Expert Forecasts Gasoline Prices in the Near Future

MOSCOW, November 4 - PRIME. Despite the moratorium on the zeroing of payments for the fuel damping mechanism, oil companies will likely keep exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline within the range of 70,000 rubles per ton in the near future, said Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the oil products marketplace "Open Oil Market" (Skolkovo resident) to RIA Novosti. President of Russia Vladimir Putin has imposed a moratorium on the zeroing of payments for the fuel damping mechanism from October 2025 to May 2026. The corresponding decree cancels one of the subsidy calculation rules, under which the damping is paid only if the average monthly price of AI-92 gasoline and diesel fuel on the exchange deviates from the indicative price by more than 10% and 20%, respectively. "Exchange prices are no longer considered in the subsidy calculation rules; however, oil companies will likely adhere to 'reasonable limits', resulting in AI-92 prices not exceeding the threshold of 70,000 rubles per ton," he commented on the trend of declining exchange quotes in October. The cost of AI-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange dropped by 11.4% in October. By the end of trading on Saturday, the price for a ton of AI-92 gasoline reached 65,232 rubles. However, this year, the price of this fuel grade has set records sixteen times.

The cost of AI-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange dropped by 11.4% in October. By the end of trading on Saturday, the price for a ton of AI-92 gasoline reached 65,232 rubles. However, this year, the price of this fuel grade has set records sixteen times.

Tereshkin believes that the current decline is a result of an informal agreement between regulators and companies to keep prices close to the former damping threshold (66,495 rubles per ton). The damping mechanism was created to curb domestic fuel prices. If the export price of gasoline and diesel is higher than the conditional internal (indicative) price, the state compensates companies for part of this difference to prevent them from raising prices in Russia. Conversely, if Russian prices are higher than export prices, oil companies share part of their profit from domestic sales with the state. The damping is paid in favor of oil companies only if the export price of fuel exceeds the domestic price. According to the current Tax Code, if the average monthly exchange price in Russia exceeds the threshold by 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel, then payments are zeroed.

However, authorities plan to increase the allowable deviation threshold for wholesale fuel prices from the indicative values by 10 percentage points - to 20% for gasoline and to 30% for diesel fuel - retroactively from September 1. According to Deputy Head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Sazanov, the corresponding amendments to the Tax Code have already been submitted to the State Duma.

Source: PRIME