Key Updates as of July 29, 2026: Numbers Shaping the Agenda
Below are the key indicators around which the current market discussion is built:
- $510 billion — global venture investments in the first half of 2026; Q1 accounted for $305 billion, Q2 another $205 billion across more than 5,000 companies.
- 43% — share of two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, in the global volume of venture funding for the half-year ($217 billion in total).
- Over 70% — share of artificial intelligence startups in global venture investments in the second quarter compared to about 50% a year earlier.
- $412.7 billion — venture investments in the U.S. for the half-year, of which $355.9 billion (86%) went to AI companies.
- $251 billion — raised in 86 American IPOs since the beginning of the year, more than five times higher than the total for 2025 ($47.4 billion).
- $113 billion — volume of acquisitions of startups at prices above $1 billion in the second quarter, a record for all time.
- 5.09 billion rubles — volume of the Russian venture market for the half-year, down 40% year-on-year with a twofold reduction in the number of deals.
Half-Year Records: Why $510 Billion Does Not Mean “The Market Has Returned”
The record volume of venture financing was not achieved through a broader funnel but through several giant funding rounds. The number of deals in the first half of the year has practically not increased, and on Asian markets, the number of transactions has dropped to a multi-year low despite record sums. In other words, the average ticket size has grown significantly while access to capital has narrowed.
Late-stage funding in the second quarter increased by about 141% year-on-year. This represents a fundamental shift in the behavior of venture funds: capital is not flowing into expanding portfolios of new names but into recapitalizing already proven leaders. For managers, this means a more predictable yet less asymmetric return profile; for LPs, it signals increased correlation between funds of different strategies.
Capital Concentration: The Main Risk on the Agenda
The situation where two companies absorb 43% of global venture capital for the half-year has no historical analogs. Adding to this is a geographical imbalance: about 88% of all investments in AI startups is attributed to companies headquartered in the U.S. At the same time, the U.S. share in the total volume for the second quarter has decreased from 83% to 66-67% — capital is simultaneously concentrating by sectors and internationalizing in geography.
For investment committees, this raises three practical questions:
- How diversified is the fund's portfolio if the bulk of sectoral returns are defined by just a few private companies?
- How to value “second-tier” AI startups when valuation benchmarks are set by rounds of unprecedented size?
- What will happen to the multipliers of the entire sector if even one of the leaders disappoints the public market?
End of July Deals: Where the Money Is Really Going
The last decade of July provided a telling snapshot of venture funds' priorities. The most notable funding rounds include:
- Etched — $300 million, Series C, inference chips, led by Sequoia.
- CuspAI — $450 million, Series B, AI for developing new materials (Kleiner Perkins, NEA).
- Meshy — around $400 million, Series B, 3D content generation.
- Glow — $180 million, Series A, cybersecurity (Sequoia, Cyberstarts).
- Cathedral — $160 million, defense cyber-AI (Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia).
- Humanoid — $152 million, Series A at a valuation of $1.35 billion; the first European "unicorn" in humanoid robotics.
- Neo — $100 million exiting “stealth,” application security in the age of AI agents.
Earlier in July, the market saw even larger transactions: $1.8 billion for the defense company Helsing, $1 billion for SambaNova Systems, $800 million for Together AI, $700 million for medical tech platform Neko, €411 million for the fusion project Proxima Fusion. The overall takeaway: venture capital is financing not so much applications as the "operating system" of the new economy — computing, energy, security, and robotic production systems.
Physical AI, Defense, and Deep Tech: The New Map of Priorities
Three themes are shaping the investment mood for the second half of 2026. The first is physical AI: models connected to hardware, from construction robots to industrial perception. The second is defense and sovereign technologies, where European startups are competing with American ones for the first time in a decade in terms of check sizes. The third is energy for data centers: fusion, geothermal, and grid projects are being financed as an infrastructure rather than a venture-class asset.
Notably, cybersecurity has become a derivative of the spread of AI agents: investors are financing companies that address problems created by generative models themselves. This is a sustainable "second-order" pattern, and it will remain a source of deals at least until the end of the year.
IPO Window 2026: Open, but Not for Everyone
The IPO market is experiencing its strongest comeback since 2021. By the end of July, there were 86 IPOs in the U.S. with a total volume of $251 billion; global receipts for the half-year reached $178 billion (+205% year-on-year) with 524 deals. Technology IPOs averaged a 44.5% increase on the first day of trading, and the combined valuation of companies in the IPO pipeline exceeded $2.1 trillion.
However, the structure of this record is as concentrated as that of venture capital. The SpaceX IPO, amounting to $85.7 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, accounted for about one-third of all funds raised this year. Anthropic applied on June 1 after a $65 billion round, while OpenAI applied confidentially on June 8 with a private valuation of $852 billion. Strava is preparing for an IPO with a valuation of about $2.2 billion. At the same time, Databricks publicly declined to list in 2026 in favor of 2027, discussing a private round with a valuation of $165-175 billion compared to $134 billion six months earlier. Canva and Cohere are currently viewed by the market as candidates for 2027.
M&A and Exits: The Best Quarter in Five Years
For the first time since 2021, exit dynamics have caught up with funding dynamics. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations above $1 billion, while another 24 were acquired at prices above $1 billion, totaling $113 billion — a record for all time. For venture funds, this means unlocking DPI: LP distributions have finally begun to return to levels that allow for a full cycle of re-subscribing to new funds.
Nevertheless, the quality of exits remains uneven. Large strategic acquisitions are concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and biotech, while medium-sized classic SaaS companies continue to exit at a discount compared to 2021 rounds.
Fundraising and Dry Powder: Capital Exists, but Access Is Limited
On a global scale, private markets hold about $3.9 trillion in unallocated capital, of which approximately $600 billion is directly attributable to venture funds. However, the share of successfully closed funds has dropped to about 57% compared to 94% in 2020 — LPs have become noticeably more selective, preferring proven platforms over new managers.
The practical implication for the market is that the gap between "top-quartile" and other funds continues to widen, and emerging managers are increasingly seeking deals through syndicates, SPVs, and joint investments with larger platforms.
Russia and the CIS: The Market in a Phase of Strict Selection
The Russian venture market is moving in the opposite direction to the global one. In the first half of 2026, the volume of venture investments amounted to 5.09 billion rubles — 40% less than the previous year. A total of 50 deals were made, half the number recorded in the first half of 2025, with an average ticket of 113.2 million rubles. The largest volume of investments went to artificial intelligence and machine learning — the sectoral focus matches the global one, but the scale does not.
Industry analysts compare current figures to the levels of 2009-2011. The logic of financing has structurally changed: with high key interest rates, the deposit and debt market competes with venture returns, prompting investors to require confirmed revenue, positive unit economics, and a clear path to profitability from startups, rather than just a “promising idea.” The main sources of capital remain corporate venture, industry funds, and club syndicates.
Conclusions for Venture Investors and Funds
The agenda as of July 29, 2026, boils down to four key theses:
- Record ≠ Broad Market. The aggregated $510 billion masks a narrowing funnel: capital is available to category leaders rather than the average startup.
- Concentration is a Standalone Risk. Portfolios whose returns depend on several AI leaders require stress-testing for the scenario of a disappointing debut from one of them.
- The Exit Window Is Open but Selective. Companies valued between $2-5 billion, with sustainable revenue and proximity to profitability, have a real chance to capitalize on the current IPO cycle.
- Infrastructure Stakes Outperform Application. Computing, energy, security, and physical AI present more secure positions than applications built on top of others' models.
The market has entered a phase where excess capital coincides with limited access to it. For venture funds and institutional investors, this signals a return to fundamental discipline: quality selection, rigorous valuation, and sober liquidity planning — regardless of how impressive the headline figures of the half-year may appear.
