The Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Market as of February 18, 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI Crude, the Gas and LNG Market in Europe, the Situation with Refineries and Oil Products, Coal, Electricity, and Renewable Energy. A Global Overview for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
The global commodity and energy sector enters the middle of the week in a state of risk reassessment: oil prices remain close to local lows amid expectations of progress in the US-Iran negotiations and a simultaneous increase in actual supply from certain producers. For investors and market participants in the energy sector, the key intrigue over the next 24–72 hours lies in the interplay of geopolitical premiums in oil, inventory dynamics in the US, and the resilience of demand for oil products amidst seasonal refinery maintenance in Europe and the restructuring of trade flows in Asia.
Oil Market: Price Benchmarks and Drivers
As of Wednesday morning, oil has stabilized after a noticeable decline in the previous session. Brent is trading around $67.65 per barrel, while WTI is near $62.52 per barrel. The balance of short-term factors appears mixed:
- Price Pressure: Expectations of potential easing of restrictions on Iranian supplies following positive news from the US-Iran dialogue, as well as increased production in Kazakhstan.
- Support: Ongoing risks of escalation in the Middle East and market sensitivity to any disruptions in maritime logistics.
For trading oil and oil products, it is now critical not only to follow the headlines but also to observe the speed at which “paper expectations” translate into physical barrels: the market responds to probabilities, but a sustainable repricing will only occur with confirmation of export flows and inventory dynamics.
Supply: Kazakhstan, Middle East, and “Risk Premium”
In terms of supply, a notable factor is the recovery of production at major fields and increased export potential from specific countries. The focus is on Kazakhstan: the project is expected to reach full capacity in the coming days, adding physical volume to the market and reducing sensitivity to short-term shortages. Concurrently, the negotiation agenda surrounding Iran creates an “asymmetric corridor” for oil: any signals of rapprochement could compress the risk premium, but the absence of final agreements keeps the potential for reverse price movements alive.
For investors, this implies that under the base scenario, oil remains in a range-bound trade, with the primary volatility linked to news regarding sanction architectures, shipping insurance, and tankers' availability.
OPEC+: Production Policy and Scenarios for Spring
OPEC+ strategy continues to serve as an “anchor” for oil market expectations. At this stage, participants maintain a cautious approach, factoring in seasonal demand and the necessity to balance market share and price stability. Key questions for April and the beginning of the second quarter are how quickly additional supply will return and how commercial inventories in OECD countries will respond.
The practical takeaway for the market: Given the current configuration of OPEC+ decisions, any unexpected disruptions in production or logistics could drive prices up in the short term, but without demand confirmations, the rise will be limited—especially if production increases simultaneously from non-cartel producers.
Asia: Record Imports and Changing Supplier Structure
On the demand side, Asia remains the main attraction for barrels. The region demonstrates exceptionally high volumes of oil imports, while the supplier structure is changing due to geopolitics, trade agreements, and price discounts. A noticeable reorientation of certain flows between Russia, Middle Eastern countries, and the US is particularly evident: logistics and contract conditions are becoming as important as absolute pricing.
For the global market, this means:
- Increased Competition for market share in India and the growing significance of official selling prices and premiums/discounts to benchmarks.
- Heightened Role of China as a stabilizer of demand for oil and oil products, especially when favorable price conditions are maintained.
- Increased Freight Sensitivity: Lengthening transport distances changes the economics of supply and may locally impact Brent-WTI spreads.
Gas and LNG: Europe Maintains Balance, Attention to Inventory and Weather
The European gas market is experiencing a noticeably more stable second half of winter compared to the crisis periods of previous years: supplies are diversified, the role of LNG has grown, and consumption is structurally lower. The current price benchmark for European hubs stands around €32 per MWh, reflecting a more balanced supply-demand scenario.
However, several risk factors remain for the gas and LNG market:
- Weather Volatility and short-term spikes in electricity demand in the event of cold fronts.
- Competition for LNG from Asia due to rising industrial consumption and recovery in certain economies.
- Regulatory Decisions regarding inventory management and storage rules affecting seasonal purchases.
For energy sector participants, the key indicator over the coming weeks will be the speed of gas withdrawal from storage and replenishment rates as signs of early spring emerge.
Refineries and Oil Products: Supply Risks in Europe and Regional Imbalances
The refining segment remains a source of local tension. Seasonal maintenance of refineries in Europe is expected to increase, heightening market sensitivity to disruptions and amplifying the importance of imported diesel and other oil products. An additional factor is infrastructure risks: reports of damage to certain capacities due to attacks in Eastern Europe raise the premium on supply reliability.
Practically, this leads to several effects:
- Diesel remains the most sensitive product: the balance depends on supplies from the Middle East, India, and transatlantic flows.
- Refinery Margins can be sustained amid limited supply, even if oil overall remains under pressure.
- Spreads between oil grades and product cracks become key sources of signals for traders and hedgers.
Electricity and Renewable Energy: Demand Growth and Acceleration of Capacity Increases
The global electricity market continues to evolve under the influence of two trends: growing end-demand (including data centers, electrification of transport and industry) and accelerating renewable energy capacity increases. In several major economies, the pace of adding solar and wind capacities remains high, altering the generation profile and increasing the importance of grid infrastructure and storage systems.
For energy investors, three directions are vital:
- Capital Programs for networks and flexibility (storage, demand management, gas peaking generation).
- Regulatory Framework and capacity markets shaping project profitability in electricity generation.
- Commodity Tail: Even with the growth of renewable energy, the roles of gas and coal remain crucial in balancing the system, especially during peak hours.
Coal: Prices Strengthen Amid Supply Constraints
The coal market at the beginning of 2026 demonstrates relative resilience: the price benchmark close to $117 per ton reflects a combination of supply constraints and heterogeneous demand across regions. Even with the long-term trend towards decarbonization, coal retains its significance as an “insurance” energy source in certain power systems, particularly during periods of weather stress and gas supply constraints.
Key observations for coal and electricity:
- Europe supports prices through stock strategies and energy supply reliability requirements.
- Asia remains the dominant consumer: demand depends on the industrial cycle and hydrology.
- Logistics (railroads, ports, coal quality) again becomes a price factor alongside the supply-demand balance.
What to Monitor for Investors and Energy Market Participants (24–48 hours)
The next 24 hours are rich with triggers that could shift sentiment regarding oil, gas, and oil products:
- US Inventory Statistics: Oil, gasoline, and distillate dynamics will set the tone for product cracks and spreads.
- US-Iran News: Any specific steps regarding the agreement parameters will be instantly reflected in Brent premiums and option volatility.
- Refinery Status in Europe and Eastern Europe: Reports of unscheduled outages quickly translate into diesel and export flow risks.
- Gas and LNG: Weather forecasts and withdrawal rates from storage in Europe, as well as competition for LNG parcels in Asia.
- Coal: Signals regarding the availability of export parcels and freight costs for shipments to Europe and South Asia.
The picture on February 18, 2026, for the global energy sector reflects a balancing market: oil responds to diplomacy and the recovery of production, gas in Europe appears resilient due to LNG and decreased consumption, while oil products and refineries create local deficits and premiums, particularly in diesel. Renewable energy and electricity continue a structural shift, but coal and gas remain crucial elements of energy system reliability. For investors, the optimal strategy involves monitoring inventories, news on sanction regimes, and refinery statuses: these factors today translate most rapidly into price movements across the entire chain—from oil and gas to oil products and electricity.
