Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, stated in an interview with the Associated Press that Europe's jet fuel reserves are approximately sufficient for six weeks.
The energy crisis in Europe has been triggered by the war between the USA and Iran, which began on February 28, along with disruptions in oil supplies from Gulf countries. In March, Birol mentioned that this crisis is comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas crisis of 2022. "Not just oil and gas, but also some vitally important arteries of the global economy—such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium—are seeing trade disruptions, leading to severe consequences for the global economy," he asserted.
According to Birol, over 40 energy facilities had sustained significant damage since the onset of military actions.
Russian airlines reacted calmly to Birol's recent statement. For instance, a representative from S7 Airlines told RBC that the company does not observe any fuel shortages in any of the foreign countries within its route network. "There is also no [fuel shortage] in Russia," she added. The press service of charter airline Azur Air indicated that they do not foresee risks that could disrupt their summer flight program to Turkey due to fuel shortages.
RBC has sent inquiries to Aeroflot and Ural Airlines.
Oleksandr Lanetsky, CEO of Friendly Avia Support, told RBC that as of now, jet fuel is available at European airports. He mentioned that a shortage could arise in the next two to three months, depending on the country. "If supplies cease, transportation could decrease significantly. However, this is still a theoretical question," he stated.
Nevertheless, a source at one airline revealed to RBC that fuel prices in foreign airports have increased by at least 30% compared to pre-war levels, with some prices rising by up to 50%. "In the current environment, this will pressure the profitability of operations," he added.
Lanetsky confirmed that jet fuel prices in Europe have been rising since the beginning of the armed conflict in the Middle East. "Jet fuel accounts for approximately 40-45% of the operational expenses of European carriers," he pointed out. "In the last two months, the price of fuel has doubled on average. This is already impacting ticket prices." The expert added that he does not foresee the possibility of replacing traditional jet fuel with alternative fuel in the coming years.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, jet fuel prices today are "notably above normal." Data from the International Air Transport Association indicates that during the week ending April 10, the average price of jet fuel in Europe was $203.6 per barrel ($1,607 per ton). "This is 4.7% higher than the previous month's level and 123.5% higher than the average in 2025," the expert noted.
Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting, mentioned that kerosene prices in Northwestern Europe reached $1,800 per ton last week, while prior to the Middle Eastern conflict, it was priced at $750-830 per ton. "This represents more than a twofold increase in six weeks. The previous record was set in the spring of 2022, which the market has already surpassed," he added.
Tereshkin emphasized that jet fuel belongs to the category of light oil products, produced using low-sulfur oil. "This type of oil is sourced from the Middle East. Therefore, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz poses risks to the jet fuel market," the expert stated.
Kasatkin noted that jet fuel in Europe is primarily produced by major refineries—Total, Shell, BP, Eni, Neste. However, domestic production in Europe is insufficient; a significant portion of supply is imported as finished product and raw materials for its production. Key external suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and India, as explained by the RBC source. "European refineries may increase jet fuel output, but only at the expense of reducing diesel or gasoline production, which is already scarce," he pointed out.
Sergey Kolobanov, deputy director of the Center for Economics of Fuel and Energy Sectors at the Center for Strategic Development, assessed earlier in April that total jet fuel consumption in Europe in 2025 would be 48 million tons, of which only 30 million tons are produced by EU refineries. The remaining portion is imported, with half of the imports coming from Middle Eastern countries.
According to Tereshkin, it is too early to talk about a shortage. "There is a supply shock that overlays rising logistics costs. These factors will keep prices elevated, but do not threaten flight operations," he believes.
In contrast, Kasatkin argues that a shortage in Europe has already occurred: restrictions on refueling have been noted in four airports in Italy—the limit for individual aircraft is 2,000 liters, compared to the full capacity of a narrow-body aircraft of 20,000 liters.
"Airlines expect jet fuel to remain in shortage until the end of the year and may be forced to optimize their flight schedules," stated Kasatkin. "Some carriers did not hedge fuel risks and remain fully exposed to rising prices. Many have only a few weeks' worth of fuel left: most carriers will not last longer than 30 days, and in some Eastern European countries, reserves are down to just a week."
Kasatkin reminded that the last tanker carrying jet fuel from the Persian Gulf arrived last week. "If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, by May, reserves could be halved," he estimates. "This will lead to mass flight cancellations, increased ticket prices, and a severe blow to the tourist season for economies dependent on this in Southern Europe."
According to the analyst, among the emergency measures being considered are centralized jet fuel procurement at the EU level, temporary suspension of carbon restrictions for aviation, and the removal of certain taxes on air transportation.
Source: RBC
