Analysts predict the resumption of oil production growth in Russia.

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Analysts Predict Resumption of Oil Production Growth in Russia
03.12.2024
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Oil production in Russia will increase by 1% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd) excluding gas condensate, and 10.3 million barrels per day including it. This is stated in a study by VTB, prepared for the investment forum "Russia Calls!" which will take place on December 4–5 in Moscow.

VTB analysts note that global oil consumption next year may reach 104 million barrels per day, a 1% increase compared to the 2024 figure. By 2030, they estimate that demand will reach 108 million barrels per day due to increased consumption in Asia, especially in China and India. Oil consumption in developed countries (USA, Japan, EU countries) will remain stable.

Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of the oil products marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET:

According to the forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil production in the U.S. is expected to increase from 12.9 million bpd in 2023 to 13.2 million bpd in 2024, and 13.5 million bpd in 2025. This is a realistic forecast, given that prices are significantly above the breakeven point for production at new shale fields in the U.S. ($45 per barrel, according to Rystad Energy estimates).

Oil production in Russia will depend on the OPEC+ quota. According to the current terms of the deal, Russia's quota should increase from the current 8.98 million barrels per day to 9.45 million barrels per day (excluding gas condensate and light hydrocarbons, which are included in broader production statistics). For comparison, in October 2024, Russia's oil production volume was 8.95 million bpd. It is currently difficult to believe that production will exceed the 9.5 million bpd mark by the end of next year.

Overall, the risks of an early breakdown of the OPEC+ agreement will have a much greater impact on Russia's production dynamics than global demand trends. Russian companies and regulators should prepare for falling prices, which will still be sufficiently comfortable for U.S. shale producers.

Translated using ChatGPT

Sourse: www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2024/12/03/1078686-analitiki-prognoziruyut-vozobnovlenie-rosta-dobichi-nefti-v-rossii
#Economic Predictions #Russia #Oil Production #Energy Forecast # OPEC+ #Global Demand #Energy Market #VTB #Outlook Russian #Oil Industry #Geopolitics in Asia #China
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