Scheduled spring maintenance at Russian refineries may coincide with the seasonal demand increase for diesel fuel among agricultural producers, which is likely to arrive later than usual this year. Market participants believe that this combination could support quotes for summer-grade fuels, which have already reached their highest levels since October.
The later start of spring agricultural work due to adverse weather conditions may coincide with the planned maintenance periods at refineries, potentially supporting the diesel market, say industry sources to “Kommersant.” According to a market participant, an increase in quotes may also be facilitated by rising export parity due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
In anticipation of preparatory works for planned refinery maintenance, product inventories have been formed, which are currently at high levels and exceed last year's figures, the Ministry of Energy reported to “Kommersant.” Oil companies have agreed on fuel supply volumes for agricultural producers as part of preparations for the planting season, they noted. “The Ministry of Energy will continue to monitor the conditions in the motor fuel market, and necessary regulatory measures will be taken based on the evolving balance of supply and demand,” added the ministry.
On March 10, the price of summer diesel on the St. Petersburg exchange rose by 1.96% to 60.53 thousand rubles per ton according to the index for the European part of Russia. Inter-seasonal diesel increased by 1.1% to 60.63 thousand rubles per ton. These are the maximum figures for both types of fuel since mid-October 2025. From March 2 to 6, wholesale prices for summer diesel rose by 5.6%, while inter-seasonal prices increased by 7.7%.
Exchange prices for diesel moved to an upward trend in the first week of March amid external uncertainty and expectations of seasonal demand increases, according to a review by the National Exchange Price Agency.
Analysts note that market participants are beginning to form stockpiles ahead of increased consumption from the agricultural and construction sectors. However, despite the arrival of the calendar spring, actual demand remains subdued due to weather conditions that complicate logistics and slow down economic activity. At the same time, total sales of diesel remain relatively low at 57.9 thousand tons per day, which traditionally supports price increases, analysts point out. Oil companies are reallocating volumes in favor of summer diesel—its minimum sales plan for March is set at 310.9 thousand tons, which is 84% more than the February figure.
According to Andrey Dyachenko, the chief analyst for oil, oil products, and macroeconomics at Proleum, due to snowfall, agricultural activity may shift by two to three weeks, but the reserve of summer diesel has already been formed, making it impractical to increase it now.
Portfolio manager at Alfa Capital, Dmitry Skryabin, does not consider the current sales volume a factor for further price growth. Planned spring maintenance at refineries, if schedules are adhered to, will also not have a significant impact on the market, he believes. Moreover, he adds, last year's experience showed that there are substantial reserves in case of possible disruptions. Managing partner of NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, notes that Russia produces diesel fuel with a significant surplus, so the risk of shortage is low, even with possible unscheduled refinery shutdowns.
The dynamics of exchange prices for diesel in spring will also be influenced by the situation concerning damping payments, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. The higher the subsidies, he explains, the lower the incentives for oil companies to raise prices, and when payments decrease, companies compensate for losses by increasing wholesale prices. In February, oil companies transferred 18.8 billion rubles to the budget under the damping mechanism for the first time in five years, according to the Ministry of Finance. In January, budget payments to oil companies amounted to 16.9 billion rubles.
In March, amid rising international prices for oil products, the situation may shift in favor of producers, notes Sergey Tereshkin. Without an adjustment to the damping formula, prices could again exceed 70 thousand rubles per ton throughout the year, he adds.
In January, according to analysts from Euler, the profitability of diesel fuel exports for Russian producers surpassed domestic supplies for the first time at least since 2024, mainly due to declining exchange prices (see “Kommersant” from February 13). According to Reuters, in January, maritime exports of diesel and gas oil from Russia increased by 19% compared to December, reaching 4 million tons. In February, shipments decreased to 2.85 million tons due to difficult ice conditions in Baltic ports and unscheduled refinery repairs. Currently, diesel fuel can only be exported by producers; a ban remains in place for others until July 31.
Source: Kommersant
