Oil Exports from Russia by Sea Fall to Minimum Levels Since Early 2025
Amidst the adaptation to U.S. sanctions against LUKOIL and Rosneft, maritime oil exports from Russia plummeted to 291,000 tons per day in mid-November, marking the lowest level since early 2025. At the same time, freight rates for transporting crude from Russia continue to rise, reaching annual peaks in some routes.
Maritime oil exports from Russia decreased by 12.7% from November 10 to November 16, falling to 291,000 tons per day, according to the review from the Price Index Center (CCI). This is the lowest figure for the current year.
The primary decline was observed at the Primorsk port, where weekly loading dropped by 73.2%, reaching 43,000 tons per day. In total, three Aframax tankers with a deadweight of 100,000 tons departed from Primorsk: one heading to Turkey, another to Egypt, and the third to an undisclosed destination. Additionally, due to an incident, no shipments of Russian oil were recorded at the Novorossiysk port from November 14 to November 17.
The decrease in export volumes in the CCI is attributed to the restructuring of trading processes by certain companies. Analysts previously indicated that such a necessity could arise due to U.S. sanctions against LUKOIL and Rosneft. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS), China and India, the two largest buyers of Russian oil, have increased imports of crude from the Middle East and the Atlantic Basin in recent weeks due to the tightening of sanctions against Russia.
The increase in risk premiums and the global rise in demand for Suezmax tankers with a deadweight of 135,000 tons have raised freight rates for transporting Russian oil from Novorossiysk to West India by 1.2% over the week, to $8.6 per barrel, as calculated by the CCI. The cost of transporting oil from the Azov-Black Sea ports to Turkey has jumped by 2.8%, reaching $5.1 per barrel, while the direction to West India saw a 3.2% increase, reaching $8.8 per barrel, according to CCI reports. The global Suezmax index stood at $63,130 per day as of November 17, which is 1.7 times higher than at the beginning of October, according to S&P Global.
Market participants, as noted by the CCI, report a decrease in available free tonnage from Greek shipowners. Greece has long been essentially the only jurisdiction in the EU that owned vessels transporting Russian oil, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. Malta was another exception, but the volumes shipped by Greek tankers were significantly higher, he adds.
Some U.S. sanctions introduced at the end of October will take effect on November 21, causing shipowners to continue increasing risk premiums for transporting Russian oil. The CCI explains that potential issues in unloading ports due to failure to meet delivery deadlines could lead to substantial financial losses. However, analysts note that the decisive factor for rising freight rates will be the global trend of increasing maritime logistics costs driven by seasonal demand.
Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the cost of transporting Russian oil has peaked. However, the CCI predicts that by the end of the year, the record freight rates for Suezmax may be surpassed. The process of replacing some of the oil subject to sanctions will create additional demand for tankers, cites CAS Giovanni Gavarone from Maersk Tankers.
Until the end of 2025, the volumes of maritime oil supplies from Russia will also depend on how importing countries perceive the risks associated with sanctions, believes Sergey Tereshkin. According to him, the recent decision by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury to extend the timeline for LUKOIL to wind down its foreign operations is a positive sign that buyers may perceive as a sign of easing relevant risks. The CCI also believes that rising freight rates for Russian oil will attract global carriers, including Greek, Chinese, and shipowners from the UAE.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak declared on November 19 that U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and LUKOIL have not impacted oil production in Russia. In November, oil production in the country is growing slightly faster than in October, with the annual production forecast remaining at 510 million tons. The discount on Russian crude will gradually decrease as the market adapts, said Alexander Novak.
Source: Kommersant
