EU authorities may freeze the price cap on Russian oil, which is subject to a semi-annual review, at $44.1 per barrel. With the increase in Urals prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, this adjustment could potentially ease the logistics of Russian crude oil. Nonetheless, prices for Russian oil currently exceed the EU price cap by $40, and Western shipowners continue to participate in its transportation.
According to a report by Bloomberg on May 31, the EU may temporarily forgo raising the price cap on Russian oil. The current cap stands at $44.1 per barrel and is to be reviewed every six months based on the average Urals price. Due to rising global prices related to the Middle Eastern conflict, the cap on Russian oil could have increased to $65 per barrel, the agency notes.
As reported by Bloomberg, the EU may suspend the automatic increase of the price cap until the end of 2026 or set a new ceiling at $60 per barrel.
This measure could be included in the 21st sanctions package imposed by the EU against Russia. A representative from the European Commission declined to comment on the agency's findings.
The EU and G7 countries allow their companies to provide services for the maritime transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries, provided they adhere to the price cap. The price of $44.1 per barrel was set by the EU, the UK, and Canada; Japan has established a cap of $47.6 per barrel, while the US has set it at $60 per barrel.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite, tankers linked to G7 countries or their allies accounted for 29.4% of Russia's oil exports in April, amounting to 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to 20.3% in March. The April figure represents the highest level in seven months.
Analysts attribute the increase in the share of G7-affiliated tankers to signals from Western authorities about a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil amid an impending raw materials shortage on the global market due to the Middle Eastern conflict. Since March, the US has issued four licenses for transactions involving Russian oil and petroleum products. The most recent license, effective until June 17, covers volumes loaded onto tankers by April 17.
Moreover, the EU refrained from including a ban on services for transporting Russian oil in the 20th sanctions package. Instead, the EU Council indicated that a "framework for a future ban" would be implemented in coordination with the G7. The council's regulation noted that it was prudent to consider adjustments to the price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products, enabling rapid "blockage" of maritime deliveries (see "Ъ" April 24).
According to Bloomberg, the complete ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil is unlikely to be part of the EU's 21st sanctions package against Russia.
This measure is not supported by several EU member states and the G7 as a whole, the agency reports. Previously, Greece—Europe's largest ship-owning country—opposed an outright ban. According to CAS, in April, Greek tanker operators increased the transportation of Russian oil by 2.2 times to 687,000 bpd, marking the highest level since October 2025.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University, states that the price cap itself does not influence the volumes of Russian exports. However, if the cap is increased and Russian oil falls within that range, competition between shadow and regular fleets would intensify, lowering freight costs and enabling Russia to earn more—this, according to the expert, is the complexity facing European officials, prompting them to reconsider their actions.
Kiril Bakhtin, head of the Russian equities analytics center at BKS World of Investments, notes that the price levels of $44.1 or $60-$65 per barrel are not particularly significant for Russian oil producers, as the actual price is higher. According to Argus, as of May 22, Urals prices ranged from $84 to $85 per barrel depending on the loading port. "The EU's price cap is, in our view, far less effective than the G7 cap," Mr. Bakhtin adds.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, states that implementing a price cap on oil is one of the most complex administrative measures.
"While monitoring incoming vessels for direct oil and petroleum imports is straightforward, tracking the price cap requires overseeing hundreds or thousands of oil purchase transactions, which is technically impossible," the analyst explains. However, Mr. Tereshkin points out that a temporary retreat from the price cap would signify an admission of its inefficacy, prompting the EU to consider another "reconfiguration" of this mechanism. In his view, this would not significantly alter the overall market situation.
Source: Kommersant
