The Russian fuel market is currently experiencing a significant shortage of A-95 gasoline. This situation has arisen due to unplanned refinery repairs, a reduction in primary processing, and seasonal increases in consumption. Market participants note that refineries are compelled to redistribute production in favor of the more socially significant A-92 grade. However, demand for A-95 is rising ahead of the summer season at a pace faster than supply. According to sources, off-exchange volumes are being sold at a premium of 10%, yet securing fuel at this price remains challenging.
According to a review by the National Exchange Price Agency, on May 8, 32.64 thousand tons of gasoline were sold during trading, marking a 5.9% decrease compared to the previous trading day. Sales of A-92 decreased by 8.9% to 20.34 thousand tons, while sales of A-95 increased by 1.5% to 12.24 thousand tons. The volume of unsatisfied solvent demand amounted to 23.46 thousand tons for A-92 and 26.34 thousand tons for A-95, as stated in the review.
A source in the industry told Kommersant that a shortage of A-95 fuel has already formed in the lead-up to the high consumption season. It is noted that during summer, demand for this type of fuel increases faster than for A-92, as consumers rely on vehicles designed to run on 95-grade gasoline during the vacation season. The source cites unplanned repairs at major refineries and a reduction in oil product output as contributing factors. In this context, oil companies are prioritizing resources to support their own distribution structures.
Andrei Dyachenko, chief analyst at Prolium, also highlights a shortage of A-95 volumes in the exchange channel. Currently, primary processing is significantly lower than planned levels, forcing oil companies to choose which type of gasoline to maintain production of. Nevertheless, he believes the situation is "far from critical." His estimates suggest that actual fuel outflows at gas stations are currently 7-10% lower than last year's levels, and the existing stocks and operating capacities are sufficient to meet final demand.
The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) reported that no complaints regarding gasoline shortages have been received, and there is no observed fuel deficit. Moreover, during the recent exchange committee meeting, the issue of gasoline shortages was not raised. The Ministry of Energy also informed Kommersant that the situation in the domestic motor fuel market remains stable and controlled.
Currently, the domestic market is sufficiently stocked with light oil products, the logistics of supply are functioning reliably, and no disruptions in regional supply have been recorded, as stated by the Ministry. "The industry is prepared to navigate through the period of seasonal demand growth in a planned manner, aided by measures implemented by the government, including a ban on gasoline exports and ongoing restrictions on diesel fuel exports for non-producers," the Ministry added.
A market source points to a shift in fuel consumption patterns in Russia—the mass renewal of the vehicle fleet with sensitive Chinese models has led to a sharp increase in demand specifically for A-95. The source believes that the assertion of the "social significance" of A-92 is outdated, as A-95 has become the primary product. Its production and logistics have been complicated due to incidents at refineries just ahead of the peak season. Additionally, the rise in domestic auto tourism during the May holidays exerts further pressure on the market.
Exchange quotations remain relatively stable due to an operational mechanism that limits price increases and decreases by plus 0.01% and minus 3% from the current market price.
As of May 8, the price of A-92 gasoline in the European part of Russia rose by 0.01% to 65,990 rubles per ton, while A-95 increased by 0.16% to 71,890 rubles per ton. Simultaneously, off-exchange volumes are being sold at a premium of around 10% over the exchange market prices, but supply in this channel also remains highly limited, according to one of Kommersant's sources. "Purchasing A-95 on the exchange is becoming extremely difficult," he notes. "Demand outweighs supply by several times—potentially more than tenfold."
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, also points to the recovery of the automotive market, which is leading to rising gasoline prices and an increased need for production. Additionally, the expert notes that A-95 is not considered in the calculations for the dampener—subsidies are tied to prices for A-92 and diesel fuel. Therefore, the risks of price hikes for A-95 are always higher, regardless of the physical availability of fuel, Mr. Tereshkin adds.
Experts from the analytical group "Ufa Oil" note that the increase in gasoline supply at the beginning of May was supported by the resumption of trading by large refineries. However, they continue, volumes later decreased again, partly due to the renewed suspension of exchange sales by some refineries. Additional pressure on the market comes from extended delivery times and reduced available supply in the wholesale market, the experts add. Delivery times in early May increased by an average of two to four weeks, according to a market source. He estimates that unplanned repairs at large facilities could take at least one month. This situation, he adds, prevents market participants from forming long-term reserves, increasing the risks of fuel shortages during the summer.
Source:
Kommersant
