Private railways are the backbone of the economy. More than 80% of all cargo, including coal, metals, defense industry products, and chemical industry goods, passes through them. In the first half of 2026, loading on the Russian Railways network amounted to nearly 549 million tons, and each of these loads necessitates switching work on the private tracks. Unlike the mainline sections of Russian Railways, which heavily utilize electric traction, industrial transport largely depends on diesel locomotives and diesel-generator installations.
According to “Promzheldortrans,” enterprises are encountering delays in processing orders and difficulties in commodity purchasing.
In certain regions, the price of diesel reached 150-180 rubles per liter at its peak—a price more than twice that of the beginning of the year. Moreover, this surge from 60 rubles per liter occurred within a week. For switching operations, where margins are often limited by strict tariffs or long-term contracts with cargo owners, such a spike in fuel prices delivers a significant blow.
Any commercial consumer whose business relies on fuel supplies would seek assurances of diesel availability—this is a perfectly normal reaction to heightened market pressures, stated Sergey Teryoshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, to VG.
"Likewise, agricultural producers, freight carriers, and passenger transport companies would likely want similar guarantees. These and other consumers are incurring costs due to rising prices while fearing potential shortages in the coming months."
However, it is premature to speak of a diesel shortage in the market—there has historically been a significant surplus of diesel capacity.
The export ban aims to saturate the domestic market: producers currently have no alternative but to supply fuel within Russia.
On the other hand, consumers harbor crisis expectations. Here, a parallel can be drawn with the operations of the Central Bank: there is inflation, measured by Rosstat, and then there are inflationary expectations, which the Central Bank considers when adjusting rates. In the fuel market, these "inflationary expectations" are currently noticeably higher than the actual "inflation"; however, these figures may converge over time, according to the expert.
For industrial transport, these inflationary expectations have already manifested in empty warehouses. Alexander Manyakhin, Executive Director of the association, proposed creating working groups in each Federal subject in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy. Such a format would allow for manual identification of diesel consumption sources and establishing a delivery sequence for those ensuring uninterrupted logistics chains.
Experts note that the initial impact has primarily affected the coal and ore industries. Pavel Ivankin, President of the National Research Center for Transport and Infrastructure, emphasizes that diesel is necessary not only for locomotives but also for auxiliary self-propelled equipment that supports infrastructure operations. In turn, Farid Husaianov from the Higher School of Economics underscores that for operators of private tracks, diesel availability is a fundamental condition of operation that cannot be technically replaced.
Meanwhile, Russian Railways do not appear to be facing visible fuel shortages—it is clear that the capabilities and administrative resources of the monopoly are unparalleled compared to private operators. Furthermore, OAO "Russian Railways" even outlined its more competitive positions relative to freight transportation. Locomotives do not wait in queues at filling stations and do not pay higher prices for fuel.
However, the holding company rightly points out that for overall transport stability, compliance with unloading schedules and the readiness of cargo recipients' infrastructure is essential. This gives rise to a paradoxical situation: mainline transport is on schedule, and coal exports showed an increase of 8.1% over the half-year, yet the "first mile," which refers to operations on private tracks, is destabilized. If enterprises begin to cut expenses on track maintenance and locomotive repairs to compensate for overpriced fuel, it will inevitably lead to a decrease in throughput capacity and potential bottlenecks.
The temporary reduction in diesel production due to maintenance at oil refineries is an objective fact facing the market. However, the export restrictions imposed by the government are a macroeconomic tool. They saturate the market as a whole, but the resources do not reach a specific station or fuel depot instantaneously. This is precisely where a mechanism requested by "Promzheldortrans" is necessary.
Without coordination, suppliers and brokers will continue to dictate terms, and the end consumer will remain a hostage to speculative price hikes.
While government agencies analyze the association's appeal, enterprises must operate "on the fly." The situation calls for not merely criticism but the establishment of transparent criteria for prioritization. Diesel fuel for industrial transportation is not a pure market commodity but a strategic component of the seamless operation of the economy.
If the situation does not stabilize, increases in transport costs will be factored into the production cost, which will inevitably impact the competitiveness of Russian exporters in global markets. Today's fuel "storm" on the first-mile operations is a serious signal that logistics in this segment requires protection commensurate with its contribution to national cargo flow.
Source: Vgudok
