the government compensating petroleum product producers for the difference between export and domestic prices. The government plans to raise the reference point for the so-called damping on gasoline and diesel by 10 percentage points to 20% and 30%, respectively (producers will receive payments even if export prices are higher).
Moreover, according to data from "Kommersant," Novak on September 24 approached Prime Minister Mishustin with proposals for saturating the domestic market with gasoline and diesel fuel. Among the additional measures is the elimination of the 5% import duties on gasoline imported from China, South Korea, and Singapore through certain Far Eastern checkpoints. Only authorized organizations—"Rosneft," JSC NNK, and the state-owned VPO "Promsyrieimport"—will be allowed to supply fuel. A damping mechanism is to be introduced for imported petroleum products.
This will allow approximately 150,000 tons of gasoline produced at the "Siberia" refineries to be directed each month to maintain balance in the central part of the country, as mentioned in the address. An increase in gasoline imports from Belarus is also proposed. In September, it is noted in the address, the supply of Belarusian gasoline is estimated at 45,000 tons. Contract processing of oil could allow for an increase in Belarusian gasoline supplies to 300,000 tons per month.
Source: Forbes
